Goldman Sachs: China's travel industry sees volatile summer data; National Day Golden Week demand may show a long-tail effect.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. released a research report stating that from May to June this year, Chinese airfare prices rose 14% to 17% year-on-year, then fell back to roughly flat to 3% growth in July to August. Domestic air passenger volume also rebounded in July to August, reflecting that aviation demand is elastic to prices. The bank expects that, affected by airfare price fluctuations and poor weather in some regions, travel demand volatility intensified during this year's summer holiday, and believes that National Day Golden Week demand may bring a longer-tail effect similar to recent holidays. The bank is bullish on Macau gaming stocks, GALAXY ENT(00027), SANDS CHINA LTD(01928), and WYNN MACAU(01128), due to generally low market expectations, a possible margin inflection point in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a low base for gaming revenue and daily operating expenses from November to December. At the same time, it is also bullish on TRIP.COM-S(09961). Third-quarter guidance this year shows that after the antitrust investigation ended in July, the impact of the platform's switch to a new tiered hotel commission system was only mild. The current valuation is at a low level, and investors are advised to take the opportunity to accumulate. It gives a "Buy" rating, with a target price of HK$536, and is optimistic that inbound tourism and international business expansion can bring sustained growth momentum. On hotels, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. prefers HWORLD-S(01179) and Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR(ATAT.US), with a "Buy" rating, believing that both have relatively high visibility for network expansion and profitability improvement, with target prices of HK$51 and US$52 respectively. The bank maintains a "Neutral" rating on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation(01880), with a target price of HK$62, focusing on Hainan duty-free store sales performance during the peak season from October this year to March 2027; it rates SAMSONITE(01910) as "Buy", expecting a possible revenue inflection point from the end of this year to early 2027, with a target price of HK$18.4. On aviation stocks, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. gives a "Buy" rating to all three major Chinese airlines. For CHINA EAST AIR(00670), Air China Limited(00753), and CHINA SOUTH AIR(01055), the target prices are HK$4.4, HK$6.4, and HK$4.6 respectively. It expects their performance to continue to be dragged down by sharp oil price increases, and the bank is more bullish on Spring Airlines(601021.SH), which has the lowest sensitivity to oil prices.