Overnight US stocks | The three major indices fell for the second consecutive day, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007, and WTI crude oil surged 4%.

Tuesday, the three major indices fell for the second consecutive day as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with the market almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007, reaching 5.041%. US StocksAt the close, the Dow fell 328.09 points, or 0.63%, to 52,093.10; the S&P 500 fell 34.25 points, or 0.45%, to 7,585.73; the Nasdaq fell 204.84 points, or 0.78%, to 25,981.57. Qualcomm (QCOM.US) rose 4%, Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) fell 3%, and SK Hynix (SKHY.US) fell 0.4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.1%, and XPeng, Inc. ADR Sponsored Class A (XPEV.US) fell 4.5%. European StocksGermany's DAX30 index rose 0.78 points, or 0.00%, to 25,415.84; the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 44.01 points, or 0.41%, to 10,653.56; France's CAC40 index fell 27.50 points, or 0.34%, to 8,090.28; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 22.73 points, or 0.36%, to 6,237.65; Spain's IBEX35 index fell 6.46 points, or 0.03%, to 19,557.44; Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 102.27 points, or 0.20%, to 51,526.50. Asian StocksJapan's Nikkei 225 index edged slightly lower, while South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.85%. US Dollar IndexThe US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.23% on the day and closed at 99.616 at the end of foreign exchange trading. As of the close of New York foreign exchange trading, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1543 US dollars, down from 1.1557 US dollars the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3481 US dollars, down from 1.3511 US dollars the previous trading day. 1 US dollar exchanged for 155.09 yen, up from 154.05 yen the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8185 Swiss francs, up from 0.8163 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3917 Canadian dollars, up from 1.3902 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.7773 Swedish kronor, up from 9.7412 Swedish kronor the previous trading day. CryptocurrenciesBitcoin fell more than 4%, trading at 75,346 yuan as of press time; Ethereum fell more than 5.7%, to 2,386 US dollars. Crude OilLight crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.44 US dollars to close at 105.83 US dollars per barrel, a gain of 4.38%; London Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose 3.07 US dollars to close at 108.75 US dollars per barrel, a gain of 2.9%. Precious MetalsSpot gold fell to 4,293.55 US dollars per ounce; spot silver was at 63.672 US dollars per ounce. Macro News Cost of Shipping US Oil to Asia Soars to a Record 44.8 Million US Dollars. Affected by concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, the cost of shipping US crude oil to Asia rose to a record high. Baltic Exchange data showed that as of Tuesday, the cost of chartering a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) to transport 2 million barrels of US Gulf Coast crude oil to Asia was about 44.8 million US dollars, a record high, up further from 39 million US dollars the previous day. Before the outbreak of the Iran war, the shipping cost on this route was about 17.8 million US dollars. As the Middle East situation disrupts energy supply, US crude oil has become an important source to fill the supply gap. Saudi Arabia previously shut down the east-west pipeline connecting the east and west coasts, intensifying market concerns about supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sharp rise in freight rates, Asian buyers are still willing to bear higher shipping costs because US WTI crude oil remains more price-competitive than other competing crude oils after arriving in Asia. Data from research firm Kpler showed that six VLCCs are already scheduled to load crude oil from the US Gulf Coast for Asia in October. Vance Says the US-Iran War Will Enter a "Completely Different Phase" After Several Months. According to reports, US Vice President Vance said the US-Iran war will "enter a completely different phase after a few months." He agreed with Trump's view that the US-Iran conflict could end after the midterm elections. Vance said shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is recovering, Iran's control over the strait is declining, and traffic volume has now recovered to more than 50% of normal levels. He said the United States is currently not conducting offensive operations, but rather responding to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels. Vance said the US-Iran conflict is divided into two phases: the first phase aims to destroy Iran's nuclear program, weaken its conventional military capabilities and regional power projection capabilities; the second phase is to ensure Iran cannot restore these capabilities and to maintain regional stability. He also said the future situation still depends on whether Trump will continue to expand operations after the midterm elections, or whether Iran will be more willing to reach an agreement. CBO: The Iran War Cost the US 38 Billion US Dollars in 5 Months, and Inflation Expectations Will Rise by 0.5 Percentage Points in Early Next Year. