Cui Dongshu: Chinese independent brands' share in Russia reached 54.2% in 2026.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, wrote that in 2026, Chinese independent brands' share in Russia reached a relatively high level of 54.2%, with good sales and profit performance. In 2026, a large number of models from international automakers entered the market, with German and Japanese brands performing relatively strongly, while the advantage of Korean brands weakened. From January to August 2026, Russian and European and American brands recovered, but the main force was actually the surge in imported Japanese and Korean models, with Nissan and Mazda achieving cumulative growth rates of 611% and 585% respectively, while Honda, Suzuki, Audi, and Volkswagen also achieved large increases of more than 200%. In August 2026, Russian car sales reached 124,000 units, down 8% year-on-year. From January to August, Russian car sales reached a relatively high level of 920,000 units, up 6% year-on-year. In August 2026, China exported 96,700 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 65,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales accounting for 68% of China's exports. From January to August, China exported 638,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 500,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales accounting for 78% of China's exports, generally relatively balanced. Chinese automakers are accelerating localized production and supply chain restructuring in Russia, with multiple measures improving the situation. First, in response to the tiered increase in Russian import tariffs, they are deepening the KD assembly model and establishing regional production bases. Through localized production, they avoid tariffs and shorten delivery cycles. They are building regional parts center warehouses, increasing the localization rate of core components to more than 60%, and reducing supply chain risks. Second, they are improving products with technology adaptation and special research and development for extremely cold environments. Third, they are upgrading the full-channel after-sales service system. In response to lagging maintenance response in remote areas of Russia, they are building a three-tier network of "central warehouse + mobile service vehicles + authorized repair points," increasing service coverage to more than 90%. Fourth, they are reshaping brand value and conducting precision marketing. Through technical endorsement and scenario-based marketing, they establish a high-end image, while also developing a Eurasian cross-border e-commerce platform, providing online configuration + offline vehicle pickup services, and using the RMB settlement system to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. I. Overall Trend of the Russian Market 1. Monthly Trend of the Russian Car Market Russian car market sales show severe fluctuations, with dramatic ups and downs in recent years. In 2021, the monthly trend of the Russian car market was relatively stable. In 2022, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, monthly sales reached a low level of less than about 30,000 units. With strong support from Chinese independent automakers, the Russian car market recovered to a level of about 100,000 units per month in 2023. In 2024, the Russian car market recovered to a scale of about 150,000 units. In the first half of 2025, the Russian car market declined greatly, and gradually recovered in the second half. In January-February 2026, the opening sales trend was stable, then gradually strengthened, and the 124,000-unit sales in August were weaker than the same period in 2025. 2. Annual Trend of the Russian Car Market Russia is a long-established world superpower. With the surge in oil prices before 2008, Russian car sales reached a scale of nearly 3 million units. After the Crimea crisis in 2014, annual sales fell from the previous 2.5 million-unit level to the 1.5 million-unit level. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, annual sales bottomed out at 687,000 units that year. In 2023, Russian car sales rebounded to 960,000 units. With China's guaranteed supply of automobiles, Russia's overall car sales in 2024 reached 1.83 million units, up 91% year-on-year, setting a recent annual sales high. In 2025, Russia's cumulative car sales were 1.49 million units, down 19% year-on-year. In August 2026, Russian car sales reached 124,000 units, down 8% year-on-year. From January to August, Russian car sales reached a relatively high level of 920,000 units, up 6% year-on-year. 3. Trend of Independent Brands' Exports to Russia and Local Sales In 2021, Chinese automakers sold only 157,000 vehicles in Russia, rising to 1.28 million in 2024, an increase of 1.12 million. Chinese automakers' strong exports are closely related to the gap and opportunities in the Russian market. In 2025, China exported 583,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 850,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales accounting for 146% of China's exports, finally achieving a trend of significant destocking. In August 2026, China exported 96,700 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 65,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales accounting for 68% of China's exports. From January to August, China exported 638,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 500,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales accounting for 78% of China's exports, generally relatively balanced. II. Russian Market Structure 1. Trend of Market Share in Russia Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian car market had long been occupied by foreign capital, with a relatively fragmented landscape. The main competitors in the Russian car market were European automakers, while Korean cars performed relatively stronger than Japanese cars. Chinese independent automakers performed relatively weakly, with a share of less than 10%. But after 2022, many foreign automakers temporarily withdrew and agreed to sell their shares to the Russian side, so these joint venture and foreign automakers shifted to the concept of Russian domestic automakers, and therefore the share of Russian domestic automakers rapidly rose to about 40% in 2023. At the same time, independent automakers seized the opportunity and quickly filled the high-end blank market vacated by European and American automakers, reaching a high of 58.3% in 2024. In 2026, Chinese independent brands' share in Russia reached a relatively high level of 54.2%, with good sales and profit performance. In 2026, a large number of models from international automakers entered, with German and Japanese brands performing relatively strongly, while the advantage of Korean brands weakened. