Morgan Stanley: Expects China's share of global export market to rise from the current 15% to 16.5% by 2030.

Morgan Stanley: Expects China's share of the global export market to rise from the current 15% to 16.5% by 2030. Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that despite trade tensions, China continues to deepen its position in global supply chains by increasing its share of value added in global imports and expanding exports to emerging markets. The bank expects this trend to continue, driving China's share of the global export market from the current 15% to 16.5% by 2030. Morgan Stanley pointed out that despite the rise of protectionist measures, China's participation in global supply chains is still deepening. Since 2017, China's market share in global exports has risen by 2 percentage points; according to the bank's estimates, China's share of value added in global imports excluding China has also risen by 2 percentage points, and this increase broadly covers most manufacturing sectors. The bank said China is at the forefront of emerging industries, relying on innovation and proprietary technology to occupy a dominant position. Due to its highly integrated domestic supply chain, China plays a key role in supplying low-cost parts and high-end capital goods. As the bank previously emphasized, China's policymakers have already begun planning for the next stage of the industrial cycle. As the world enters the era of Embodied AI, China has already established a dominant position in Siasun Robot&Automation and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, and is working to apply embodied intelligence to industrial scenarios. Morgan Stanley said that since 2017, U.S. tariff and non-tariff measures have caused China's share of U.S. imports to fall by 14 percentage points, but the bank's estimates found that the share of value added from China in U.S. imported goods has actually remained stable. In other words, the United States is in fact indirectly importing goods from China. However, considering that China's share of value added in imports by the rest of the world rose by 2 percentage points over the same period, the United States has at least achieved stability in controlling the share of Chinese content in its imports. Morgan Stanley said that for the rest of the world, especially emerging market countries, their trade relations with China are continuing to deepen. These countries not only rely on China to meet domestic demand, but also rely on China to supply parts and various components needed to expand exports. For example, although India has made significant progress in electronics manufacturing, it still needs to import large quantities of intermediate goods and capital goods from China.