Shanxi: The era of AI consumer electronics is approaching, and demand for thermal materials is becoming prominent.

Shanxi released a research report stating that heat dissipation has become a key issue constraining the development and iteration of consumer electronics, accounting for 55% of electronic device failure causes by temperature. As AI phone and AIPC penetration rates rise, the report estimates that from 2025-2028, the AI phone thermal management market size will increase from USD 1.885 billion to USD 3.513 billion, and the AIPC thermal management market size will increase from USD 2.131 billion to USD 7.070 billion. With the rapid development of downstream application fields and the global transfer of the electronics manufacturing industry to China, the domestic thermal management industry has continued to grow and strengthen. Domestic companies have already gained the strength to compete with international and Taiwan-based manufacturers, and the localization process is expected to continue accelerating. Shanxi's main points are as follows: Heat dissipation has become a key issue constraining the development and iteration of consumer electronics Temperature is the main factor affecting the stability and reliability of electronic and electrical products, accounting for 55% of electronic device failure causes. As consumer electronics products are updated and iterated, product power consumption continues to increase, and heat dissipation has become an urgent problem for consumer electronics to solve. According to different heat transfer methods, cooling methods are divided into passive cooling and active cooling. Among them, passive cooling includes thermal interface materials, graphite films, heat pipes, vapor chambers, and others. Active cooling includes air cooling, liquid cooling, and others. Passive cooling solutions are gradually upgrading, and active cooling penetration continues to increase In the smartphone field, the combination of "thermal interface materials + graphite film + vapor chamber" has replaced the traditional combination of "thermal interface materials + graphite film" and become the mainstream cooling solution for mid-to-high-end smartphones. The latest AI Agent phones restructure the AI system, further upgrading the computing power requirements for phone chips and making cooling solution requirements even stricter. Therefore, it is expected that the penetration rate of high-end thermal materials such as vapor chambers will still maintain a high-speed growth trend. At the same time, passive cooling is constrained by physical laws. When chip power consumption exceeds 5W, passive solutions can no longer keep junction temperature within the safe threshold, and active cooling modes such as air cooling and liquid cooling are needed as supplementary cooling modes. At present, multiple models such as Red Magic 3, Red Magic 11 Pro, OPPO K13 Turbo Pro, and Huawei Mate80 Pro have adopted air cooling and liquid cooling solutions. In the PC field, cooling modes are relatively mature, mostly using a combination of active and passive cooling, combining multiple materials such as thermal interface materials, graphite thermal films, heat pipes, and cooling fans. AI cooling contributes core incremental growth, and the VC market size is rising rapidly Benefiting from the streamlining of on-device models and the upgrading of chip computing power, AI phone and AIPC penetration rates continue to increase, and the market size is growing rapidly. From 2025-2028, we estimate that the AI phone thermal management market size will increase from USD 1.885 billion to USD 3.513 billion, with a CAGR of 23.07%; the AIPC thermal management market size will increase from USD 2.131 billion to USD 7.070 billion, with a CAGR of 49.15%. By product, graphite films, vapor chambers, and others are steadily increasing their penetration rates due to excellent thermal conductivity. In terms of vapor chambers, it is expected that from 2026-2035 the global market size will grow from RMB 1.49 billion to RMB 12.21 billion, with a CAGR of 26.37%. In terms of graphite films, it is expected that from 2025-2035 the global market size will grow from USD 1.4 billion to USD 6 billion, with a CAGR of 15.6%. Compared with developed countries, China's domestic thermal management industry started relatively late. However, with the rapid development of downstream application fields and the global transfer of the electronics manufacturing industry to China, the domestic thermal management industry has continued to grow and strengthen. Domestic companies such as Suzhou Tianmai Thermal Technology and Guangdong Suqun New Material have already gained the strength to compete with international and Taiwan-based manufacturers, and the localization process is expected to continue accelerating. Key companies to watch: 1) Suzhou Tianmai Thermal Technology. 2) Guangdong Suqun New Material. 3) Jones Tech Plc. 4) Shenzhen FRD Science & Technology. 5) Lingyi Itech. 6) J.Pond Precision Technology. Risk warnings: downstream demand fluctuation risk; technology R&D falling short of expectations risk; intensifying market competition risk; raw material price increase risk.