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to sanctions and material shortages, international automakers successively withdrew from the Russian market. Chinese automakers had already gradually risen in the Russian market by early 2021, but their share was about 5%. In 2023, Chinese independent automakers seized the characteristics of relatively strong demand and insufficient supply in the Russian domestic market and achieved a breakthrough of more than 50% share. In 2024, independent brands' monthly share in Russia in the second half of the year again exceeded 60%, achieving strong growth for Chinese automakers. In 2025, the share of Chinese independent automakers in Russia rebounded to 57%. Heavy trucks fell sharply, and in August 2026, independent automakers still had a 52.7% share in Russia, a relatively low level in 2026. 2. Analysis of Russia's New Energy Demand Structure New energy sales in the Russian car market are relatively low. Because new energy vehicles from European, American, Japanese, and Korean automakers are relatively poor, Russia had very few new energy vehicles before 2023. But with the entry of Chinese automakers, new energy became favored by Russian wealthy consumers, with pure electric performance excellent. Subsequently, models such as Li Auto sold well in Russia, bringing the Russian characteristic that plug-in hybrid sales have been higher than pure electric since 2025. In 2026, the Russian market improved, and by August it already showed a stable recovery in new energy. III. Trend of Brand Structure in Russia 1. Russian Trend of Major Brands in 2026 Russian automobile imports currently have three methods: natural person imports, legal person batch imports, and legal person parallel imports. Adjustments to parallel import policy benefit Chinese automakers' official exports, and adjustments to the recycling tax policy close the low-tariff gray channel from neighboring countries. Regarding the recycling tax, this year Russia stipulated that for automobiles imported from Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, the saved tariff costs must be paid in Russia as a "recycling tax," closing the low-tariff gray channel from neighboring countries. Parallel import or personal import channels are also gradually tightening. Since the end of 2025, models with more than 160 horsepower no longer qualify for the low personal import rate (originally about 3,400 rubles), and must pay the full commercial tax rate, which can reach more than 750,000 to 1 million rubles. The "power-linked" algorithm introduced in 2026, as well as the "full difference payment" customs clearance formula for Central Asian transit (such as Kyrgyzstan), further compressed the space for gray trade channels. Chinese cars sold in Russia are suitable for legal person batch imports. Russia prohibits Chinese cars from using the legal person parallel import channel, which in fact avoids low-price competition from unauthorized dealers and is conducive to Chinese automakers' official export sales. Recently, Li Auto began an official dealership model in Russia. JELAND is a Russian domestic automobile brand created by Russia's AGR Group in cooperation with China's Defetoo. In essence, it is Chery Jaecoo (Jetour Traveler series) and Omoda rebadged + Russian localized CKD assembly, produced at the former GM plant in St. Petersburg and the former Volkswagen plant in Kaluga, and officially launched for sale in Russia in 2026. Sales of international automaker brands in Russia overall still remain relatively high, with Japanese and Korean brands performing relatively strongly, especially Mazda, Hyundai-Kia, Toyota, and others. BMW and Mercedes-Benz have relatively good average monthly sales performance in 2026, while other international automakers also have certain sales characteristics and demand. 2. Russian Trend of Independent Brands Due to weaker technology and product strength, Russian domestic automobiles are mainly concentrated in the lower-priced low-end market. In the earlier period, the sales champion in the Russian car market was Lada, mainly because it was cheap, policy-protected, and met Russians' car usage needs. Chinese independent automakers, relying on strong technological improvement and industrial chain advantages, have performed relatively strongly in Russia. Chery maintained an average monthly sales level of nearly 20,000 vehicles in 2026. In particular, Chery (09973) achieved a good situation in Russia with multiple brands realizing comprehensive development through localized production, rebadged contract manufacturing, and imported vehicles, also achieving the development characteristic of "more children make for a better fight." Geely (00175) also achieved super-strong growth in Russia, with relatively strong performance from localized contract-manufactured products and imported models, especially products such as Zeekr performing extremely well. Other Chinese automakers are also strong, and products such as BAIC have also performed relatively strongly in Russia. 3. Overall Performance of New Energy Vehicles in Russia Is Good Chinese auto brands occupy the mid-to-high-end market in Russia. Chinese automakers have significant advantages in technology and products. Combined with factors such as tariffs, transportation costs, and dealer margins, Chinese brand models are priced higher in Russia than in China. Recently, Russia included high-end fuel vehicles and electric vehicles made in China in the luxury car taxation list, covering models priced above 10 million rubles. Sales of Chinese independent new energy vehicles in the Russian car market have generally performed well, especially high-end models such as extended-range and narrow-sense plug-in hybrids, achieving a good performance in replacing European and American luxury cars. Among new energy vehicles, brands such as Li Auto, Zeekr, and Voyah are relatively prominent, and these brands have extremely strong performance characteristics. Brands such as AITO, BYD Company Limited, and Xiaomi also have certain sales performance. The latest products, such as Xiaomi and AITO's high-end models with the strongest intelligent connectivity, also perform well. 4. European and American Brands in Russia Are Gradually Recovering From January to August 2026, Russian overseas brand registration data show that European and American brands recovered, but the main force was actually the surge in imported Japanese and Korean models, with Nissan and Mazda achieving cumulative growth rates of 611% and 585% respectively. Honda, Suzuki, Audi, and Volkswagen also achieved large increases of more than 200%, with most vehicles sourced from Chinese factories and entering through parallel channels; luxury brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz only recovered moderately. JELAND of Russia's AGR Group, relying on Chery's technology platform for rebadged localized production, is precisely a typical practice of Chinese automakers' "more children make for a better fight" overseas expansion approach. Sales of Solaris (formerly Hyundai platform) under the same group continued to come under pressure, forming complementary competition within the product echelon. Parallel imports fluctuate extremely strongly due to supply sources and customs clearance. For example, Skoda's August sales plunged 83%. Having a base in China is very important.