Soybeans, Boeing and Rare Earths Test Fragile U.S.-China Trade Truce

The current truce includes Chinese commitments to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans and acquire 200 Boeing aircraft, alongside a temporary suspension of restrictions affecting rare earth magnet exports. Analysts describe the relationship as a period of détente rather than a broader reconciliation. Both countries continue to recognize their dependence on the other in critical areas while protecting their own strategic advantages.

Soybeans provide the clearest measurable evidence of progress. China has purchased almost half of its annual commitment of 25 million tons, including roughly one million tons bought from U.S. producers during a single week in September. Purchases have also tended to accelerate around major meetings between Trump and Xi, giving agricultural trade an additional role as a visible signal of cooperation.

Still, soybean purchases provide only a partial picture of the relationship. China needs large volumes of the crop and remains the world’s biggest soybean importer, meaning commercial considerations also influence purchasing decisions. Meanwhile, the U.S. share of Chinese soybean imports has declined substantially, falling from around 40% before the 2018 trade war to 23% during the first five months of 2026.

Progress on Boeing aircraft has been more difficult to assess. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said around 140 aircraft were in a “good state,” with orders for another 10 being prepared, but customers, aircraft models and delivery schedules have not been disclosed. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has also cautioned against expecting a single 200-plane announcement, as individual Chinese airlines are expected to place orders separately.

Rare earths remain the most strategically sensitive part of the truce. Chinese magnet shipments to the U.S. resumed after earlier restrictions, but exports fell to 512 metric tons in August, down 20% from July and 13% from a year earlier. Some U.S. companies have also faced lengthy waits for export licenses, while certain Chinese suppliers have reportedly declined American orders because of geopolitical and compliance concerns.

The importance of rare earths extends far beyond their trade value because they are critical inputs for clean energy, advanced technology and defense industries. China’s dominance gives Beijing significant leverage, while Washington retains its own influence through advanced semiconductor technologies. However, fully restricting rare earth exports could accelerate efforts by the U.S. and its allies to develop alternative supply chains while also hurting Chinese producers dependent on overseas customers.

Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, the three commitments therefore offer different signals about the health of the trade truce. Soybeans show that commercial cooperation can move relatively quickly, aircraft purchases require more complex negotiations, and rare earths remain closely tied to national security and strategic competition. The durability of the broader relationship may ultimately depend less on headline purchases and more on whether Washington and Beijing can manage these areas of mutual economic vulnerability without triggering another round of escalation.