Even the "White House Stock God" can fumble? Of 17 "Trump concept stocks," 14 have tanked.

U.S. President Donald Trump frequently touts his administration's investment in Intel Corporation (INTC.US)especially the chipmaker's massive stock gains since the deal was announced. But the fate of more than a dozen other listed companies in the U.S. government's ever-expanding portfolio tells a far less glorious story. Analysis shows that stocks of other companies that struck deals with the Trump administration often follow the opposite path: a common trajectory is a significant rise around the formal announcement, followed by sharp volatility, and then gains that are often given back almost as quickly. The full picture of the "sugar high" rally Take USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) as an example: data shows that in the five trading days around the announcement of the government cooperation agreement in January this year, the stock surged more than 80%. But within weeks, all of those gains (and more) were erasedit closed at $15.71 per share on Monday, far below the post-agreement high above $30. This is not an isolated case. Analysis shows that of the 17 listed companies that received government investment, 14 closed last week below their levels on the day after the agreement was announced. Even investors who managed to position themselves before the government investment often exited at a loss: compared with 10 trading days before the formal announcement, 11 of the 17 companies currently show negative returns. "This of course looks like a 'sugar high,'" noted Tad DeHaven, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute who has studied government shareholdings and is critical of the Trump administration's approach. "There appear to be short-term benefits... but in the long run, it ultimately comes down to fundamentals." The picture at the individual stock level is even more intuitive. Trilogy Metals' (TMQ.US) American depositary shares soared from $2.09 to a high of $10.60 within days after the government's October equity agreement was announced, then quickly gave back the gains and now trade at $3.62; MP Materials (MP.US) surged more than 150% within five weeks after the government took a stake, but has since fallen nearly 27% over the past year; even Intel Corporation, regarded as a "model case," has pulled back 37% after peaking on news of a June chip partnership with Apple Inc., the fifth-worst performance among S&P 500 constituents over the same period. Three survivors, and an exaggerated "hundreds of billions" Only three of the 17 companies currently have share prices higher than on the day the agreement was announced: Intel Corporation, Nippon Steel (which issued the government a "golden share" with super-voting rights but is not an equity investment), and rare earth magnet company MP Materials, which reached an agreement with the government in July 2025. But even for MP Materials, while investors who bought immediately after the agreement was announced and held until now would have a positive return, the stock peaked last October and is currently far below its 52-week high amid sharp volatility. Intel Corporation is the theme the government repeatedly promotes. Trump recently posted an image on Truth Social depicting himself as a stock trader in the Oval Office, writing: "I have made Billions of Dollars for the United States, not for myself, on Stocks and many other types of Holdings." "Hundreds of billions" is an exaggeration, but the value of the government's Intel Corporation stake has indeed risen from an estimated $8.9 billion when the deal was struck to more than $50 billion now. Intel Corporation closed at $97.19 on Monday, down more than 5% that day, but still more than four times its price before the August 2025 agreement was announced. Worth noting for investors: the 32nd investment, and a portfolio spanning six major sectors Intel Corporation was an early template the Trump team has tried hard to replicate. The government recently completed its 32nd corporate investment: a privately held oil drilling company called North American Blue Energy Partnersit received a 100-year lease on a tract of land in Venezuela with estimated reserves of 65 billion barrels of oil. The government's portfolio now spans quantum computing, semiconductors, oil drilling, steel, nuclear energy, and rare earth mineral companies. The Trump team often describes these investments as "passive," but concerns remain: the government's dual role as both investor and regulator will allow political power to distort the entire market. Particularly worth retail investors' attention is that many of these companies have already underperformed their respective sector indexesfor investors hoping to ride the government's coattails, the evidence from public markets is itself a wake-up call. Economic research also sides with the skeptics. The original text notes that a 2025 survey of economists showed that the vast majority of respondents believed government equity stakes often harm both company performance and corporate governance. Legal and political landmines are being planted before November The cracks in this "government concept stock" feast go beyond share prices. According to reports, a shareholder lawsuit is challenging in court the legality of the government's stake in Intel Corporationthe complaint argues that the CHIPS Act did not authorize the Commerce Department to use equity as a condition for disbursing subsidies. If the court agrees, the legal foundation of the entire government equity portfolio would be shaken. Political risk is also looming: polls show Democrats are expected to retake at least one chamber of Congress in the midterm elections, and Elizabeth Warren, who could then become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has already questioned Commerce Secretary Lutnick over the Intel Corporation investment. Henrietta Treyz, co-founder of research firm Veda Partners, warned that subpoenas by a Democratic-led committee for corporate executives and government officials to testify at hearings are "one of the risks investors need to watch most closely right now"and the midterm elections are now less than two months away. The mechanistic explanation is equally sobering. According to an AInvest analysis, the more than $4 trillion in new investment claimed by the government (Apple Inc. $600 billion, Meta $600 billion, Stargate and NVIDIA Corporation about $500 billion each) is essentially "commitments spread over many years, while the market priced them in over a single afternoon"announcements instantly re-rate price-to-earnings multiples, but only real cash and orders can keep the gains there. On this, the Cato Institute's DeHaven sees it more clearly: the Trump team is "making it up as they go along," and they "have not offered serious legal analysis on anything, and all of this points to the improvised nature of the whole operation."