Fed rate hike lands, A-shares continue to diverge! JD Wealth strategy meeting explains in detail how to invest so you can "hold steady and invest wisely"

Title context: Fed rate hike lands, A-shares continue to diverge! JD Wealth strategy meeting explains in detail how to invest so you can "hold steady and invest wisely" Text: On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, its first since July 2023, drawing investor attention. Since the start of this year, A-shares' structural market has continued to diverge, with semiconductors, innovative drugs, embodied intelligence and other "new new three" sectors becoming the main lines of market focus. Against the backdrop of accelerating technological iteration, the valuation logic of technology assets is undergoing systematic reconstruction, and the market's attention to industry trend judgment and asset allocation strategies has risen significantly. Recently, JD Wealth held the "Born Toward the New, Winning the Future with Quality - JD Wealth 2026 Autumn Investment Strategy Meeting." Several guests from macro research and asset management shared their views. Participants believed that technology asset valuations are showing a shift from "telling concepts" to "delivering results," that is, from being driven by a single boom to multidimensional consideration of industry trends, earnings realization and valuation matching. Investors need to seek a balance between grasping the main industry lines and doing a good job in asset allocation. Reconstruction of Technology Asset Valuations, Diverging Investment Rhythms Across Three Major Tracks From a macro perspective, Chen Guo, deputy director of the East Money Information Securities Research Institute and chief strategist, pointed out that overseas technology asset valuations and profit cycles are already at highs, and the market has shifted from "bold assumptions" to "careful verification." As the Federal Reserve enters a rate hike cycle, rising real interest rates will dampen economic momentum, and U.S. credit also needs repair. After the midterm elections, its fiscal deficit may shrink. Opportunities and challenges coexist for Chinese equity assets. With domestic risk-free interest rates at low levels and the asset shortage continuing, blue-chip stocks with stable growth capability and reasonable valuations stand out in cost-effectiveness relative to bonds and real estate. "Semiconductors are a typical cyclical growth industry," said Liu Chenming, chief strategy analyst at GF SEC and assistant director of the research institute. He believes that currently, driven by AI demand, the global semiconductor cycle is still in an upward phase, and it is expected that for most of 2027, the global semiconductor sales cycle growth rate will still be able to remain at a relatively high level. In terms of domestic substitution, the localization rate in many upstream and midstream semiconductor segments is still relatively low. For a long time to come, industry upcycle and domestic substitution will advance simultaneously, and focus can be placed on segments with low localization rates and large room for improvement. In this process, adjustments caused by global geopolitical, oil price, interest rate and other macro factors may all be good layout opportunities. Zhao Wei, fund manager of Fullgoal Precision Medicine, believes that China's innovative drugs may have entered the "2.0 era," moving from imitation to the global center. The going-global model has shifted from a single "seller" to a "global R&D partner," with antibody-drug conjugates and bispecific antibodies becoming directions with generational upgrading significance. Chinese pharmaceutical companies have high clinical efficiency, and their talent advantage is difficult to replicate. Upfront payments have already improved income statements, and subsequent milestone payments and sales royalties may gradually be realized. Zhao Wei believes that innovative drugs are expected to move from one company's success to a batch of companies' success, and attention can be paid to innovative drug companies with global competitiveness and R&D efficiency advantages. Regarding the embodied intelligence field, which recorded 93.5 billion yuan in total financing in the first half of the year, Zhang Lu, assistant investment director and fund manager of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department at Yongying Fund, pointed out that embodied intelligence is the second half of AI's journey from the digital world to the physical world, with broad long-term space. This year, the Siasun Robot&Automation sector has performed relatively weakly, mainly because the industry lacks actual application scenarios, overseas leading companies' new products have not yet landed, and capital has been diverted to AI upstream. The current bottleneck is not in hardware, but in the "brain" - Siasun Robot&Automation must be able to understand scenarios and work autonomously, with the world model as the core foundation. In terms of data, real machine, real human and simulated data each have advantages and disadvantages, and how to allocate them depends on the company's route and financial strength. Scenario implementation is expected to scale first from factories, service scenarios have begun trial use, and the industry needs hit applications to drive a positive cycle. Market Divergence Intensifies, Household Asset Allocation Focuses More on Diversification and Stability In the roundtable forum session, several fund managers discussed how high-net-worth households can do a good