BOCOM INTL: The U.S. rate hike cycle is not over, but may pause in October.

BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that it expects the U.S. rate hike cycle is not over, but the pace may be adjusted, and the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes in October. The report mentioned that before the release of the September employment data, interest rate futures markets showed the probability of a rate hike in October was less than 30%, with a December hike as the baseline scenario; after the data was released, the probability of an October hike further dropped to only about 20%. Although the September U.S. nonfarm payroll data was weak, it is not yet sufficient to make the Federal Reserve end its rate hike cycle. The bank believes the Federal Reserve will most likely continue to wait for more data, especially inflation data, before making a decision, and maintains its previous view that the Federal Reserve may raise rates one more time within the year, with the timing leaning toward December.