Preview of US Stock Market | All three major stock index futures rose together, oil prices pulled back, and most tech stocks moved higher in premarket trading.
On Thursday, September 17, before the U.S. stock market opened, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose together.
Premarket Market Moves
1. On Thursday, September 17, in premarket trading, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose together. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.82%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.83%, and Nasdaq futures were up 1.09%.
2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.52%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.53%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.67%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 1.82% at $100.57 per barrel. Brent crude was down 2.48% at $103.21 per barrel.
Market News
After the Fed's unanimous rate hike, Wall Street changed: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. bets on October, Bank of America Corp bets on October + December. Fed Chair Warsh presided on Wednesday over the first rate hike in three years. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos noted that what deserves more market attention is that he did not describe the move as a one-off adjustment, but instead signaled that policy could continue to tighten. Markets reacted quickly. Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen adjusted his forecast after the meeting to a total of three rate hikesincluding Wednesday'sup from a previously expected two. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. now expects the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in October, becoming one of the first major Wall Street banks to forecast consecutive Fed rate hikes. This judgment reversed Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s previous view. Bank of America Corp Global Research is another major institution expecting a more aggressive tightening path from the Fed, forecasting rate hikes in October and December respectively.
Warsh shows his hawkish claws, and the bond market believes it: the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened, and rate-hike bets heated up across the board. The bond market is showing growing confidence that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver on his commitment to curbing inflationwhich has now exceeded policymakers' target for five consecutive years. After the Fed raised borrowing costs on Wednesday for the first time since 2023 and predicted further monetary tightening, traders now expect three more rate hikes by the middle of next year, one more than expected before the decision was announced. Interest rate swaps show the first hike could come as early as next month. This repricing pushed the two-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level since 2024, reflecting the market's view that the Fed is willing to implement meaningful tightening to slow the economy and bring down inflation. The two-year U.S. Treasury yieldthe tenor most sensitive to Fed expectationsclimbed to 4.74% from 4.6% before the Fed statement. Longer-dated Treasuries, which are more sensitive to inflation, laggedsuggesting investors expect officials to act to control price pressures. Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations fell sharply.
Wall Street's biggest bull Yardeni "defects": cuts S&P 500 target to 7,900 points one month after raising it, warning of rising economic downside risks. One of Wall Street's biggest bulls, Ed Yardeni, sharply cut his year-end S&P 500 target just one month after raising it, citing rising economic downside risks over the next three to six months. The president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research Inc. lowered his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, which as of last month was still the highest estimate on Wall Street. The new target is in the middle of the pack among more than 20 strategists surveyed by the market. Yardeni is the second strategist this week to cut his S&P 500 forecast. Yardeni still expects "the economy to achieve recession-free growth through the end of this decade." He added that the previous year-end forecast of 8,400 is now the S&P 500 target for mid-2027. His 2027 earnings-per-share target of $425 remains unchanged.
Supply concerns were exaggerated! Saudi Arabia starts "ship-to-ship" oil transfers, with 4 million barrels of crude flowing out per day. After damage to the East-West pipeline and a suspension of crude loading at Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast, Saudi Arabia is supplying more crude to Asian refineries through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port. The alternative export arrangement eased market concerns about a further contraction in Saudi supply. The additional supply directly changed the market's previous judgment that Saudi exports had plunged. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said news that Saudi Arabia is increasing crude shipments via Oman has somewhat eased supply tightness concerns. UBS Group AG analyst Giovanni Staunovo also believes that restoring more exports from the Persian Gulf side reduced market expectations of a further expansion of supply disruptions. International oil prices extended the previous session's decline on Thursday and moved further away from the roughly four-month highs touched earlier this week.
Individual Stock News
U.S. tech stocks rose broadly in premarket trading. On Thursday in premarket trading, as of press time, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) rose more than 3%, while SK Hynix (SKHY.US), SanDisk (SNDK.US), Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US), Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US), AMD (AMD.US), Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US), and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) rose more than 2%. ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US), SpaceX (SPCX.US), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose nearly 2%, while Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), and others rose more than 1%. In optical communications stocks, Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR (NOK.US) and Credo Technology (CRDO.US) rose more than 4%, Coherent (COHR.US), Corning Inc (GLW.US), and Astera Labs (ALAB.US) rose more than 3%, Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US) rose nearly 3%, and Lumentum (LITE.US) rose more than 2%.
$50 billion target badly missed, Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US) draws another $63 billion "pie in the sky," can it convince Wall Street that the "AI replacement theory" is exaggerated? Salesforce, Inc. gave a long-term sales outlook exceeding analyst expectations, showing investors that the software company can still drive revenue growth in the face of competition from AI tools. Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer Robin Washington said the company expects sales to reach $63 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2030. This outlook includes revenue from Salesforce, Inc.'s acquisition of Informatica completed last November. According to aggregated data, analysts had expected an average of $61.4 billion. But an unavoidable historical fact is that the company's $50 billion revenue target for fiscal 2026 set at its 2022 investor day ultimately fell short (actual: $41.5 billion). Wall Street broadly says whether the $63 billion "pledge" can be delivered depends on whether subscription revenue can return to double-digit growth over the next 12-18 months, and when Agentforce bookings will real GAAP revenue and profit.
Nebius (NBIS.US) raises prices across the board: GPU rentals up as much as 21%. Nebius raised prices for computing services. According to a notice the company sent to customers (forwarded by Reddit and X users), Nebius will raise prices for multiple on-demand computing resources starting October 1, with the latest NVIDIA Corporation GPUs seeing the largest increases. Under the new prices, H100 rises to $4.50 per GPU hour from $3.85, an increase of about 17%; H200 rises to $5.40 from $4.50, an increase of 20%; B200 rises to $8.50 from $7.15, an increase of nearly 19%; NVIDIA Corporation B300 has the largest absolute increase, rising to $9.50 per GPU hour from $7.85, an increase of about 21%. The price increases come as Nebius continues to expand AI infrastructure globally. In July, the company obtained about $775 million in debt financing, backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and cash flow from contracted customers. As of press time, Nebius rose more than 9% in Thursday premarket trading, while neocloud peers IREN (IREN.US) and CoreWeave (CRWV.US) rose nearly 5% and 2%, respectively, in premarket trading.
Adding fuel to Wall Street's bullish narrative! GE Vernova (GEV.US) order backlog may exceed $200 billion in early 2027, CEO says demand is "strong and durable." Power equipment giant GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said the company's order backlog is expected to exceed $200 billion in early 2027, earlier than Wall Street previously expected. Strazik said GE Vernova's order backlog had already reached $176 billion at the end of the second quarter. Based on expected strong orders in the third quarter, the company is expected to reach $200 billion "very early in 2027." For investors recently rattled by the AI trade pullback, these remarks came at just the right time. As of press time, GE Vernova rose more than 3% in Thursday premarket trading.
Selling power and "giving stock": Generac (GNRC.US) wins a $2.4 billion generator order from Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon.com, Inc. obtained warrants to purchase up to $340 million of stock in backup power provider Generac. As part of the agreement, Generac said in a securities filing that it issued warrants to Amazon.com, Inc., allowing the latter to acquire up to 1.69 million shares at $200.93 per share, with the total investment amounting to as much as $8 billion. The filing said Generac will supply backup generator sets for Amazon.com, Inc.'s data centers, with initial deliveries expected in 2027 and 2028, totaling $2.4 billion. As of press time, Generac surged more than 29% in Thursday premarket trading.
Key Economic Data and Event Preview
20:30 Beijing time: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended September 12 (in ten thousands)
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