job in asset allocation amid market divergence, offering "tips" from the perspective of diversified asset allocation. Song Qianqian, fixed income investment director at GF Fund, said that the world is currently in a period of tightening expectation disruption, and stocks, bonds and commodities may rise and fall together. She reminded that under the dollar system, U.S. Treasuries and U.S. equities are priced in the same basket, while Chinese bonds operate relatively independently based more on domestic inflation and monetary policy, with low correlation to the dollar system, and are worth emphasizing in household allocation. On bonds, she suggested retaining a basic allocation position. Short- and medium-duration assets are worth long-term allocation, while long-duration assets show more trading value. For bond products, the longer the holding period, the higher the probability of obtaining coupon returns. In an era of low interest rates, household allocation needs to lower expectations to a certain extent and pursue more certainty of returns. "Currently, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks accounts for 50% of the world, twice their share of GDP; U.S. Treasuries are also at historically expensive levels, and rising long-term Treasury yields may suppress the equity risk premium." Han Dongyan, assistant general manager of Lion Fund and general manager of the Equity Investment Division, believes that Chinese equity asset valuations are relatively advantageous, with A-share total market capitalization accounting for about 10% of the world while their GDP share has reached 16%; economic transformation requires long-term technological innovation and also more balanced high-quality development. On defensive equities, she suggested focusing on directions with low valuations, low volatility, strong cash flow and high dividend yields as long-term underlying assets; at the same time, investors can look in consumption and pro-cyclical sectors for high-quality companies that can cross industry troughs and have long-term competitiveness. She also stressed that defense must not only guard against downside risk, but also against upside risk, and must deeply study major sustainable industry development trends and high-quality companies with long-term growth, dynamically balancing according to the risk-return ratio. Regarding gold assets, which investors have hotly discussed, Xu Zhiyan, assistant general manager of Hua An Fund and senior director of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department, said that gold has been volatile this year, but the long-cycle logic has not changed. On allocation ratio, he suggested gold account for 10% to 15% of household assets, adjusted according to individual circumstances. He used a vivid metaphor to explain asset allocation: core equity assets such as the CSI 300 are "carbohydrates," technology assets are "protein," defensive assets such as dividend strategies are "vegetables," and gold is "cheese" - not everything, but it can improve the portfolio's ability to resist volatility. He also mentioned that the global mineable years for gold are limited, and proven reserves are not abundant. He stressed that risk prevention is the first priority and returns are only the second goal, and the core of asset allocation is diversification. Wu Dexuan, fund manager of the Multi-Asset Investment Management Department at China Merchants Fund, believes that the investment horizon needs to appropriately return from ultra-strong alpha industries to macro. AI-related industries may face slower growth later, but this is not no growth, rather a decline relative to the growth rate of the previous two years. In portfolio construction, certainty-return varieties mainly based on fixed income should serve as the ballast of underlying assets; on the equity side, shift from full offense in the first half to half offense and half defense; AI investment requires careful selection, attention to the balance between valuation and profit growth, and phased opportunities in directions such as consumption recovery and manufacturing going global. At the meeting, JD Wealth said that the company has always adhered to taking profit experience rather than sales scale as its core assessment orientation. In AI applications, JD Wealth uses "Jing Xiaobei" as a starting point to continuously explore new models of AI reconstructing wealth management, allowing AI to undertake more standardized and scaled services and letting financial planners focus on professional decision-making and deep operations. In professional services, it continues to deepen the transformation toward "buy-side advisory," building a professional research team covering macro, equity and other fields, and constructing a tiered service system. In terms of the membership system, JD Wealth introduced that on September 1 the membership system completed a comprehensive renewal. This upgrade is intended to allow wealth management users to enjoy tangible rights and services in their lives as well. On the basis of the original rights, the new system covers six membership levels, integrates all-ecosystem resources of JD Group (09618) such as JD Retail, JD Health and JD Logistics, and adds dozens of rights in health management, quality lifestyle and business travel. Upholding the concept that "wealth management makes life better," JD Wealth will continue to improve its one-stop service system in the future, use technology to lower investment thresholds, and help investors steadily seize opportunities and enjoy a better life.