US oral weight-loss drug competition escalates! Eli Lilly (LLY.US) Foundayo captures 30% of new patients, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) first-mover advantage narrows.

Eli Lilly (LLY.US) said on Monday that its oral weight-loss drug Foundayo has captured more than 30% of new patients in the U.S. oral obesity treatment market, narrowing the early lead that Danish rival Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) had built with its Wegovy oral tablet. It is understood that Eli Lilly's oral weight-loss drug Foundayo was launched in early April, about three months later than Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's competing Wegovy oral tablet. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B CEO Mike Doustdar said in August that despite competition from Eli Lilly's oral drug Foundayo, the company estimates that the Wegovy oral tablet has captured about 90% of the U.S. oral weight-loss market. Investors are closely watching demand for oral weight-loss drugs, which are expected to expand the weight-loss market by attracting patients unwilling to use injections and to ease some of the supply challenges associated with injectable therapies. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B said in January that it expects oral drugs to account for more than one-third of GLP-1 weight-loss treatment use by 2030. Analysts expect the overall U.S. obesity treatment market alone to exceed $100 billion annually by that year. Eli Lilly Executive Vice President Ilya Yuffa said at the Morgan Stanley healthcare conference in New York that Eli Lilly's injectable GLP-1 weight-loss drug Zepbound is also favored by patients in the U.S. government's Medicare weight-loss drug pilot program launched in July. Yuffa said the program allows eligible beneficiaries to obtain weight-loss drugs for a $50 monthly out-of-pocket cost, and 60% to 70% of patients participating in the program are receiving such treatment for the first time. Medicare serves people aged 65 and older or those with disabilities, covering about 66 million people. Outside the United States, Eli Lilly also faces new competition in India and Canada, where generic versions of Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes treatments Wegovy and Ozempic are priced as low as 70% below the original price in those markets. But Yuffa said the entry of these generics has only made the market bigger. He added: "When the market expands significantly through generics, market share declines. But in those markets, Mounjaro's overall sales, absolute sales, are still growing." Mounjaro is the brand name for Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in markets outside the United States for obesity and diabetes.