UBS: Raises SAMSONITE (01910) target price to HK$21.4, maintains "Buy" rating.

UBS released a research report stating that it has raised the target price for SAMSONITE (01910) from HK$20 to HK$21.4, maintaining a "Buy" rating. It expects third-quarter revenue to be slightly better than management's guidance of a 1.7% year-on-year decline, mainly due to improving global air passenger demand since the second quarter. It now expects third-quarter revenue decline to narrow to 0.9% at constant currency, with gross margin excluding tariff refunds roughly stable quarter-on-quarter at 60%; adjusted EBITDA to fall 14% year-on-year to US$123 million, implying an EBITDA margin of 14.3%. The bank noted that SAMSONITE's share price has fallen 36% year-to-date, and the market has cut its FY2026 and FY2027 earnings per share forecasts by 21% and 15%, respectively. Current buy-side expectations still reflect the risk of further earnings downgrades, but if third-quarter revenue meets expectations, it could help stabilize earnings expectations, limit further downward revisions to market expectations, and support share price performance. The bank raised its FY2028 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 3%, and its FY2027 to FY2028 forecasts by 8%, factoring in slightly better-than-expected organic sales trends in the second half of this year, as well as the revenue contribution from its brand BEIS being fully consolidated into the group's overall financials in the fourth quarter. After including the BEIS contribution, it expects SAMSONITE's fourth-quarter sales to grow 4.5% year-on-year at constant currency, and FY2027 growth of 8.5%.