Soochow: AI computing power and storage upgrades drive increased testing value, domestic substitution enters an accelerated phase.

Soochow released a research report stating that AI computing power and storage upgrades are driving up the testing value of probe cards, and domestic substitution is entering an accelerated phase. Manufacturers with independent MEMS probe manufacturing and full-card design capabilities are expected to benefit simultaneously from demand growth and product upgrades. Under assumptions regarding wafer capacity expansion, testing hours, card allocation value, and replacement rates, the domestic storage + logic market is expected to exceed RMB 20 billion by 2028. Soochow's main points are as follows: Probe cards possess both customization and consumable attributes, with demand jointly driven by new product development, wafer capacity expansion, and existing stock replacement. Probe cards are the core interface connecting test equipment and wafers, requiring customization based on chip contact points and testing requirements. New chip development directly generates demand for new cards. After mass production, growth in wafer testing volume drives additional card allocation, while probe wear and product iteration create replacement demand. MEMS has become mainstream in high-end testing due to advantages in fine pitch, high pin count, and contact consistency, accounting for 69.8% of the global probe card market in 2024, with a 94.5% share in the storage segment. Manufacturers with independent MEMS probe manufacturing and full-card design capabilities are expected to benefit simultaneously from demand growth and product upgrades. Increasing complexity of computing power chips drives up per-card value, while storage capacity expansion and HBM development increase testing demand. The increase in contact points on AI chips, combined with high-current, high-speed, and multi-temperature testing requirements, is driving probe card performance upgrades. The average pin count of MaxOne's 2D/2.5D MEMS probe cards increased from 3,179 in 2021 to 13,297 in 2025H1, while the average price rose from RMB 232,000 to RMB 818,000 over the same period. In the storage sector, DRAM and NAND reduce costs through high parallelism testing, with mature overseas DRAM probe cards already supporting over 3,000 sites per contact. HBM stacking increases defect losses, strengthens KGD screening, and creates potential new applications in post-stacking and KGS verification. The evolution of optical interconnect toward 200G/lane and the development of CPO also raise requirements for high-frequency and optoelectronic co-testing. Domestic demand and domestic share are rising in tandem, with computing power and storage contributing the main incremental growth. The global probe card market remains dominated by overseas manufacturers, while domestic manufacturers are accelerating adoption through independent probe manufacturing, full-card performance improvements, and local services. Under assumptions regarding wafer capacity expansion, testing hours, card allocation value, and replacement rates, the domestic storage + logic market is expected to exceed RMB 20 billion by 2028. Investment recommendations: Top picks: [MaxOne Semiconductor] [Suzhou UIGreen Micro&Nano Technologies]; also suggest paying attention to [Shenzhen SEICHI Technologies] [Doget (unlisted)] [Taosheng Electronics (unlisted)] [Zefeng Semiconductor (unlisted)]. MaxOne Semiconductor, leveraging independent MEMS probe and full-card manufacturing capabilities, benefits from the ramp-up of logic and computing power products, and is expanding into storage and optical communication applications through 2.5D MEMS and high-frequency thin films. Shenzhen SEICHI Technologies has a collaborative layout in storage testing equipment and probe cards, while Suzhou UIGreen Micro&Nano Technologies continues to advance MEMS probe card verification and mass production. Risk warnings: Downstream demand and capacity expansion falling short of expectations, new product R&D and customer verification falling short of expectations, risks of changes in technology routes and testing solutions, etc.