Zhongtai: Moderately tilt toward the long side after the holiday; add further to positions and wait for a signal of a turning point in US Treasury yields.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that after the holiday, investors can moderately tilt toward the long side, with a turning point in US Treasury yields being the core condition for further adding to positions. 1) On the offensive side, continue to focus on technology, domestic semiconductor equipment, CSI 2000, and some non-ferrous metals. If the US-Iran negotiations make a breakthrough and long-end US Treasury yields clearly decline, positions in technology and small- and mid-cap stocks can be further increased. 2) In the portfolio, retain energy security assets such as power equipment, energy and chemicals, and oil shipping. When the situation eases and transportation costs decline, hedge positions can be appropriately reduced during rebounds; if disruptions in the Strait continue, these directions will still serve as tail-risk protection. 3) The capital flow situation in medical devices is worth watching. Real estate and building materials mainly trade on policy expectations, and position participation should remain restrained. Whether the post-holiday rebound can evolve into a larger rally depends on whether US Treasury yields, technology ETF absorption, and the return of institutional funds can improve in sync. I. Holding positions over the holiday was validated in overseas markets; the height of the A-share rebound depends on a turning point in US Treasury yields The judgment to hold positions over the holiday was validated in overseas markets, but A-share technology performed weaker than expected before the holiday. During the holiday, the Nasdaq hit a new high again, Japanese and South Korean stock markets were generally strong, and Hong Kong stocks were basically stable compared with before the holiday; A-share technology continued to adjust before the holiday, with rising long-end US Treasury yields as the main pressure. After the holiday, capital return and oversold repair are expected to drive a market rebound, but whether the rebound can escalate into a larger rally depends on whether US Treasury yields can show a major turning point. The pre-holiday capital structure already provided bottom signals. STAR 50 and ChiNext-related ETFs received relatively large absorption during the decline, turnover fell to a stage low, and the most urgent selling pressure clearly weakened; at the same time, institutional funds were still flowing out, and leverage deleveraging only slowed. This contrast shows that the market has a basis for a rebound, while the funding conditions for a sustained main upward move still need confirmation. In the week after the holiday, investors should simultaneously watch technology ETF absorption, institutional return, and US Treasury yields, with the latter still the core variable determining the height of the rebound. II. The core pressure from rising US Treasury yields comes from the hidden costs of the Middle East conflict, with debt and AI capital expenditure acting as amplifiers Relatively stable oil prices have not eliminated the real costs of the Strait being blocked. Warship escorts, detours, and high-risk transportation have restored part of crude oil flows, at the cost of sharply higher freight rates, insurance premiums, and discounts on producer-country exports. The transportation segment has gained excess returns, while the fiscal revenue of Gulf countries and profits in the crude oil industry chain have been squeezed; chemicals and key raw materials, in turn, are difficult to replicate crude oil's high-priced rush shipping, and the global supply chain still faces gaps. Fiscal pressure in Gulf countries, inflation and exchange rate pressure in Europe, Japan, and South Korea may all bond selling and reductions in US Treasury holdings. This explains the divergence of oil prices not spiraling out of control while US Treasury yields continue to rise. Existing debt and AI capital expenditure further amplify the interest rate shock. Global debt rollover, security and military spending, and manufacturing expansion continue to compete for funds; in an environment of high interest rates and blocked supply chains, every large investment and new borrowing by AI companies may push up the price of funds and in turn worsen their own financing burden. AI capital expenditure still supports industry prosperity, but the financing method has already become a transmission channel for valuation and credit risk. Sharply cutting welfare and existing debt and completely halting AI investment both lack a realistic basis; the more feasible path to ease interest rate pressure remains a de-escalation of the US-Iran situation and the restoration of low-cost passage through the Strait of Hormuz. III. October enters a key window; the US-Iran path determines the turning point, while AI and domestic policy provide bottom support October is a sensitive window for US-Iran policy changes. Oil prices, diesel prices, housing loan rates, and long-end US Treasuries are affecting the broader sensory experience of US voters, and intensive election activities will accelerate policy feedback. Recent communication signals show that both sides have begun to avoid the most difficult issues to resolve, such as the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and are leaving room for a partial agreement; the week after the Camp David meeting is a key window for judging whether Trump will truly adjust his stance. The baseline scenario is a partial arrangement before the election, with oil prices and US Treasury yields falling in sync; the risk scenario is that the agreement continues to be delayed, and military and policy disruptions first push rates up another step. If domestic political constraints in the US strengthen after the election, the sustainability of war spending and foreign policy will also decline, and the US Treasury turning point may be postponed until after the election or the beginning of a new congressional term. The global AI cycle is still in an upward phase, but it is more sensitive to interest rates. During the holiday, the Nasdaq hit a new high, model companies' revenue continued to improve, and a new generation of models entered a period of intensive releases, indicating that AI bears have not yet regained dominance. Industry fundamentals can explain why technology has a floor, while US Treasury yields determine whether valuations can expand. Going forward, it is necessary to track model company revenue, capital expenditure financing methods, and long-end rates simultaneously; the three will jointly determine the slope of the global technology rally. Domestic policy presents a weak reality and strong expectations. High-frequency data during the holiday were weak, and real estate interest subsidies reflected fiscal support for the first time, but the applicable conditions and intensity remain relatively restrained, continuing the "pragmatic and useful" policy orientation. Future policy will continue to target weak links in investment, consumption, and real estate, but constrained by fiscal space, global interest rates, and imported inflation, the actual policy intensity is expected to remain relatively restrained; however, it cannot be ruled out that the market, influenced by foreign media and other factors, may see a "policy turning expectation." Therefore, real estate, building materials, and similar sectors are more suitable as thematic trading opportunities.