Prediction markets are bullish on September nonfarm payrolls: 60% probability of an increase of over 90,000, nearly half chance of six-figure growth.

Prediction market traders expect Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report could once again show strength. After the U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, beating expectations, Kalshi traders see a 60% probability that September job gains will exceed 90,000. At the same time, the odds of the September employment report once again posting six-figure growthmeaning job gains of 100,000 or moreare close to a coin flip. That expectation is more optimistic than the consensus forecast of 84,000 among economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Polymarket traders likewise put the probability of six-figure job gains in the September employment report at about 50%. On these prediction markets, traders are typically asked to judge whether U.S. job gains in a given month will exceed a specific threshold, and the related contracts ultimately settle based on official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Although the labor market showed signs of fatigue earlier in the summer, the August employment report indicated some rebound in the job market. That also gives Federal Reserve policymakers more room to shift their attention to their inflation mandate, which remains above target, and to raise interest rates at their September meeting. The September employment report will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. Before that, the ADP National Employment Report will be released Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time.