Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | In August, global gold ETFs attracted $18 billion, and Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will rise to $4,900 by the end of 2026 (including concept stocks)

The World Gold Council has released a report stating that global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $18 billion in August, with total assets under management rising by 16% from the previous month to $615 billion. Holdings increased by 121 tons to 4,189 tons, reaching a historical high. North America and Europe combined contributed about 90% of the global capital inflow, with Europe achieving its strongest monthly performance ever, while North America recorded the third-largest monthly inflow in history. European gold ETFs attracted $7.9 billion in inflows in August. In addition to the concerns about fiscal sustainability that both Europe and North America face, European investors continue to bear the pressure of high sovereign debt borrowing costs, making golds role as a portfolio diversifier and alternative asset to sovereign bonds increasingly prominent. The report points out that policy concerns arising from U.S. interventions in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, ongoing fiscal sustainability worries under pressure in the U.S. Treasury market, and the renewed risk of dollar depreciation have collectively prompted investors to accelerate their allocation to gold. At the same time, gold prices breaking through key technical levels have further strengthened market momentum, attracting more tactical and institutional capital. Central bank long-term buying has established a solid bottom for gold prices. In the second quarter, global central banks purchased a net 289 tons of gold, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 62%. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 22nd consecutive month. By the end of August, China's gold reserves reached 76.73 million ounces, an increase of 650,000 ounces from the previous month, the largest monthly increase since October 2023. In light of the global trend of "de-dollarization," diversifying asset allocation and gradually reducing reliance on dollar assets may be a main direction for future central bank asset allocation. Goldman Sachs Research recently projected that driven by strong demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs analysts also indicated that as investors use gold call options to hedge their portfolios against potential significant changes in government policy, market demand for gold call options is risingwhich could amplify bidirectional price volatility. Qiu Rui, senior vice president of the Research and Development Department at Orient Gold, stated that the current trend of gold prices depends on the U.S. inflation data for August and the September Federal Reserve meeting. If the core CPI continues to decline, the probability of the Fed remaining "on hold" in September will significantly increase, and gold prices are expected to break through the $4,600 per ounce resistance. If inflation data rebounds or remains flat month-on-month, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September will rise, and gold prices may retreat to around $4,300 per ounce. Looking ahead, the World Gold Council believes that U.S. fiscal and debt issues remain significant support for gold. If government interventions in the bond market can alleviate financing pressures, the rise in gold prices may be temporarily restrained; however, if the market perceives that such interventions reflect increased fiscal stress, then factors like declining real yields and a weakening dollar could instead further push up gold prices. In the absence of credible fiscal consolidation plans, gold may still benefit from investors' concerns about debt and fiscal sustainability. Related stocks: CHINAGOLDINTL (02099): For the first half of 2026, the company reported sales revenue of approximately $914 million, a year-on-year increase of 57.52%. Mining operating profit is around $620 million, a year-on-year increase of 123.83%; profit attributable to the owners of the company is approximately $507 million, a year-on-year increase of 153.31%; earnings per share of 127.99 cents. Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693): For the first half of 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.11%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%; basic earnings per share of 0.92 yuan. Zijin Mining Group (02899): For the first half of 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of 194.178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 39.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.17%.