CITIC SEC Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday travel outlook: Combining leave with holidays drives long-haul travel, average daily growth may be relatively moderate.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are set separately, totaling 10 days, and "taking 3 days off to get 13 days off" will create the longest travel window of the year. Air ticket and hotel booking data on some platforms recorded relatively high growth, but this was partly due to the increase in holiday days and earlier bookings. Combined with the year-on-year trends in traveler numbers and per-capita spending during earlier holidays this year, the bank judges that total domestic travel during the two holidays is expected to hit a new high, but average daily performance may be relatively moderate, with the structure tilting toward long-haul destinations; outbound performance is expected to be better than domestic, but will still be affected by travel cost pressure from high oil prices and geopolitical disruptions. The autumn holiday after the festival is expected to contribute incremental demand, but the performance of off-season demand in the fourth quarter still needs to be observed. It is recommended to focus on subsector names with resilient operations, clear medium- to long-term logic, and buyback or dividend support. CITIC SEC's main views are as follows: Holiday structure: The two holidays are set separately for a total of 10 days, and "taking 3 days off to get 13 days off" creates the longest travel window of the year, releasing booking enthusiasm. In 2026, the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is 3 days and the National Day holiday is 7 days, with 3 working days between the two holidays. Taking leave on September 28-30 can create a continuous 13-day holiday from September 25 to October 7; while in 2025, National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival were combined into 8 days. Driven by this, some pre-holiday booking data showed significant increases: Ctrip data showed that as of August 25, holiday flight orders increased by about 50% year on year and hotel orders increased by nearly 200% year on year; Qunar data showed that as of August 27, advance hotel bookings in popular cities increased by nearly 40% year on year, the number of travelers among the group taking 3 days off to get 13 days off during September 28-30 increased by 52% year on year, and hotel bookings during those three working days accounted for 15% of the 13-day total; Meituan data showed that as of September 16, holiday flight bookings increased by 44% year on year. Ctrip's "2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Holiday Travel Forecast Report" showed that about one in every ten tourists chose to take the two holidays consecutively, of which nearly half traveled for more than 8 days, and cross-province travel during National Day accounted for 82%. Basis analysis: Total volume is expected to hit a new high, while average daily growth is expected to be moderate. Regarding booking data, the bank believes three points need attention: 1) Growth converges as the holiday approaches. Under Umetrip data, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic/inbound and outbound flight bookings from September 25 to October 7 was about 7%/11% on August 11, rose to about 17%/11% on August 31, and reached 10%/5% respectively by September 14, falling significantly from the end of August. The earlier high growth may include some contribution from a forward shift in the booking window. 2) Capacity and passenger flow forecasts are moderate. Flight Manager estimates that from September 25 to October 7, civil aviation passenger volume will be about 31.02 million, with average daily year-on-year growth of 3.1% (domestic +3.1%, international +2.9%), and passenger flights will be about 219,000, with average daily year-on-year growth of 2.0%. 3) The bank estimates that, on an average daily basis, domestic hotel room nights and GMV during the two holidays may grow by low single digits year on year, and domestic flight volume may also grow by low single digits year on year. Referring to holiday performance during the year (domestic traveler numbers during Qingming/Labor Day/Dragon Boat Festival increased by +6.8%/+3.6%/+4.4% year on year, and total spending increased by +6.6%/+2.9%/+4.0% year on year), as well as 2024, when the two holidays were also set separately, with a total of 872 million traveler trips (107 million during Mid-Autumn Festival and 765 million during National Day), and 2025, when National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival had 8 days and 888 million trips, the bank expects that total domestic traveler trips during the two holidays this year are expected to continue to hit a new high, but average daily growth may be relatively moderate. Demand structure: Long-haul travel and lower-tier destinations are highly popular, outbound performance is steady, and inbound travel continues to grow rapidly. Domestically, the bank judges that a longer holiday will push some short-distance travel demand toward long-haul travel, and long-haul travel toward ultra-long-haul and outbound travel. In addition, the domestic route fuel surcharge (using segments over 800 kilometers as an example) has fallen from a high of 170 yuan in May to 70 yuan from August 5, significantly easing the pressure on air travel compared with the Labor Day holiday: Umetrip data showed that bookings for domestic routes over 2,000 kilometers exceeded 1.74 million, up about 14% year on year, faster than the overall market; Meituan data showed that bookings for long-haul flights with flight distances over 2,000 kilometers increased by 76% year on year; TONGCHENGTRAVEL data showed that booking popularity for domestic long-haul flights over 1,200 kilometers increased by 34% year on year, the share of long-stay orders of more than 5 days increased by about 7 percentage points, and the share of high-quality hotel bookings increased by nearly 10 percentage points. Xinjiang, Tibet, Gansu, Yunnan, and Hainan ranked among the top long-haul destinations. County-level and lower-tier demand continued, with Qunar reporting that hotel booking popularity in popular counties increased by 32% year on year, and Tongcheng reporting that booking popularity for county-level travel products increased by 42% year on year. On the outbound side, the bank judges that in addition to traditional popular East Asian and Southeast Asian destinations, Australia-New Zealand is also clearly benefiting. Affected by the geopolitical situation and high oil prices during the year, platform data for ultra-long-haul destinations such as Europe and the United States has been mixed. On the inbound side, data from the National Immigration Administration showed that from January to August this year, foreign nationals' inbound and outbound trips reached 61.287 million, up 19.5% year on year, and visa-free inbound trips reached 23.72 million, up 26.8% year on year; Ctrip data showed that inbound travel orders during the two holidays maintained double-digit growth, with Russian source customers up 173% year on year, and the UK, Malaysia, and Canada all growing by more than 50%, and it is expected to remain a structural highlight. Post-holiday outlook: The autumn holiday is expected to create incremental demand, while off-season performance still needs observation. During the 2025 autumn holiday, hotel and flight bookings by Zhejiang tourists increased by 68% and 22% year on year respectively; ticket bookings for scenic spots in Sichuan Province increased by 3.4 times year on year, with family tourists accounting for more than 53%. In 2026, the autumn holiday will further expand. Regions that have already officially announced it include multiple cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia. Most regions arrange 2-3 days and combine them with weekends to form a 5-day mini holiday, concentrated in mid-to-late November. The bank expects autumn holiday demand to mainly consist of family and parent-child travel, nearby and short- to medium-haul trips, and multiple small peaks are expected at that time, providing support for the off-season. Overall, however, business travel accounts for a relatively high proportion in the fourth quarter, and a clear recovery is currently hard to claim. Hotels and OTA companies also face pressure from a high base and operational changes, and the subsequent operating outlook may remain cautious. Risk factors: Macro consumption recovery falls short of expectations; average spending per trip in liquor and travel continues to decline; extreme weather such as typhoons and heavy rainfall disrupts holiday travel; oil prices and geopolitical factors affect cross-border tourism demand; the impact of platform rectification on the monetization rate and market share of accommodation business is greater than expected; industry subsidies and marketing competition intensify. Investment strategy Total travel during the two holidays is expected to continue to hit a new high, but average daily growth may be relatively moderate. Follow-up attention: 1) Hotels: Summer operating performance was relatively under pressure due to weather, oil prices, and other factors. Industry operations have improved month on month since late July. According to Hotel Home data, as of the week of September 14, Q3 QTD RevPAR was +0.7% year on year, a relatively moderate performance. 2) OTA: Industry regulation is still ongoing. 3) Scenic spots: Sector valuations have fallen back to a reasonable range.