How to view the market after the "double festival"? A rebound still awaits validation from four major variables.

Title context: How to view the market after the "double festival"? A rebound still awaits validation from four major variables. Text: As the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day "double festival" approaches, multiple institutions have offered assessments of the subsequent market. Based on brokerage research reports, the market generally believes that some pessimistic expectations have already been priced in, and A-shares are welcoming a phased repair opportunity, but a full trend-based upturn still requires the resonance of multiple conditions. Structural opportunities are concentrated in the high-growth AI industry chain, and subsequent market performance depends on event catalysts and earnings realization. Different interpretations are mainly concentrated in two aspects: First, there is divergence regarding the scale of this round of rebound. Most institutions take a middle position, acknowledging a structural rebound but not supporting a trend reversal. Some institutions judge that the market has entered an offensive window, while others believe it is only a small-scale repair, with the year overall dominated by consolidation and rest; Second, regarding the allocation value of dividend assets, some institutions use them as a defensive base position in a consolidating environment, while others believe that the odds for the current dividend sector have already declined and that it is not suitable as a key allocation direction; Regarding this year's "double festival" trend, "four questions" have attracted market attention. Question one: How should the major trend be viewed? Structural rebound is the mainstream view Most brokerages acknowledge that negative factors have been partially priced in, and the market is mainly undergoing consolidation and repair in the short term, but there are different views on whether the rebound is a small-scale repair or an offensive window for the year. Huatai Research stated that after the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed, although the technology sector has welcomed a repair window, weak domestic credit and economic data combined with cautious sentiment before the National Day holiday will constrain the market's upward elasticity. The current rebound is not a trend-based market move, and medium-term market opportunities are more reflected at the structural level, with the breadth of repair narrowing. Shenwan Hongyuan Group likewise judged that the current period is only a small-scale rebound, and that for the remainder of 2026 the market will overall be in a stage of consolidation and rest. For the technology sector to embark on a major upward wave, a heavyweight AI industry catalyst is still needed to forge new consensus across the entire market. CITIC SEC's research report took a relatively more positive view, believing that after sufficient prior risk pricing, combined with third-quarter earnings catalysts, the market has entered its final offensive window of the year; reviewing the historical patterns of industrial super-cycles, small-cap stocks not heavily held by institutions in the later stage of a market move often tend to release stronger upward elasticity. Question two: How will the market play out before and after the double festival? Pre-holiday risk aversion suppresses trading, while post-holiday repair probability may be higher Focusing on the current "double festival" juncture, multiple brokerages reviewed historical market performance and found that, affected by cross-long-holiday risk premiums and quarter-end institutional assessment position adjustments, pre-holiday markets are prone to capital risk-aversion behavior. Weakness before the holiday and repair after the holiday is a relatively prominent calendar effect. Huatai traced A-share market data over the past two decades and found that the median market return in the 10 trading days before the National Day holiday was negative, while the repair win rate in the 5 trading days after the holiday rose significantly; it also corrected the market's conventional wisdom, noting that the dividend style does not possess the pre-holiday defensive attribute traditionally assumed. Sinolink analyzed that a long holiday means a vacuum period during which trading cannot occur but uncertainty is abundant. Overseas markets continue to operate as usual, and geopolitics, oil prices, and exchange rates may all ferment during these days, with the first trading day after the holiday having to digest everything at once. For institutions, this is compounded by third-quarter-end assessments - locking in floating profits and reducing volatility are themselves rational choices. After the holiday, capital returns, and as third-quarter earnings expectations begin to ferment, money that had previously been held back starts looking for direction again - this is the source of the broad post-holiday rally. Caitong further broke down the calendar effect, observing that historically the week before the holiday is prone to shrinking volume and adjustment, often bottoming one or two trading days before the holiday, with a volume-driven start only expected after the holiday. On whether to hold stocks or cash through the holiday, Caitong, combining the National Day calendar effect, believed that current downside risk is limited and that holding stocks through the National Day holiday may be more worthwhile. Question three: How should industries be allocated? AI computing power hardware is the core main line, with intra-sector divergence increasing Institutional allocation main lines are highly concentrated in the AI industry chain. Each brokerage gave subdivided direction choices based on its own logic, generally pairing them with policy chains, alpha tracks, and other combinations as hedges, while views on the dividend sector differed. CITIC SEC believed that Hang Seng Tech valuations remain in low-level consolidation, and the sector's pricing focus is shifting toward liquidity expectations, earnings resilience, and cash flow. Second-half performance will revolve around AI implementation progress and the certainty of core business earnings. On one hand, attention should be paid to catalysts from model iteration and agent commercialization by leading internet companies; on the other hand, preference should be given to targets with solid performance, cash flow, and shareholder return performance. Galaxy Securities adopted a "technology + policy + dividend" allocation framework. In the technology direction, it positioned advanced semiconductor packaging, optical communications, and AI computing power; on the policy side, it positioned power grids, energy storage, building materials, and construction machinery around the "six networks"; and it used dividend assets such as financials, utilities, and coal as a base position to hedge overseas risks. GF SEC focused on earnings realization and valuation matching, pointing out that this round of AI market performance is earnings-driven, and that valuations have been sufficiently digested after the pullback. It gives priority to high-growth third-quarter earnings targets; dividend assets still have defensive attributes, but their odds have declined and they are not suitable as a key allocation direction. Question four: What key points should be watched going forward? Four major key variables determine the sustainability of this rebound Based on interpretations of brokerage research reports, various parties regard four key variables - China-U.S. economic and trade consultations, the implementation of domestic fiscal real work volume, the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy statements, and verification of the AI industry and third-quarter earnings - as the core observation dimensions affecting market pricing going forward. Galaxy Securities placed China-U.S. economic and trade consultations in the primary position for short-term risk appetite. Signals released from the consultations will directly change the risk premium on RMB assets and transmit outward to expectations for the export chain and technology sector. GF SEC focused more on the real constraints of domestic fundamentals. The current economy shows a recovery pattern of relatively strong production and relatively weak consumption and investment. In the fourth quarter, the issuance pace of government bonds and local bonds is back-loaded, and whether fiscal funds can be effectively transformed into real work volume is the key to determining the strength of domestic fundamental support. At the overseas level, the Federal Reserve's September rate hike has already landed, but risks have not been completely cleared. Soochow pointed out that the U.S. "inflation-Treasuries-rates" dilemma is a medium- to long-term slow variable and will not be completely resolved by a single rate hike. Subsequent statements by Federal Reserve officials, European and U.S. PMI data, and oil price disruptions brought by Middle East geopolitics still need to be continuously tracked. On the industry side, both GF SEC and Soochow emphasized that September to November is a dense window period for AI industry catalysts, including AICC, the Yunqi Conference, overseas developer conferences, a potential Anthropic IPO, and, on top of that, overseas cloud vendors' capital expenditure guidance and third-quarter earnings reports. The real verification of orders and capital expenditure in the AI industry chain is the decisive factor determining how far the growth sector's market performance can go. This article is reprinted from "Cailian Press"; GMTEight editor: Chen Siyu.