HK Stock Concept Tracker | Supply and demand for semiconductor 12-inch silicon wafers are tightening, and the trend of long-term contract price increases for 2027 is gradually being established (with concept stocks)

Title context: HK Stock Concept Tracker | Supply and demand for semiconductor 12-inch silicon wafers are tightening, and the trend of long-term contract price increases for 2027 is gradually being established (with concept stocks) Text: The expansion of AI chip production is driving an explosive surge in demand for upstream raw materials. After memory chips sparked widespread market discussion, the most basic raw material in semiconductors 12-inch silicon wafers is ushering in a new round of price increases. Industry research information shows that the prices of newly signed long-term silicon wafer contracts in 2027 will be comprehensively raised, with the increase for polished silicon wafers potentially exceeding 40%, and the increase for some second-tier customer orders even exceeding 50%. The price increase trend is expected to continue into 2028. As the base material for chip manufacturing, silicon wafers are called the "cornerstone" of the semiconductor industry. The first step in chip manufacturing is to fabricate various integrated circuits on silicon wafers through a series of complex processes such as lithography and etching. Divided by size, 12-inch large silicon wafers are mainly supplied for advanced processes, used in AI logic chips, mobile phone and PC processors; while 6-inch and 8-inch silicon wafers are more oriented toward tracks such as power semiconductors, automotive electronics, and industrial chips. As global AI chip manufacturers expand production on a large scale, the consumption rate of 12-inch silicon wafers is climbing rapidly, and the supply-demand gap is gradually emerging. This round of long-term contract price increases is precisely the direct result of the tightening supply-demand pattern. In the semiconductor industry, wafer fabs mostly rely on long-term contracts to lock in supply volumes and procurement prices when purchasing silicon wafers, which is what the industry calls "long-term contracts"; spot purchases are small quantities of goods that manufacturers temporarily buy on demand, with greater price fluctuations. In the current market, the spot price of 12-inch silicon wafers has already continued to rise. Analysts predict that in the fourth quarter of 2026, the spot price is expected to exceed the previously signed old long-term contract prices. The strength of spot prices will become important support for a new round of long-term contract renegotiation in 2027. It is worth mentioning that, according to reports, the signal of silicon wafer price increases was already released as early as the end of August. At that time, market news showed that after a three-year gap, the global silicon wafer market was welcoming large-scale price increases across all sizes of products, with quotations for 6-inch, 8-inch, and 12-inch silicon wafers raised simultaneously, with the lowest increase reaching 10%. Entering September, price increase actions continued to land. Silicon wafer manufacturer GlobalWafers completed a price adjustment for 6-inch silicon wafers, and has already negotiated quotation adjustments for 8-inch silicon wafers with some customers, with the new prices to be officially implemented starting next year. For example, on September 11, National Silicon Industry Group stated on its investor relations platform that in the first half of the year, the domestic silicon wafer market gradually stabilized and entered an upward channel. Some products that had previously seen relatively large price declines have begun price recovery, and categories with strong demand have gained room for price increases. GRINM Semiconductor Materials management stated at its recently held 2026 semi-annual results briefing that the company's 6-inch and 8-inch silicon wafers have successively completed price adjustments. GlobalWafers Chairman Hsu Hsiu-Lan recently revealed that the silicon wafer market has indeed entered a price increase phase, and the upward trend is not limited to the short-term spot market. Long-term contract prices are also rising simultaneously, reflecting that customers' attitudes toward subsequent demand and supply visibility are changing. At present, the proportion of long-term contracts in overall capacity is still low, mainly because a new wave of long-term contracts has only just begun to be signed. In the future, the proportion of long-term contracts will continue to climb, and GlobalWafers will also plan capacity in tandem based on long-term contract demand. Some analyses say that from the perspective of profit distribution in the industrial chain, the most direct beneficiaries of silicon wafer price increases are global silicon wafer manufacturers. Overseas leaders such as GlobalWafers, Shin-Etsu Chemical, and SUMCO have abundant customer resources and stronger bargaining power in long-term contract negotiations, and are expected to fully enjoy the performance elasticity brought by rising volumes and prices. Domestically, domestic silicon wafer manufacturers such as National Silicon Industry Group, Hangzhou Lion Microelectronics, Wafer Works, and GRINM Semiconductor Materials will usher in a window period of upward industry prosperity. Under the broader environment of global silicon wafer price increases, the space for gross margin recovery of domestic silicon wafer enterprises has opened up, and the domestic substitution process is also expected to accelerate. Guosen believes that with the acceleration of capacity expansion by domestic and overseas wafer fabs, the continuous increase in overseas wafer fabs' procurement of domestic silicon wafers, and the strengthening willingness of domestic wafer fabs to procure locally, the demand growth momentum for 12-inch silicon wafers is expected to further strengthen, and the price increase trend is expected to continue. BOC International stated that benefiting from downstream demand growth and continuous technological progress, the global semiconductor materials market size continues to expand, and demand for advanced materials is rising rapidly. In various key semiconductor materials, Chinese enterprises are steadily laying out capacity and technology research and development, and their competitiveness and production and sales scale are expected to continue to improve. Related concept stocks: GCL TECH (03800): As of June 30, 2026, the group's granular silicon capacity was 480,000 metric tons. In the first half of 2026, the average external selling price of granular silicon (excluding tax) was approximately RMB 31.97 per kilogram. In the first half of 2026, the average production cash cost of granular silicon (excluding tax) was RMB 25.23 per kilogram, ranking at the industry's top level. In the first half of 2026, the group's market share in the polysilicon market by output was 23.12%, and by external sales volume it is estimated to have ranked first in the polysilicon market, reaching a historical high. In the first half of 2026, the shipment proportions of the top five granular silicon customers were 34%, 26%, 12%, 6%, and 5%, respectively, indicating a stable customer structure. XINTE ENERGY (01799): XINTE ENERGY (01799) announced its 2026 interim results, with operating revenue of approximately RMB 10.153 billion, an increase of 38.88% year over year. The net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately RMB 212 million, narrowing by 17.32% year over year; basic loss per share was approximately RMB 0.15. The announcement said that the revenue growth was mainly due to the increase in the group's polysilicon sales volume during the reporting period. The polysilicon segment achieved revenue of approximately RMB 3.888 billion, an increase of 297.27%. TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology (002129.SZ): TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology announced that its subsidiary Zhonghuan Leading plans to invest in and construct the "Shenzhen Project for Large Semiconductor Silicon Wafers for Integrated Circuits" with Shenzhen Zhonghuan Leading as the main entity, with total project investment expected to be approximately RMB 11.96 billion. The planned capacity of the project is a total of 700,000 pieces/month of 12-inch polished wafers, epitaxial wafers, and test wafers, with a construction period of 60 months. Funding sources include own funds, equity financing, and syndicated loans, among others. This investment will help the company get closer to downstream markets, continuously improve its full-product capabilities, and further increase the capacity scale of 12-inch products as well as the proportion of semiconductor silicon wafer products for logic and storage applications.