CITIC SEC: Long holidays may boost service-oriented consumption; beauty, medical aesthetics, and jewelry are expected to sustain strong momentum.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that the characteristics of the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday meet the conditions for a "3 days off, 13 days break" long holiday, which may drive strong travel demand and generally shift demand from places of residence to travel destinations, and further shift goods-based consumption toward service-oriented consumption. With the establishment of major domestic beauty products, the beauty category is gradually entering the gift track dominated by food and alcohol, and attention should be paid to beauty brands that are stepping up gift marketing; the long holiday is expected to catalyze the continued prosperity of medical aesthetics institutions, with new products emerging on the product side, and attention should be paid to new product validation during the peak sales season; in the jewelry track, attention should be paid to domestic and overseas gold price spreads and overall sales momentum, while the pressure on wedding demand should not be ignored. The main views of CITIC SEC are as follows: Beauty: Amid structural divergence, efforts should focus on incremental holiday gift-giving demand. Since 2026, the beauty industry has generally shown characteristics of steady total volume and structural divergence, among which high-end and international brands have performed more strongly, while rising traffic costs have further pressured the profitability of local brands. The "618 shopping festival" showed a strong siphon effect, and since the second half of the year, the growth rate of cosmetics retail sales has shown some decline (year-on-year growth rates for June/July/August were +12.6% /+6.8%/+4.9%, respectively, data from the National Bureau of Statistics). Holiday gift boxes have become an important incremental driver for brands, with brands seizing holiday gift-giving demand and increasing marketing efforts, mostly using strategies of "self-broadcast matrix + tiered KOL breakout." Top-selling products include but are not limited to: according to Chanmama, CHICMAX (02145)'s KANS brand upgraded its Red Waist products in September and increased investment in Red Waist sets; L'Oreal launched the L'Oreal Revitalift Mid-Autumn limited-edition gift box; GIANT BIOGENE (02367)'s COMFY launched a National Day travel mask gift box. Medical aesthetics: Institutional prosperity is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to new product validation during the peak sales season. Medical aesthetics require some time for wound recovery after treatment, and long holidays are the peak season for medical aesthetics demand. In addition, if this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day allow a longer "3 days off, 13 days break" holiday, it is expected to further catalyze medical aesthetics demand, and the prosperity of medical aesthetics institutions is expected to continue. On the product side, new products have successively been approved for launch. According to company announcements, since the second half of 2026, Imeik Technology Development launched the exclusively represented botulinum toxin brand "Jiesuo Cheng," and its Shanghai Weimai launched "Hi-Sculpt," among others; Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited introduced VAIM GLOBAL's JUVELOOK, which has been approved. New products are entering their first peak-season validation, with focus on product feedback and sales data. Jewelry: The pressure on wedding demand should not be ignored, and attention should be paid to peak-season sales and domestic and overseas gold price spreads. Holidays are the peak season for purchasing gold and jewelry products. Although the share of wedding demand has continued to decline in recent years, the proportion of wedding-related consumption during holiday spending remains relatively high. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in 2024, affected by the lunar "widow year," the number of marriages hit a historic low, and part of the marriage demand shifted to 2025 (6.76 million couples/year-on-year +10.8%), resulting in a relatively high base for wedding demand in 2025 (carrying over part of the demand postponed from 2024); in 2026H1, the number of marriages was 3.275 million couples/year-on-year -7.5%. The bank expects that wedding demand in 2026H2 may continue to come under pressure, which may weigh on jewelry sales, especially during holidays. In addition, during holidays, the Shanghai gold market is closed, and fluctuations in overseas gold prices and the widened gold price spread versus Shanghai gold will affect consumption decisions. If overseas gold prices rise, it will catalyze domestic gold consumption. Offline retail: Against the backdrop of weak demand recovery, offline sales are generally under pressure, mall adjustments and renovations continue, and attention should be paid to structural opportunities. Since 2026, social retail sales growth has slowed, and demand has generally shown a weak recovery; Mid-Autumn Festival performance was stable. According to business big data from the Ministry of Commerce, during the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival, the average daily sales of key national retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.1% compared with the same lunar period last year; the customer flow and sales of 78 pedestrian streets (business districts) under key monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 6.4% and 5.1%, respectively. Some categories performed prominently, with smart, green, and health products selling well. Sales of smart wearable devices on key platforms increased 1.2 times, Siasun Robot&Automation sales increased 93.1%, organic food sales increased 36.3%, and outdoor sports equipment sales increased 30.2%. Offline retail enterprises are actively reducing costs and improving efficiency, adjusting and transforming; after long-term adjustments, Chongqing Group has deployed four major commercial complexes in Chongqing Guanyinqiao business districtCentury Xindu, Sunshine Century Outlets, Chongbai Dream Factory, and New Century CenterYingli Huicovering high-end boutique consumption, urban outlet discount consumption, domestic animation and trendy toy niche consumption, and trendy social lifestyle consumption, respectively. Risk factors: A surge in traffic and marketing expenses erodes net profit margin; stock consolidation and disorderly competition erode performance; the effects of various reforms may fall short of expectations; gold prices fluctuate beyond expectations; major public opinion and other black swan events.