Sinolink: TV panel makers issue price increase letters; National Day holiday maintenance adjusts supply and demand.

Sinolink released a research report stating that TrendForce data shows that TV panel prices stabilized across the board in September 2026, with average prices for 65-inch, 55-inch, 43-inch, and 32-inch panels at US$173, US$123, US$63, and US$35.0, respectively, flat month over month versus August for all sizes. Cost-side pressure has become concentrated and explicit, and total TV panel costs are expected to rise 4%-7% quarter over quarter in Q4 2026. The three major panel makers BOE (000725.SZ), TCL CSOT, and HKC have successively issued price increase notices; on the supply side, the three panel makers plan to suspend production and cut output during the National Day holiday. In the domestic market, leading brands are expected to achieve steady growth by leveraging integrated advantages, strong industry pricing power, and deep cash reserves. TCL ELECTRONICS (01070), Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH), Midea Group Co., Ltd (000333.SZ), and HAIER SMARTHOME (600690.SH) are recommended. Sinolink's main views are as follows: TV panel makers issue price increase letters; National Day holiday maintenance adjusts supply and demand TV panel makers issue price increase letters; National Day holiday maintenance adjusts supply and demand. TrendForce data shows that TV panel prices stabilized across the board in September 2026, with average prices for 65-inch, 55-inch, 43-inch, and 32-inch panels at US$173, US$123, US$63, and US$35.0, respectively, flat month over month versus August for all sizes, while monitor and notebook panel prices were also flat. Cost-side pressure has become concentrated and explicit, as AI demand crowds out upstream material capacity in the panel industry, and total TV panel costs are expected to rise 4%-7% quarter over quarter in Q4 2026; in mid-September, the three major panel makers BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC successively issued panel price increase notices. On the supply side, the three panel makers plan to suspend production and cut output at TV panel plants during the National Day holiday, with back-end assembly lines shut down for 3-7 days. TrendForce expects utilization rates of Generation 5 and above large-generation lines to fall 4.2 percentage points quarter over quarter to 79.6% in October. The three major mainland panel makers together already account for about 70% of TV panel supply. IT panel demand is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, customers already pulled forward most procurement, and order momentum weakened markedly in the second half. Notebook panel procurement momentum from major brand customers is expected to decline more than 20% quarter over quarter in Q3, and a double-digit quarter-over-quarter decline cannot be ruled out in Q4; monitor panels may follow with price increases if the TV price uptrend is established. Looking ahead, rising costs and proactive supply-side contraction support TV panel prices, while a 4% quarter-over-quarter decline in Q4 demand and the seasonal weakening of IT panels remain constraints. Attention should be paid to the transmission of rising panel costs to the gross margins of complete color TV sets. Key industry data tracking 1) Market and sector performance: This week, the CSI 300 Index was -1.51%, and the SW Home Appliance Index was -0.52%. Among individual stocks, the top three gainers this week were Xiamen Comfort Science&Technology Group (+46.65%), Zhejiang Hongchang Electrical Technology (+28.60%), and Jiangsu Liba Enterprise Joint-Stock (+13.05%); the top three decliners this week were Ningbo Deye Technology Corporation (-9.64%), Hisense Home Appliances Group (-4.67%), and ZheJiang YanKon Group (-4.56%). 2) Raw material prices: Since this week (9/21-9/25), the copper price index was -0.32%, the aluminum price index was -0.26%, the cold-rolled coil index was -0.25%, and the China Plastic City ABS index was -1.54%. Month to date, the copper price index was +2.39%, the aluminum price index was -0.21%, the cold-rolled coil index was -1.50%, and the China Plastic City ABS index was +2.56%. Since the start of 2026, the copper price index was +17.25%, the aluminum price index was +8.98%, cold-rolled coil was -0.25%, and the China Plastic City ABS index was +18.20%. 3) Exchange rates and shipping: As of September 24, 2026, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the renminbi was 6.75, up 0.00% for the week and down 3.90% year to date; this week, the China Containerized Freight Index was +1.08% quarter over quarter. 4) Real estate data: In August 2026, the national cumulative floor area growth rates year over year for residential new starts, construction, completions, and commercial housing sales were -25.5%, -13.2%, -25.6%, and -13.7%, respectively. Real estate investment and sales remain in an adjustment range, exerting some pressure on medium- to long-term home appliance demand. Subsector prosperity indicators Sector prosperity assessment: white goods - continued pressure, black goods - continued pressure, kitchen and bathroom appliances - stabilizing at the bottom, robot vacuum cleaners - continued pressure. Investment recommendation In the domestic market, leading brands are expected to achieve steady growth by leveraging integrated advantages, strong industry pricing power, and deep cash reserves. In export markets, as the United States enters a rate-cutting cycle, the boost to home appliances from real estate is expected to strengthen, European consumption is expected to maintain a slow recovery, and demand in emerging markets has strong continuity under the logic of rising penetration and the demographic dividend. Chinese companies are gradually improving the localization of their R&D, production, and sales systems, and there is broad room for OBM expansion overseas. TCL ELECTRONICS, Hisense Visual Technology, Midea Group Co., Ltd, and HAIER SMARTHOME are recommended. Risk warning Domestic and external demand recovery falling short of expectations, fluctuations in external factors such as raw material prices and exchange rates, changes in shipping and tariff conditions, and intensifying industry competition may all adversely affect sector performance.