Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Super Nodes Add New Scale-up Opportunities

Yesterday, the market underwent intraday volatility and adjustment, with the ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index opening higher and closing lower. Trading volume shrank noticeably, with combined turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 1.76 trillion yuan. On the board, concepts such as PCB, CRO, and quantum technology showed active performance. On the downside, the media and film sectors experienced volatility and adjustment. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.6%. CITIC SEC believes that super nodes add new Scale-up opportunities; China Securities Co.,Ltd. believes that the current global macro situation has "five uncertainties and five certainties"; CICC believes that Warsh's policy reaction function has a low correlation with the economic cycle. CITIC SEC: Super nodes add new Scale-up opportunities As large models evolve toward trillion-parameter MoE (Mixture of Experts) architectures, single-machine 8-GPU configurations face simultaneous constraints in memory, communication, and power consumption. Super nodes expand the minimum deployment unit of AI computing power to a rack-level Scale-up domain of 64 GPUs or more. Compared with traditional clusters, super nodes add a Scale-up network in addition to the Scale-out network. Among the increments brought by the expansion of domain scale, the switching segment benefits relatively directly, and the usage and value of switch chips and switches are expected to rise accordingly. The domestic switch market is mainly occupied by local manufacturers, while switch chips are still mainly supplied by overseas manufacturers. Intra-domain switching is delivered along with the integrated rack design, forming a supporting set across the three segments of server complete machines, switch chips, and switches. China Securities Co.,Ltd.: The current global macro situation has "five uncertainties and five certainties" It is mainly affected by the AI technological revolution, international monetary transformation, and geopolitical conflicts, with the core being a concentrated global-level mapping of changes in productivity and adjustments in production relations. The "five uncertainties" are: first, the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is uncertain; second, whether the high debt of developed economies can be sustained is uncertain; third, the yen exchange rate and the global arbitrage mechanism are uncertain; fourth, the geopolitical shock to crude oil and supply security are uncertain; fifth, the long-term global macro impact in the AI era is uncertain. The "five certainties" are: first, the rigidity of inflation in developed economies is certain; second, the upward trend in yields driven by debt pressure and inflation in developed economies is certain; third, China's high growth in imports and exports and manufacturing upgrading are certain; fourth, China's maintenance of policy resolve, high-quality development, and technological progress are certain; fifth, RMB appreciation, revaluation of RMB assets, and investing in China are certain. CICC: Warsh's policy reaction function has a low correlation with the economic cycle Warsh's policies have a relatively high correlation with the political cycle. Democratic presidential terms generally lean hawkish, but Republican presidential terms generally lean dovish. As the Federal Reserve Chairman nominated by Republican President Trump, Warsh is likely to adjust his policy stance again in the future. It is not appropriate to linearly extrapolate the currently hawkish policy reaction function, and future Federal Reserve policy may still turn dovish. In fact, the five special working groups previously proposed by Warsh have already reserved space for adjusting the policy reaction function in the future. For example, the reassessment of economic data and the inflation framework may change the Federal Reserve's interpretation of inflation risks and one-time price shocks; research on AI and productivity may in turn affect the Fed's judgment on the potential growth CKH HOLDINGS inflation center. This article is reprinted from "Cailian Press", GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.