Preview of US Stock Market | U.S. stock index futures all rise as key nonfarm payrolls data looms; Toshiba's HDD expansion plan deals a heavy blow to the storage sector.

Pre-market Market Movements 1. On Friday, October 2, before the U.S. stock market opened, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.46%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.46%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.58%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.84%, the UK's FTSE 100 index was up 0.11%, France's CAC 40 index was up 0.38%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.47%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.09% to $90.00 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.28% to $99.98 per barrel. Market News Major nonfarm payrolls data looms! September new nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall to 90,000: The real "explosive point" in tonight's nonfarm payrolls may lie in whether the August data is significantly revised down. The market expects 90,000 new jobs, below the initial August reading of 162,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month over month; among these, the abnormal performance of August seasonal adjustments and potential downward revisions are important variables for interpreting this report: a downward revision to the previous month and relatively strong September job gains may appear at the same time, so the two-month cumulative increase and the revised trend better reflect employment momentum than a single headline number. Initial jobless claims and continuing claims, ADP, and business surveys overall support the view that the labor market remains resilient, but consumers' perception of job opportunities continues to weaken, leaving room for surprises in both directions. At the same time, moderate inflation data and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials have already reduced the probability of an October rate hike from about 70% earlier in the week to about 25% on Thursday, and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also pushed back its expectation for the next rate hike to December. After several consecutive weeks of selling, the U.S. Treasury market finally staged a clear rebound, but traders did not change their basic judgment on subsequent rate hikes because of it. As the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from a 24-year high, market attention turned to the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report to be released Friday evening Beijing time: if employment only cools moderately, it may be difficult for the bond market to sustain its rebound; only employment and wage data significantly weaker than expected could force investors to massively withdraw rate-hike bets. Bond traders currently do not need to see employment continue to slow; they need to see data weak enough to shake the Federal Reserve's tightening path. A Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. model estimates that CTAs hold about $390 billion in global bond shorts, with U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury shorts close to 99% and 100% of their historical maximums, respectively, while the S&P 500's implied daily move has fallen to about 0.67%-0.70%. If employment cools moderately and wage pressures remain contained, falling rates could help ease pressure on equity valuations; if the data is clearly weak or the previous month is sharply revised down, it could push rate-hike expectations further into retreat and trigger short covering by trend-following strategies, amplifying bond gains; if employment and wages are stronger than expected, it could re-lift rate-hike pricing and expose risk assets once again to the shock of "good economic news, bad valuation news." Another major potential "explosive point" in this report can be said to lie in the resonance between a reassessment of the employment trend and crowded positioning in the bond market. Macron plans to convene G7 to stabilize oil prices, and expectations of reserve releases push crude oil lower. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with U.S. and Canadian leaders local time on October 2 and plans to convene a Group of Seven leaders' meeting as soon as possible to help curb the continued rise in fuel prices, focusing on easing tight global refined product supply. According to a statement from the French presidential office, France, which holds the G7 rotating presidency this year, is actively working with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to coordinate measures aimed at easing price pressure and safeguarding crude oil and refined product supply. Macron stressed that it is in the common interest for G7 countries to "act together without imposing energy export restrictions." Overall coordination at the European level is also advancing. European countries have been holding emergency consultations on how to respond to Washington's pressure to release strategic fuel reserves and avoid a possible U.S. energy export ban. Facing global market turmoil triggered by the GEO Group Inc political war, Europe has moved significantly more slowly than the United States to tap emergency oil reserves, so the region still has a considerable scale of reserves available for release. Iran is reportedly making "worst-case preparations": if the U.S. resumes strikes, it will definitely not respond only symbolically. Some media reports said that multiple senior Iranian officials and people familiar with the matter said Tehran internally believes that if the United States launches another large-scale attack, Iran cannot respond merely with symbolic action, but the relevant military options are still under review and no final decision has been made. Since Iranian President Pezeshkian returned to Tehran from New York last week, senior Iranian officials and military commanders have been discussing the scope and timing of a response if the United States attacks again. Three senior Iranian officials and one person familiar with the discussions said potential targets may no longer be limited to military assets directly linked to the United States, but may also expand to countries that provide support for U.S. military operations, and even involve locations outside the Middle East. The Fed's "No. 2 and No. 3 officials" successively turned dovish, suppressing a host of hawkish voices, as the Federal Reserve calmed the market's aggressive expectations for an October rate hike. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson spoke on Thursday, using wording highly consistent with New York Fed President John Williams' remarks earlier this week, with both emphasizing the need for more time to assess data before deciding the next policy move. Because "No. 2 figure" Jefferson and "No. 3 figure" Williams both belong to the informal core leadership group supporting Chair Warsh, the "troika," their coordinated remarks were interpreted by the market as reflecting the collective will of the Fed's top leadership rather than the personal view of an individual official. Affected by this, the probability priced by the federal funds futures market for a rate hike at the October FOMC meeting plunged from about 70% earlier in the week to about 25%, and the market's expected focus has clearly shifted to December. Although hawkish officials such as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also spoke on Thursday, insisting that inflation is still too high and further tightening is needed, their voices were clearly overshadowed by Jefferson's dovish remarks. Individual Stock News Toshiba splurges 60 billion yen to expand HDD production and plans to double capacity, storage-themed stocks broadly weakened pre-market, with Seagate down more than 13% pre-market. As of press time, shares of U.S. HDD