UBS Group AG: Maintains "Neutral" rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), target price $385. AI narrative dominates the stock's pricing logic.

GMTEight APP has learned that UBS Group AG issued a research report maintaining a "Neutral" rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) with a 12-month target price of $385. The bank noted that Tesla, Inc.'s overall vehicle deliveries in the third quarter of 2026 came under pressure, but the AI business narrative has replaced traditional delivery data as the core driver of the stock price, and progress in businesses such as Robotaxi and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation will be the core catalysts for market attention in the next stage. UBS Group AG forecasts that Tesla, Inc.'s global deliveries in the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26) will be approximately 470,000 units, down 5% year-over-year and down 1% quarter-over-quarter. This forecast is 4% above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate (454,000 units), and UBS Group AG expects the consensus estimate to be released in about a week. Although the buy side is currently not overly focused on vehicle deliveries, expectations have recently been revised upward, with the anticipated range at 460,000 to 480,000 units. On the energy storage business, UBS Group AG forecasts third-quarter energy storage deployments of 16.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh), up 35% year-over-year and up 25% quarter-over-quarter; however, the bank also cautioned that the energy storage business itself is intermittent in nature and channel data verification is difficult. As planned, Tesla, Inc. will officially announce 3Q26 delivery data on October 2. By region, delivery performance across markets diverged significantly. In the U.S. market, the local pure electric vehicle market weakened overall, but Tesla, Inc.'s market share increased, and Model S/X production discontinuation is no longer included in delivery statistics. According to Autodata estimates, Tesla, Inc. delivered 83,300 vehicles in the U.S. from July to August, down 29% from the pace in the first two months of the third quarter of 2025, but up 7% from the first two months of the second quarter of 2026. Cybercab registration data at the beginning of the quarter will be included in the report statistics, although its base is still small. To stimulate demand, the U.S. market currently offers multiple financial incentive policies: Model Y 72-month loan annual percentage rate as low as 1.49% (covering rear-wheel drive, all-wheel drive, and Premium versions), with the Performance version at 3.99%; all newly delivered Tesla, Inc. vehicles come with a 30-day FSD (Supervised) trial; the new Model 3 lease plan is $419 per month with a $3,000 down payment. In the European market, deliveries in the first two months of the quarter across eight major markets fell 5% year-over-year, with significant divergence within the region: Norway (-83%), Spain (-80%), Italy (-57%), and the UK (-36%) weakened sharply; France (+183%), Germany (+33%), Belgium (+28%), and the Netherlands (+13%) achieved strong growth. UBS Group AG noted that European quarterly deliveries are typically concentrated in the third month, which introduces some uncertainty into delivery forecasts. In the Chinese market, factory wholesale volume (including exports) from July to August increased 19% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter. Domestic retail sales in China (excluding exports) fell 21% year-over-year but rose 6% quarter-over-quarter; export performance was particularly strong, up 92% year-over-year and up 11% quarter-over-quarter, supporting UBS Group AG's optimistic assessment for the U.S., Europe, and regions outside China (RoW). To sprint toward quarter-end deliveries, Tesla, Inc. launched limited-time incentives in China: taking delivery of inventory Model Y by September 30, 2026 qualifies for a RMB 10,000 discount, and Model 3 qualifies for up to RMB 5,000 discount, which may bring upside to delivery forecasts. Demand in other regions (RoW) is similarly strong: South Korea delivered 21,000 vehicles in the first two months, up 35% year-over-year and down 14% quarter-over-quarter; Australia deliveries surged 224% year-over-year and rose 63% quarter-over-quarter. On the stock price driver logic, UBS Group AG explicitly pointed out that delivery data has limited impact on the stock price, and narrative-driven factors are the current core. As investors increasingly shift away from focusing on the traditional automotive business, the impact of vehicle deliveries on the stock price has significantly diminished, although stock price noise may still occur on delivery day. What could truly regain attention in the traditional business is the penetration rate of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and its contribution to profits. Current investor focus is entirely on Tesla, Inc.'s transformation into a physical AI company, with the stock price dominated by future narratives and sentiment around AI businesses such as Robotaxi, Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, Terafab, and CECEP Solar Energy. In addition, investors are also highly focused on the possibility of a potential merger between Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX, a direction Musk again hinted at this month. Near-term stock price catalysts include: the upcoming quarterly earnings report (with market focus on margin and free cash flow performance); the continued expansion of Robotaxi and further progress on Cybercab; the unveiling of the new Roadster on October 1 (which UBS Group AG believes will have limited impact on financial data); Tesla Semi, Optimus V3 updates, and further details on Terafab. Looking at historical stock price performance on delivery days, data shows that on days when deliveries beat expectations, the stock price rose an average of 0.4%, while on days when deliveries missed expectations, it fell an average of 3.2%; in the five trading days before delivery day, the average gain was 5.6% when beating expectations and the average decline was 2.5% when missing expectations. However, UBS Group AG emphasized that Tesla, Inc.'s stock price reaction to delivery data has become more volatile in recent years, and current market pricing reflects more of the AI and Siasun Robot&Automation narrative rather than short-term delivery cadence. On rating and valuation, UBS Group AG maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla, Inc., which is an exception to its core rating framework because the stock's volatility is above average, the rating band is set at 15% rather than the standard 6%. Based on the closing price of $379.78 on September 23, 2026, the 12-month target price of $385 implies upside of approximately 1.4%, below the market return assumption set by UBS Group AG (9.7%), with expected excess return of -8.4%. This valuation methodology is based on the 2027 forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. On risks, UBS Group AG lists core downside risks including: a slowdown in the global economy and discretionary consumer spending hitting automotive production; EV penetration falling short of expectations; cost reductions falling short of expectations; material supply and supply chain risks; capacity expansion execution risks; regulatory risks; and key-person risk. Upside risks include: stronger-than-expected demand for EVs and Tesla, Inc. products; better-than-expected performance in energy products; and faster-than-expected monetization of Robotaxi and other AI businesses.