Jefferies: Chinese high-end new energy vehicle brands outperform peers; maintains "Hold" rating on NIO-SW (09866)

Jefferies released a research report stating that mainland China's August passenger vehicle retail sales fell 24.3% year-on-year to 1.52 million units, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. During the period, exports reached 890,000 units, up 67% year-on-year and down 3.5% month-on-month. New energy vehicle penetration surpassed half in the first eight months of this year, reaching 54%, compared with 42% in 2025. The overseas market mix is rapidly upgrading, with mainland brands' share in the European passenger vehicle market reaching a record 9.5%, and their share in the new energy vehicle market reaching 20.1%. The bank believes that the high overseas new energy vehicle penetration reflects a decline in internal combustion engine vehicle penetration rather than new energy vehicle strength. The report mentioned that in August, NIO-SW (09866)'s average selling price rose 53% year-on-year to RMB 432,000, while Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock (09927)'s Aito was RMB 402,000, both higher than Mercedes-Benz's RMB 348,000. GEELY AUTO (00175)'s Zeekr and LI AUTO-W (02015) also had average selling prices higher than BMW and Audi. The bank maintains its "Hold" rating on NIO. The bank believes that four Chinese high-end new energy vehicle brands have all surpassed their closest German luxury car peers, while the latter's discounts have generally widened by 10% to 11% year-on-year. Amid a deepening downturn in the mainland market, average selling prices have remained stable for two consecutive months, indicating that mainland brands' leading position is structural rather than a coincidence of product mix.