Western: Industry AUM continues to recover; third-party channel non-money-market fund AUM ranks first.

Western released a research report stating that the fund industry association recently disclosed data on fund distribution institutions' retained scale as of the end of 26H1. The non-money-market fund retained scale of the top 100 distribution institutions by retained scale in 26H1 was RMB 13.79 trillion, +17.9% versus 25H2, and the CR5/CR10 of equity fund retained scale both increased quarter over quarter. Against the backdrop of residents' funds continuing to increase allocation to equities and a recovery in market sentiment, leading wealth management institutions with comprehensive product systems and leading advisory capabilities are expected to achieve sustained growth in distribution scale. Pay attention to third-party leaders such as Ant/Tiantian, and leading brokerages in ETFs and wealth management. Western's main views are as follows: The recovery in market sentiment drove continued growth in the retained scale of various products, with index products growing faster than actively managed equity products The non-money-market fund retained scale of the top 100 distribution institutions by retained scale in 26H1 was RMB 13.79 trillion, +17.9% versus 25H2; the total retained scale of equity funds increased +17.8% versus 25H2 to RMB 7.06 trillion, of which the scale of equity index funds increased +21.9% versus 25H2 to RMB 2.94 trillion. The scale of actively managed equity funds rose +15.1% quarter over quarter to RMB 4.12 trillion. Back-calculating the bond fund retained scale of the top 100 distribution institutions by subtracting equity funds from non-money-market funds gives RMB 6.73 trillion, +18% versus 25H2, and demand for fixed-income and fixed-income-plus product allocation also grew. In terms of market share, the equity fund market shares of banks/brokerages/third parties (as a percentage of the average of the full-market scale at the beginning and end of the period) were 27.7%/19.3%/25.6%, respectively, +1.15pct/+1.37pct/+4.07pct quarter over quarter; the non-money-market market shares of banks/brokerages/third parties were 22.8%/13.1%/23.1%, respectively, +0.07pct/+0.97pct/+3.37pct quarter over quarter. The CR5/CR10 of equity fund retained scale both increased quarter over quarter. Third parties and others: non-money-market fund retained scale became the top channel The equity/non-money-market retained scale of third-party and other institutions in 26H1 increased +27.4%/+27.7% versus 25H2, faster than other channels, demonstrating strong platform and traffic advantages. In 26H1, Ant Fund's equity retained scale rose +30.1% quarter over quarter to RMB 1,324.6 billion, and its equity index fund retained scale rose +30.8% quarter over quarter to RMB 631.3 billion, cementing its industry leadership. Tiantian Fund's equity/non-money-market retained scale rose +12.7%/+22.0%, respectively, to RMB 450.9 billion/RMB 883.5 billion. Brokerages: the head concentration effect remains significant, with a leading advantage in index products The equity/non-money-market retained scale of brokerages in 26H1 increased +15.3%/+17.8% versus 25H2. In 26H1, the retained scale of brokerage equity index funds was RMB 1,533.7 billion, +16.6% versus 25H2. Under the ETF sales advantage, the brokerage channel accounted for more than half of the full market's equity index retained scale. In 26H1, the bond fund retained scale of the brokerage channel rose +27.5% quarter over quarter to RMB 1.95 trillion. In 26H1, the distribution revenue growth of listed brokerages outperformed agency trading, and the industry's wealth management transformation continued to deepen. Coupled with the regulatory classification rating guidance that gives bonus points to brokerages among the top in incremental equity fund sales retained scale, the wealth management market share of leading brokerages with comprehensive capabilities is still expected to increase. Banks: equity index retained scale continued to grow rapidly, but the overall share and growth advantage narrowed significantly The equity/non-money-market retained scale of banks in 26H1 increased +11.8%/+9.4% versus 25H2 to RMB 2.69 trillion/RMB 5.33 trillion; equity index retained scale rose +29.7% to RMB 464.2 billion, mainly driven by the low base in the earlier period and residents' asset allocation shifting toward equities. In 26H1, the bond fund retained scale of the banking channel rose +18.5% quarter over quarter to RMB 2.4 trillion. China Merchants Bank's equity/non-money-market retained scale rose +22.3%/+26.6%, respectively, to RMB 746.5 billion/RMB 1,580.8 billion, leading within the banking sector. Risk warnings: fund redemption risk, market volatility risk, policy risk.