Three giants simultaneously call for a "slowdown": AI faith shaken, oil price breaks $100, Fed rate hike imminentUS stocks may face the most perilous week of the year.

Notice that in the coming week, US stocks will face a dense lineup of focal points: investors will be busy analyzing US and global macroeconomic data, primary market developments, corporate actions, global monetary policy decisions, and other major global clues. Macroeconomic data will become the focus, while new stock listings will also drive stock-specific moves, and crude oil prices as well as developments in the US and Asian markets will dominate sector trends. Foreign investors' trading activity will influence overall market trends. In this shortened trading week, market participants will proceed cautiously amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict and the evolution of the Middle East situation will dominate global crude oil price trends. Said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments Ltd. "The macroeconomic calendar for the coming week is very dense, with key releases including US inflation data and policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which together with crude oil trends will determine short-term market direction. Elevated energy prices, sustained foreign outflows, and geopolitical uncertainty will keep volatility high." Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan Policy Decisions The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on September 16, with the market heavily betting that the US central bank will raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point. After data showed that consumer inflation rebounded in August, Wall Street's expectations further intensified. Some investors believe this decision will test Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's anti-inflation credibilitya credibility that is under scrutiny after his press conference following the July policy meeting. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on September 18, and the market widely expects policymakers to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, which would be the highest level in more than three decades. Three giants simultaneously call for an "AI slowdown," US AI trade faces a stress test Last weekend, a rare scene played out in the AI industry: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a long article titled "We Must Control the Frontier," calling on the entire industry to slow down frontier model development; OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Musk immediately publicly responded, with Musk saying "Dario is right." Altman also told the media that OpenAI will not go public this year out of safety considerations. The market fell first. During Asian trading on Monday, the MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index fell 0.5%, and both Japanese and South Korean stock markets declined. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 1%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%. How great is the short-term pressure? Market participants said chip and supply chain stocks will bear the brunt in the opening selloff. High valuations, crowded trades, and macroeconomic headwinds are resonating togetherthe Nasdaq 100 has already fallen more than 4% from its June high, while the US chip index has dropped 14% over the same period, and this week's Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and geopolitical risks are pushing up global financing costs. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 and the MSCI global index rose slightly by 0.6% over the same period, indicating that the current adjustment is highly concentrated within the AI main line. But analysts generally do not believe the long-term logic has been broken. Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said: "This may bring some short-term pressure, but it is unlikely to undermine the long-term AI trade. AI development is still in its early stages, and I am not sure whether other participants in the ecosystem are willing to slow down in sync at a time when technology is evolving rapidly." Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X Management, offered a more positive interpretation: "The three CEOs agreeing to control the pace will not really reduce spending on chips, power, and infrastructure; in fact, it instead extends the development cycle. If commercialization continues to grow while iteration slows slightly, the industry's focus will shift from 'spending money to build' to 'monetizing existing assets.'" Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Financial, pointed out that tech stock valuations are built not only on demand but also on expectations of continued rapid model iteration, and related pricing will face more scrutiny; however, safety mechanisms will drive new investment in cybersecurity and AI monitoring tools, and memory, networking, cooling, and power equipment manufacturers still have projects under construction to support earnings. "More compliant and controllable R&D actually makes opportunities in the AI sector more sustainable." Cautious voices also exist. Some market participants question whether the "slowdown" is truly for safety or because massive capital expenditure means they "cannot afford to burn money anymore"if the latter is true, investors will have to re-examine AI pricing logic and should not blindly chase highs at current levels. In the short term, AI concept stocks will inevitably come under pressure at Monday's open; in the medium term, the real watershed is whether this round of "deceleration" is a gesture or a turning point. Combined with Anthropic negotiating with Nvidia to serve as a cornerstone investor in a super IPO that could be valued at $2 trillion, Wall Street's faith in AI will face a public stress test this week. Oil price spike stirs inflation expectations, US stocks face a triple stress test this week After Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was attacked by drones last week, it was shut down. This major artery, with a maximum transport capacity of 7 million barrels per day and recent actual volumes accounting for 4%5% of global supply, was originally Saudi Arabia's only export route bypassing the war-blocked Strait of Hormuznow the "bypass option" itself has become a target. Combined with Houthi forces capturing Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another oil tanker being attacked and catching fire in Hormuz on Sunday, and Oman temporarily postponing an Iran-Gulf states meeting, supply risks are accumulating across multiple fronts. Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Sunday in response, with Brent surging to about $107.9, and US diesel retail prices have already broken through a record $6 per gallon. For inflation, this is adding fuel to the fire. US CPI already rebounded in August, energy costs are seeping into prices along the transportation chain, and the disinflation path for September-October may change. With the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday imminent and the market heavily betting on a 25 basis point rate hike, high oil prices will further strengthen hawkish wording, Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation credibility will be tested again, and the tightening cycle may be prolonged. For US stocks, the direction is bearish but structurally divergent: energy stocks (already up more than 30% year-to-date), gold, the dollar, and other safe-haven assets benefit; airlines, chemicals, consumer sectors, and rate-sensitive high-valuation growth stocks come under pressure. More troublesome is that this week the market is also compounded by the chip stock selloff triggered by the "AI three giants calling for a slowdown" (in Sunday's gray market, SK Hynix fell more than 4.6% and Nvidia fell 2.2%) and bubble concerns over margin debt peaking and rolling over, leaving risk appetite already fragile.