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said that in the first five months since the Trump administration went to war with Iran, it has brought about 38 billion US dollars in direct costs to US taxpayers. The CBO said these expenditures mainly come from consumed ammunition and equipment replenishment, increased flight missions, other military operations, and fuel costs. The report estimated that for every additional month the war continues, the United States will add at least 2 billion to 3 billion US dollars in costs, and if the conflict escalates, costs could rise further. The CBO also said that due to disruptions to oil and natural gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the war will push up US inflation, and it is expected that by early 2027, the inflation gauge watched by the Federal Reserve will be 0.5 percentage points higher than previously forecast, while core PCE inflation will also be 0.3 percentage points higher. In addition, the CBO said the war has depleted US ammunition stockpiles, and some inventories may take more than five years to replenish, which could weaken the United States' ability to respond to other major conflicts. The report noted that if a major conflict requiring large reserves of missiles and ammunition occurs in the future, US defense industrial production capacity and the pace of inventory replenishment could come under pressure. Bessent Supports Trump's 5,000 US Dollar Payment Plan, Says It Will Not Increase the Fiscal Deficit. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Tuesday while being questioned by lawmakers in Congress that he supports Trump's proposed plan to send 5,000 US dollar checks to American adults if Republicans continue to control both chambers of Congress, and he downplayed concerns about the plan's cost. Bessent said: "I think there is a way to do this without affecting the fiscal deficit." Currently, financial markets are increasingly worried about the growing scale of US government debt. Bessent did not say how the cost of the plan would be offset, but said the Treasury Department has been working on the proposal for "quite a long time." He also did not mention that such payments may require congressional authorization. If congressional approval is indeed needed, Bessent said he would work with House Speaker Johnson to advance the proposal. Bessent's remarks came less than a week after Trump promised a 5,000 US dollar "dividend," a plan expected to cost more than 1 trillion US dollars. Individual Stock News Jensen Huang: The AI Industry Does Not Need New Safety Regulations. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday at an event hosted by Salesforce that the AI industry "does not need any new laws or regulations," reiterating his previous similar view that the idea that AI development must trade off between safety and speed is a "false proposition." Huang said the two can absolutely be achieved at the same time. "Companies can proceed at their own pace until they are confident that the products they launch will be accepted by the market. Market forces already exist. Companies are capable of deciding on their own not to release technologies or products that could cause harm." Earlier this week, Huang held a live phone connection with US President Trump at an event, and both rebutted recent views that AI development should be slowed down. Amazon.com, Inc. Says Data Recovery at Some AWS Facilities in Bahrain and the UAE Is Hindered. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) cloud service (AWS) said that due to damage suffered during the US-Iran war, some data centers in the Persian Gulf region still cannot restore data access. AWS said in its latest status update that it currently cannot access data stored only in the Bahrain data center and in some network areas of the UAE. Previously, two AWS data centers in Bahrain were attacked and damaged in the early stages of the conflict, with damage exceeding the range their service design could withstand. AWS said most customers have resumed operations through backups or by migrating to data centers in other countries, but data in one availability zone in the UAE is still inaccessible, and engineering teams are repairing resources in two other availability zones. The company expects to provide further updates on the recovery of Bahrain facilities in early next year. META Plans to Deploy Its New Self-Developed ARKE Chip in the First Half of Next Year, Showcasing the Cost-Reduction Advantages of Self-Developed Chips. According to reports, Meta Platforms (META.US) plans to begin deploying its new self-developed ARKE chip in data centers in the first half of next year, and the company said this move will save costs and energy when running artificial intelligence models. The company first announced plans to independently develop AI chips as early as 2023, and is currently testing the third generation of the series, codenamed MTIA 450, or Arke. The next-generation product, codenamed 500, or Astrid, will complete design work in about a month and be put into use in data centers by the end of 2027. Meta expects broader adoption of this product in the future. Meta Vice President of Engineering Jiun Song said in an interview: "Each generation of chips takes on higher technical risk, but performance has also improved significantly." The report said Meta Superintelligence Labs helped fine-tune the chips by providing insights into future AI models and their operating requirements, namely the inference stage. Song said the end result is that when running AI models, these chips will be more efficient than "anything NVIDIA Corporation currently offers," "simply because we have done a great deal of engineering work ourselves."