Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) on Track for Fifth Straight Weekly Gain: Evercore Raises Price Target to $380, Says iPhone Upgrade Cycle Better Than Expected

Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) shares were little changed in premarket trading on Friday, on track for a fifth straight weekly gain, as the latest Wall Street commentary pointed to potentially stronger-than-expected demand for its newest iPhone lineup. Evercore ISI raised its price target on Apple Inc. to $380 from $365 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating. BofA reiterated its "Buy" rating and $370 price target on Apple Inc. Evercore: Survey Points to Strong Upgrade Cycle, Room for Pricing Upside The upgrade was based in part on an annual survey of nearly 4,000 consumers, which Evercore said pointed to a strong iPhone upgrade cycle. The firm's analysts believe iPhone sales could perform well in this upgrade cycle and cited pricing as another potential source of upside, saying prices for some models in the lineup could rise by more than 20%. The survey also showed that 53% of respondents plan to buy a Pro model (historical average 51%), while the share planning to buy a Pro Max rose to 32% from 29% last year; the drivers of consumer upgrades also shifted from AI features last year to hardware upgrades such as camera, battery and display a difference Evercore believes supports the durability of this cycle, whereas last year's Apple Intelligence-driven interest ultimately failed to materialize. The survey also showed that average selling prices are being pushed higher as Pro models carry a $100 price increase and consumers increasingly opt for higher-storage configurations. Apple Inc.'s Sept. 9 launch event raised Pro model prices by $100 each: the iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the iPhone 18 Pro Max starts at $1,299 (both starting at 256GB, with storage available up to 2TB). Apple Inc. also unveiled its first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, starting at $1,999, with pre-orders opening Oct. 16; the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max opened for pre-order on Sept. 12 and officially go on sale Sept. 18. The other side of the price increase is cost. According to TrendForce estimates, the memory cost of the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro rose nearly 400% year over year, with memory's share of total bill-of-materials cost rising to 34% from about 10%; domestic media previously reported that Apple Inc. has accepted Samsung's memory quote for the first quarter of 2027, up 30% to 40% from the third quarter of this year. This is also the source of sell-side disagreement over gross margin a considerable portion of the price increase is being eaten up by component costs. On product cadence, this fall's launch covers only the Pro models and the foldable Duo, with the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and second-generation iPhone Air all delayed to spring 2027; the Duo will not open for pre-order until Oct. 16, about a month later than the Pro models. BofA: Richer Carrier Promotions Roughly Offset Price Increases BofA also holds a constructive view on this iPhone cycle, citing higher trade-in incentives from U.S. wireless carriers. BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan reported that the maximum trade-in credit for the iPhone 18 Pro Max has risen to $1,200 from $1,100 for the iPhone 17 Pro Max, an increase roughly comparable to Apple Inc.'s $100 price hike on the latest Pro models. Mohan reiterated his "Buy" rating and $370 price target on Apple Inc., saying richer carrier promotions should help support demand despite higher device prices. According to carrier plans, the maximum trade-in or subsidy amounts at T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon have all reached $1,200; Verizon and AT&T typically require trade-in devices of iPhone 14 or newer, while T-Mobile's threshold is iPhone 15 Pro or newer promotions clearly favor users with newer models. Mohan also noted that trade-ins do not eliminate upfront spending: consumers still have to pay activation fees and sales tax on the full retail price, with initial cash outlay of about $291 to $296 for the iPhone 18 Pro and about $400 to $405 for the Pro Max; carrier installment plans are mostly 36 months. Wall Street's Overall Read On the share price front, Apple Inc. was little changed in premarket trading; over the past day, retail sentiment on the stock on Stocktwits was in "bearish" territory. Despite doubts about price increases and new-device demand, Apple Inc.'s shares have remained broadly resilient during the launch period. Of the 44 analysts covering Apple Inc., 25 rate it "Strong Buy" or "Buy," 13 recommend "Hold" and only 6 recommend "Sell." Market data show Apple Inc. closed at $337.00 on Sept. 17, up 1.38% on the day, up about 23.7% year to date, with a total market capitalization of about $4.9 trillion; the average sell-side price target is about $337. Sell-side targets are similarly dispersed: UBS Group AG maintained a "Neutral" rating and $296 price target after the foldable Duo launch, while Melius Research maintained a "Buy" rating and $370 price target, both markedly different from Evercore's $380. Divergent Delivery-Time Readings: Three Firms, Two Conclusions On the question of "how strong demand really is," firms tracking pre-order delivery times have reached different conclusions. In a Sept. 14 report, Evercore ISI said the average delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro Max was about 25 days (19 days a year earlier) and 16 days for the Pro (12 days a year earlier), viewing lengthening delivery times in the U.S., U.K. and German markets as a positive demand signal. BofA's report in the same period pointed in the opposite direction: as of Sept. 14, the global average shipping time for the iPhone 18 Pro was 14 days (18 days a year earlier) and 18 days for the Pro Max (25 days a year earlier), with the firm arguing that this cycle's comparison is "less comparable to prior cycles" because Apple Inc. launched only Pro models this time, moved pre-orders from Friday to Saturday and set higher prices. Jefferies Financial Group Inc., after tracking six markets, said Pro Max delivery times shortened by 5 to 11 days year over year and maintained an "Underperform" rating and $263.66 price target on that basis. JPMorgan's Sept. 17 tracking report showed that, as of Sept. 16, global average delivery times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were 19 days and 26 days, respectively, roughly flat versus 20 days and 26 days a year earlier, but the first-week expansion in delivery times (12 days and 7 days) clearly exceeded the year-earlier period (5 days and 2 days); the firm believes the relatively short first-week delivery times reflect a concentration of inventory in high-end models rather than weak demand.