New Stock Preview | Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan Nets 976 Million Yuan in Half a Year: A Single Mine Carries All Profits, Resources Are Both a Moat and a Vulnerability

Title context: New Stock Preview | Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan Nets 976 Million Yuan in Half a Year: A Single Mine Carries All Profits, Resources Are Both a Moat and a Vulnerability Text: As global capital markets fixate on the new energy and AI waves, a mining giant deeply rooted in South China is quietly converting its resource advantages into astonishing profit momentum. On September 22, Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan") officially submitted a main board listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC SEC as sole sponsor. It is understood that Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan is a leading polymetallic mining company in South China, primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, ore processing, comprehensive utilization, and sales of copper, sulfur, and other polymetallic mineral resources. The company's sole mining asset, the Dabaoshan Mine, is a large-scale open-pit polymetallic mine. In the first half of 2026, the company's half-year profit surpassed that of the entire previous year, demonstrating astonishing profitability. Now, this largest polymetallic mining company in South China is knocking on the door of international capital with its stunning earnings breakout. But questions follow how much of this explosive performance is the company's own doing, and how much is simply the cycle standing on its side? One Mine Carries All Profits, Half-Year Net Profit of 976 Million Yuan Exceeds Full Year GMTEight observes that Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan's investment value is primarily rooted in its unique resource endowment. The company's sole core asset the Dabaoshan Mine is located in the core area of the Nanling metallogenic belt, a state-planned mining zone and a key exploration area in Guangdong Province. It officially commenced production in 1996 and completed a strategic transformation and upgrade in 2017, transitioning from a single iron ore product mining enterprise to a comprehensive mining company focused on the development of copper, sulfur, and various associated metals. In terms of capacity, the Dabaoshan Mine has an approved mining production scale of 3.3 million tons per year, supported by a specialized copper-sulfur processing plant with a processing capacity of 3.6 million tons per year. Its core products include copper concentrate, sulfur concentrate, and magnetic sulfur concentrate, along with large-scale output of ancillary products such as stone materials. According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2025, the company ranked first in South China in copper concentrate output and third nationwide in sulfur concentrate output. The total potential economic value of the mineral resources within the mining area exceeds RMB 100 billion, with proven and controlled copper-sulfur mineral resources totaling 91.31 million tons. Leafing through the prospectus, it is not difficult to find that Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan's performance in recent years has been remarkably impressive, making it a "top student" in the cyclical industry. From 2023 to 2025, the company's revenue grew from 1.596 billion yuan to 2.193 billion yuan, while net profit soared from 348 million yuan to 849 million yuan, with a three-year compound annual growth rate of 56.2%. By the first half of 2026, net profit surged directly to 976 million yuan earning more in half a year than in the entire previous year. Generally speaking, it is rare for mining companies to deliver such results. The industry is typically shaped by cyclical characteristics, with income statements prone to swinging wildly with copper and sulfur prices. Yet Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan has achieved three consecutive years of accelerating profit growth, with net profit growth reaching 160.3% in the first half of 2026 truly eye-catching. At the same time, Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan's profitability has achieved a qualitative leap: gross margin climbed continuously from 44.1% in 2023 to 70.0% in the first half of 2026, while net margin jumped from 21.8% in 2023 to 52.7% in the first half of 2026. This is mainly attributable to two major factors: First, product mix optimization the company's sulfur concentrate gross margin rose significantly from 29.7% in 2023 to 74.6% in the first half of 2026, surpassing copper concentrate for the first time to become the largest revenue source. Second, outstanding cost control capabilities from 2023 to 2025, the cumulative increase in full-year cost of sales over three years was only 3.1%, far below the cumulative revenue growth of 37.4% over the same period, demonstrating extremely strong cost control capabilities. Alongside the rapid growth in revenue and net profit, Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan's operating cash flow is also relatively abundant. In the first half of 2026, the company's net operating cash flow reached 1.