AI + Space "Dual Engines" Launched! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Sets SpaceX (SPCX.US) Target as High as $230

Before SpaceX (SPCX.US) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on November 5, Eastern Time, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. released a research report in recent days in which it updated and raised its forecasts for the company's artificial intelligence (AI) business, including compute capacity, revenue, and margin projections, based on the company's recent transaction activity, latest public statements, and key enterprise use cases and model development progress. As the company continues to maintain a high level of execution capability, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. will also further outline potential compute monetization scenarios from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028, and believes that, absent a correction in the broader AI operating environment, its AI business forecasts for the next 6-18 months remain relatively conservative compared with market consensus. In addition, for the space business, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also discussed recent related news and considered how these developments may affect the company's long-term growth opportunities as launch frequency and reusability continue to improve in the coming years. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. framed this earnings preview around three key investor debates/questions: 1. Over the next roughly 12-18 months, how should investors view the buildout of terrestrial compute infrastructure? Based on management commentary, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes SpaceX has high visibility to expand terrestrial compute scale to 2.4GW by the end of 2026. Entering 2027, the key variables expected to drive terrestrial compute toward the 5-10GW range include: (a) power and cooling; (b) the main facility (i.e., data center infrastructure); and (c) server capacity. Its terrestrial compute capacity is expected to reach 7.0GW by the end of 2027 and 10.6GW by the end of 2028. All three variables remain dynamic, and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. will monitor developments over the coming months to assess the trajectory of terrestrial compute capacity. 2. What level of monetization can SpaceX achieve from terrestrial compute (how much revenue per GW)? Considering a series of recent company-level developments (including signing new hosting agreements, foundation model improvements, etc.), as well as broader industry dynamics (supply-demand imbalance, continued growth in token demand, etc.), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. remains optimistic about SpaceX's ability to monetize compute infrastructure at relatively high rates over the medium term. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. presented multiple scenario analyses for compute monetization and hosting agreements, and based on that, believes there is potential for the company's AI business revenue in the coming years to rise substantially above current market consensus. 3. How should recent Starship launches be understood, and what impact do they have on the connectivity and AI businesses? Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. emphasized that continued Starship launches and deployments will drive subsequent iterations and adjustments to the vehicle, enabling SpaceX to continue making progress and address technical obstacles. As these adjustments advance, the company is expected to move increasingly closer to achieving its goals in reusability and launch frequency. In addition, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes Starship will unlock a series of meaningful business opportunitiesincluding the current broadband/mobile communications business and future orbital compute businesscapable of both increasing capacity (e.g., downlink capacity) and improving unit economics. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reiterated its "Buy" rating on SpaceX in the report, raising its 12-month target price to $230 from $220, implying nearly 45% upside from Friday's closing price. The firm continues to believe SpaceX is well positioned to expand in the following areas: space business (launch and reusability), connectivity business (broadband and mobile satellite constellations), and AI business (compute, X, etc.). Over a time horizon of more than five years, each of these markets has the potential to develop into a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity. At the same time, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. remains bullish on the merged company's vertical integration strategy and the structural cost and competitive advantages it creates. The firm expects these advantages to further accumulate and gain momentum in the coming years.