The $50 billion target fell dismally short, and Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US) is now painting a $63 billion "pie in the sky" can it convince Wall Street that the "AI replacement theory" is exaggerated?

Note that Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US) has provided a long-term sales outlook that exceeds analysts' expectations, signaling to investors that the software company can still drive revenue growth in the face of competition from artificial intelligence tools. The company's chief operating officer and chief financial officer, Robin Washington, said on Wednesday at the company's annual conference that sales are expected to reach $63 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2030. This outlook includes revenue from Salesforce, Inc.'s acquisition of Informatica, completed in November last year. According to aggregated data, analysts had expected an average of $61.4 billion. The stock changed little in after-hours trading after closing at $250.54 in New York. Since hitting a low on June 22, the stock has risen 67%, but it is still down 5.4% year to date. As a leader in customer management software, Salesforce, Inc. is under pressure to prove that it can thrive in the era of evolving AI products. At this week's conference, Salesforce, Inc. heavily promoted its partnership with well-known AI startup Anthropic PBC, which helped ease investor concerns about the company facing direct competition. Citi analyst Tyler Radke wrote in a report that conversations with customers and partners at the conference were "clearly more constructive than a year ago, with greater confidence in Salesforce, Inc.'s AI product strategy and execution." JPMorgan said market concerns that Salesforce, Inc. will be replaced by AI are "exaggerated." Agentforce and Data 360 are monetizing AI capabilities together, their annual recurring revenue (ARR) is already close to $3.9 billion, and it is expected to exceed $5 billion by the end of fiscal 2027 and $10 billion by the end of fiscal 2030; the current valuation of about 11 times enterprise value/free cash flow is below the peer average of about 15 times, leaving room for a re-rating. At present, the market mainstream remains optimistic: of 19 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, 13 give a "buy" and 6 are neutral, with an average target price of $272; the average target price of 56 analysts compiled by Investing.com is $273.37, with none giving a "sell." However, one unavoidable historical fact is that the company's fiscal 2026 revenue target of $50 billion set at its 2022 investor day ultimately fell short (actual: $41.5 billion). Wall Street generally says that whether the $63 billion "pledge" can be delivered depends on whether subscription revenue can return to double-digit growth in the next 12-18 months, and when Agentforce bookings will real revenue and profit under generally accepted accounting principles.