storage giant Seagate plunged more than 13% in U.S. pre-market trading, as the market began to reassess the supply-demand landscape of the HDD storage industry against the backdrop of AI data center expansion. On October 2, according to Japanese media reports, Toshiba plans to invest about 60 billion yen to expand its HDD plant in the Philippines, aiming to double production capacity for hard drives for AI data centers by fiscal 2027. For U.S. HDD giants Seagate and Western Digital Corporation, a major capacity expansion by a competitor means that although demand for high-capacity HDDs from AI data centers is still showing exponential growth, industry supply will also increase in tandem, and the currently tight supply-demand relationship may gradually ease around the end of this year, so the market is worried that Seagate's future market share and pricing power will come under pressure. In recent years, the expansion of AI data centers has continued to drive up demand for high-capacity HDDs. Compared with SSDs, which cost about 20 times as much as HDDs, HDDs remain an important choice for large-scale data storage due to their cost advantage. Seagate said in January this year that its nearline HDD capacity for 2026 was fully sold out, indicating that industry supply is still tight. Toshiba's expansion this time also sends a clear signal: HDD demand growth brought by AI is still continuing, but manufacturers have already begun to compete for incremental markets by expanding capacity and increasing per-drive capacity. As Toshiba and Western Digital Corporation successively step up investment, the market's focus is shifting from demand growth itself to whether new supply will change the current tight balance in the HDD industry. Well-known Apple Inc. leaker reveals Apple Inc.'s next "killer product": the first Siri AI home hub and touchscreen MacBook Pro may arrive as soon as October. Apple Inc. product leaker Mark Gurman, who has repeatedly accurately revealed iPhone update details in advance, dropped several major exclusives in succession: the touchscreen MacBook Pro may appear as soon as October, Apple Inc.'s smart home hub has "already been stocked in global warehouses," the value of iPhone 18 Pro upgrades is questionable, and Apple Inc. is replacing traditional media coverage with influencer marketing. Gurman revealed that Apple Inc.'s internally codenamed "J490" AI smart home Hub Group, Inc. Class A (Smart Home Hub) will be the key to breaking the deadlock. "This is Apple Inc.'s next 'Big Thing,' and it is only weeks away from release." Gurman stressed. He pointed out that Apple Inc.'s past attempts in the smart home space, such as iPod Hi-Fi and the early HomePod, were "half-finished products," but J490 will completely change that. The device is described as "the Amazon.com, Inc. Echo Show made by Apple Inc. in the Apple Inc. universe," equipped with an approximately 6-inch square touchscreen. Its biggest selling point lies in a brand-new operating system. "If Siri AI had an operating system, rather than merely being an app or interface on a phone, what would it look like? This is the answer." Gurman quoted the original words as saying that the system combines features of Watch OS and standby mode, and "voice will become the primary interface interaction element." Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) syndicate reportedly begins raising $60 billion to supply chip "ammunition" for Anthropic and others. According to people familiar with the matter, Broadcom Inc.'s (AVGO.US) Wall Street syndicate is preparing to raise $60 billion in new financing for artificial intelligence (AI) chip purchases, with beneficiaries to include Anthropic PBC and other companies. The people said banks participating in the massive debt package are preparing to issue a syndication distribution letter for a $42 billion Class A senior secured loan. Because the transaction has not yet been announced, these people requested anonymity. The people said Blackstone Inc. (BX.US) is leading a $18 billion Class B subordinated debt tranche, committing $9 billion from multiple funds under its management and planning to syndicate the remainder. It is said that this financing has been in the works for weeks and is being closely watched by Wall Street and Silicon Valley professionals to judge whether investors are still keen to support AI infrastructure construction at a time when data center construction is facing public opposition. Broadcom Inc. wants to sell more chips and other data center equipment to challenge NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US); while AI companies such as Anthropic need to continuously expand computing power. People familiar with the matter said in August that this potential transaction will help companies such as Anthropic obtain chips and other key AI infrastructure. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) ad tech monopoly damages case allowed to proceed: publishers can seek more than $3.2 billion in total. A federal judge in New York ruled that USA Today Co., Daily Mail General and Trust Plc, and a class composed of large publishers may seek more than $3.2 billion in damages over harm caused by Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s Alphabet Inc. Class C monopolization of the ad tech market. In an opinion late local time Wednesday, U.S. District Judge P. Kevin Castel in Manhattan said he would allow a jury trial on how Alphabet Inc. Class C's conduct related to its ad exchange AdX harmed major publishers. He ruled that a class of about 5,000 publishers may seek about $1.7 billion from Alphabet Inc. Class C and rejected the company's request to challenge the damages calculation. He found that USA Today and the Daily Mail, which sued separately, would be allowed to seek about $900 million and $600 million, respectively. Alphabet Inc. Class C said in a statement that the ruling also dismissed claims by some publishers using different ad-buying tools, and the company will "defend the remainder in court." Anthropic reportedly sets October 14 pre-IPO investor day, aiming for a November listing. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic PBC is scheduled to meet with potential investors local time on October 14 to prepare for its initial public offering (IPO), as the company pushes forward with a potentially heavyweight listing plan even amid scrutiny over AI safety. The people said invitations for the event were just sent out recently, when a select group of institutional investors will have the opportunity to ask questions of company executives. One of the people said the event will be held at the company's headquarters in San Francisco. This timing would put the Claude developer on track for an expected November listing. According to prior reports, Anthropic may begin formally marketing the IPO as early as the week of November 9, potentially allowing trading to begin before Thanksgiving. The people cautioned that IPO details could still change and requested anonymity because the information has not been made public. An Anthropic spokesperson declined to comment. People familiar with the matter previously said investors view Anthropic's fair valuation at between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion. The company expects its IPO size to match or exceed SpaceX's IPO. Important Economic Data and Event Preview Beijing time 20:30: U.S. September unemployment rate, U.S. September seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (in tens of thousands) Beijing time 22:00: U.S. August factory orders month over month, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers welcome remarks at the Fifth "Macroeconomic Effects of Immigration Symposium." Beijing time 01:00 the next day: Total U.S. oil rig count for the week ending October 2 (units)