Hua Chuang Securities: AIDC opens up incremental space for gas power generation equipment, with small and medium gas turbines and gas engines experiencing a synchronized boom.

Hua Chuang Securities released a research report stating that the global demand center for gas power generation equipment is shifting upward, with traditional electricity demand providing the baseline and AIDC constituting an important new variable in this cycle. Under a neutral scenario, global gas turbine demand is expected to increase from 81.4GW in 2026 to 99.0GW in 2030. This round of gas power generation equipment prosperity is jointly driven by traditional electricity demand and new AIDC load. Gas engines benefit from market expansion and the extension of backup power supply to primary power scenarios, showing stronger demand growth elasticity; small and medium gas turbines face more prominent supply constraints, and their power range aligns well with the modular power supply needs of AIDC. The main views of Hua Chuang Securities are as follows: The global demand center for gas power generation equipment is shifting upward, with traditional electricity demand providing the baseline and AIDC constituting an important new variable in this cycle. Global gas turbine orders for power generation reached approximately 96GW in 2025, a significant increase from 57.4GW in 2024. Under a neutral scenario, global gas turbine demand is expected to increase from 81.4GW in 2026 to 99.0GW in 2030. Among this, U.S. electricity demand is re-accelerating, with AIDC becoming an important marginal source of commercial electricity growth. Under a conservative scenario, U.S. data center IT equipment capacity is estimated to add approximately 114GW cumulatively from 2025 to 2030, corresponding to cumulative additional supporting power capacity demand of approximately 195GW; under an optimistic scenario, the supporting capacity increment could reach approximately 300GW. Gas engines, meanwhile, benefit from new applications including AIDC, peak shaving, and balancing power sources. Under a neutral scenario, demand increases from 15.0GW to 28.2GW, with a CAGR of approximately 17.1%. Core OEMs have entered a new round of capacity expansion, with significant differences in the pace of supply release across different technology routes. Under a neutral scenario, global gas turbine supply is expected to increase from 66GW in 2026 to 98.5GW in 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 10.5%. The supply mainly comes from capacity expansion by leading manufacturers such as GEVernova, Siemens Energy, and MitsubishiPower. Heavy-duty gas turbine manufacturing chains are longer, and capacity release is relatively rigid; small and medium gas turbines have greater manufacturing and expansion flexibility, with supply growth faster than heavy-duty gas turbines; the gas engine supply chain is more dispersed, and under a neutral scenario, global supply is expected to increase from 15.0GW to 27.4GW. Short-term gas turbine supply-demand gap remains prominent, with stronger constraints on small and medium gas turbines structurally, while gas engines maintain dynamic balance. Under a neutral scenario, the global nominal gas turbine supply-demand gap gradually narrows from 15.4GW in 2026 to 0.5GW in 2030, with the short-term contradiction mainly concentrated in 20262027. As leading OEMs release new capacity, supply-demand pressure on heavy-duty gas turbines gradually eases; for small and medium gas turbines, despite faster expansion, due to the larger initial gap, a nominal gap of approximately 4.7GW is expected to remain in 2030; gas engines, meanwhile, show synchronized demand surge and supply expansion, with the industry maintaining overall dynamic balance. Industry prosperity has already transmitted from orders to revenue and profitability, with product adaptation and capacity fulfillment becoming key to growth. GEVernova's gas turbine equipment Backlog and Slot Reservation further increased from 100GW in 2026Q1 to 116GW in Q2, and the company plans to gradually increase annualized gas turbine output from 20GW in 2026 to 30GW in 2030; Siemens Energy Gas Services' high-quality Backlog continues to accumulate, and BakerHughes' 2026Q2 IETRPO reached $37.1 billion, with GTE/GTS reaching $15.0 billion/$16.7 billion respectively. Caterpillar's large reciprocating engines and Solar gas turbine sales are also being driven by data center demand, and Cummins' natural gas generator sets have further expanded from traditional backup scenarios into AIDC behind-the-meter primary power supply. Risk warnings: AIDC construction and electricity demand growth falling short of expectations, OEM capacity expansion exceeding expectations leading to a looser supply-demand landscape, AIDC behind-the-meter gas power generation penetration falling short of expectations, changes in natural gas prices and energy policies.