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 144.3%. Meanwhile, the company adopts a "payment before delivery" model, with receivables turnover days maintained at an extremely low level of 5.1 days over the long term, virtually eliminating bad debt risk. This means that Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan's profits have not remained trapped in accounts receivable but have been genuinely converted into cash. Additionally, as of the end of June 2026, the company had no interest-bearing bank borrowings whatsoever, with the debt-to-asset ratio dropping significantly from 42.5% in 2023 to 2.1%. Financial burden during the period was also significantly lightened, with financing costs of only 13.12 million yuan in the first half of 2026. Extremely low debt pressure greatly reduces interest erosion, and combined with ample room for retained earnings, this lays a solid financial foundation for continued shareholder returns and high-ratio dividend distributions. From the above, it can be seen that Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan's unique resource endowment, near-zero-debt financial structure, and billion-level operating cash flow this financial foundation is enough to make most mining companies envious. However, it should be noted that the 70% gross margin is a product of the triple cycle resonance of copper, sulfur, and molybdenum, rather than a norm that transcends cycles. Copper-Sulfur Track Has a Long Runway, but Commodity Cycles Remain the Biggest Variable Combined with industry trends, the copper-sulfur industry in which Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan operates is ushering in historic development opportunities, and its investment logic may extend beyond short-term earnings elasticity. From a sector fundamentals perspective, copper is transforming from a traditional power metal into a strategic metal needed jointly by new energy, power grids, and AI computing infrastructure. New energy vehicles, wind and solar energy storage, data center liquid cooling, and grid upgrades continue to drive copper demand. On the supply side, however, global new copper mine exploration, environmental assessment, and production cycles are lengthy, with new capacity being released slowly. Global copper mine supply remains tight, China's copper ore external dependence remains high, and high-quality producing copper mine resources domestically are scarce. Calculated by metal content, China's copper concentrate market grew from approximately 7.5 million tons in 2021 to approximately 9.4 million tons in 2025, and is expected to reach approximately 11.3 million tons by 2030. Globally, constrained by long development cycles, high capital expenditure, and continuously declining grades at producing mines, new copper mine supply growth is limited. Therefore, according to Frost & Sullivan, copper prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels over the next five years, and are projected to reach approximately RMB 110,552.9 per ton by 2030. As for sulfur concentrate, a basic raw material for the fertilizer and chemical industries, domestic environmental protection policies continue to tighten, small and medium-sized mines are gradually being phased out, and the supply of stable, high-quality sulfur raw materials remains persistently scarce. It is understood that driven by the rigid demand for agricultural fertilizers, expanding applications in new energy materials, and the expansion of non-ferrous metal smelting, China's sulfur concentrate market size is expected to grow from approximately 20.1 million tons in 2025 to approximately 22.8 million tons by 2030. At the same time, industry concentration continues to increase, and enterprises with resource endowments and operational efficiency will benefit. Furthermore, according to Frost & Sullivan, since the sulfur produced as a by-product of petroleum processing has prices significantly affected by international oil price fluctuations, prices are expected to remain elevated. Although the copper-sulfur industry in which Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan operates presents outstanding development opportunities, investors also need to be clearly aware of its potential risks. First, commodity price fluctuation risk. The company's performance is highly positively correlated with copper and sulfur prices. The earnings explosion in the first half of 2026 was essentially the result of triple cycle resonance: high copper prices, surging sulfur, and strengthening molybdenum prices. All three commodities being at price highs simultaneously is historically uncommon. Once the price center of any one commodity declines, the mean-reversion pressure on gross margin will immediately manifest. It is understood that copper prices are simultaneously disturbed by multiple factors including Federal Reserve monetary policy, dollar strength, global macroeconomic conditions, and real estate and new energy demand, with extremely large price fluctuations. Second, the pressure of mine service life and holding only one mine. All of Dabaoshan's revenue comes from this single mine in Shaoguan, with a mine service life of approximately 13 years, and the renewal approval of the mining license requires continuous attention. Any operational disruption whether safety issues, environmental penalties, or approval delays would impact the company's fundamentals. Without a second mine as a buffer, this is a structural vulnerability. In addition, continuous green mine transformation, tailings management, and ecological restoration all require sustained investment, with long-term environmental remediation costs. The energy transition extends copper's long demand runway, but the cyclical fluctuations of commodities will not disappear because of a long-term story. Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan sits on scarce copper-sulfur resources and benefits from tight supply and rising industry concentration, with a clear growth logic. However, single-mine dependence, service life, license renewal, and the risk of price resonance decline caused by cyclical fluctuations remain constraints that cannot be ignored. Conclusion In summary, it is not difficult to see that Guangdong Rising Dabaoshan Copper Industry's Hong Kong listing leverages its astonishing resource endowment, strong profitability, healthy financial structure, and long-term industry prosperity to construct a highly attractive investment story. However, for investors, it is still necessary to distinguish between "the certainty of resource endowment" and "the uncertainty of metal prices." A mine's reserves are visible, but cyclical turning points always require prudent judgment.