TrendForce: Cost pressure combined with weakening demand is expected to push large-generation panel utilization down to 79.6% in October.

According to the latest panel industry research by TrendForce, soaring AI demand has squeezed the production capacity of upstream materials in the panel industry, which is estimated to increase the total cost of TV panels by 4%7% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, as downstream customers face rising cost pressure and peak-season stockpiling came to an end in the third quarter, demand for TV panels (in units) is expected to decline by 4% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter. Faced with the dual changes of rising costs and weakening demand, the three major panel makers BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC have each decided to cut production during the National Day holiday to respond to the decline in client demand. It is estimated that the utilization rate of Generation 5 and above large-generation lines will decrease by 4.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in October to 79.6%. From the supply side, as some panel makers gradually exit the TV market, the supply landscape has become relatively concentrated among a few major players, with the three major Chinese mainland panel makers together accounting for 70% of supply. On the other hand, affected by the macroeconomic environment, demand from customers for IT panels such as notebooks and monitors was front-loaded into the first half of 2026, and order momentum slowed markedly in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, even if these manufacturers enter the TV panel market, they tend to adopt a cautious and conservative strategy, prioritizing profit maintenance rather than chasing market share. According to TrendForce, BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC, taking into account factors such as their own operating strategies, reducing the risk of inventory accumulation, and maintaining price stability in the TV panel market, are mainly targeting their TV panel fab sites and plan to implement holidays and production cuts during the October long holiday. The currently planned holiday days for the three manufacturers' back-end assembly lines are as follows: HKC's H1 plant will take 7 days off, H2 and H4 plants 5 days, and H5 plant 3 days; TCL CSOT's T1, T6, and T10 plants will all take 7 days off; BOE's Gen 10.5 line is also planned to take 4 to 5 days off. To accommodate the holiday arrangements for the back-end assembly lines, the panel makers' front-end production will also be reduced accordingly to maintain supply-demand balance across the lines, laying a relatively favorable foundation for stabilizing panel prices in the fourth quarter.