Guotai Haitong: The expansion of supply in the performance industry continues, and the capability to reuse resources establishes long-term competitiveness.

Guotai Haitong issued a research report stating that the performance market has shifted from recovery growth to a stage of supply expansion and efficiency competition. By 2025, key indicators related to commercial performances nationwide will continue to grow, and industry evaluation standards will gradually shift towards refined operational dimensions. Artists and IP rights holders control the demand entry point and can gain strong bargaining power due to the scarcity of content. Profits are more likely to be consolidated in segments that can control scarce resources, form unified trading networks, and continuously accumulate user relationships. The firm recommends focusing on three investment lines: ticketing platforms, venue operations, and quality copyrights. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: The performance market has shifted from recovery growth to a stage of supply expansion and efficiency competition. By 2025, the number of commercial performances, box office revenue, and audience attendance will continue to grow nationwide. Both supply and demand sides remain active, but the growth rate of performance numbers exceeds that of audience attendance, imposing higher requirements on occupancy rates, per-performance output, and refined operations for new supply. From the perspective of different formats, large-scale performances rely on top artists, scarce content, and intercity audiences to create a strong box office aggregation effect, generating high per-performance income; however, project volatility is also significant as scheduling, approvals, transportation organization, and weather can all affect project realization. Tourist performances are based on destination traffic, with high frequency of supply and long operational cycles, where income stability depends on location conditions, product iteration, and channel conversion. Theatrical performances constitute an important supply within urban daily cultural consumption, with a more fragmented market where content reserves, scheduling efficiency, and user repurchase determine operational quality. There is still room for expansion in these three formats, but industry evaluation standards are gradually shifting from the total number of performances and box office to occupancy rates, content reuse, and user retention. The bargaining power in the industry chain primarily depends on the control of scarce content, the degree of risk borne by box office, and the ability to reuse key resources across projects. Artists and IP rights holders control the demand entry point and can gain strong bargaining power due to the scarcity of content. Organizers connect content procurement, production, publicity, ticket sales, and on-site fulfillment, bearing box office, cost, and compliance risks, which leads to high revenue elasticity but relatively insufficient stability. Venues impact project income limits through location, capacity, and scheduling; operators that can continuously introduce quality content and develop comprehensive consumption capacity are more likely to form stable cash flows. Ticketing platforms connect content, venues, and audiences, performing infrastructural functions in areas such as real-name verification, payment settlement, inventory management, refunds, and user operations. There are numerous participants in the industry, with distinct project-based characteristics and a relatively dispersed overall pattern, where competition among ticketing platforms is stable and continues to extend into publicity, membership, data, and content services. Profits are more easily consolidated in segments that can control scarce resources, form unified trading networks, and continuously accumulate user relationships. International comparison: The competitive advantage of mature performance markets comes from the continuous reuse of content, venues, ticketing, and user resources. Global leader LiveNation in offline performances covers performance promotion, venue operations, Ticketmaster ticketing, and sponsorship advertising, connecting artists, venues, brands, and audiences through a unified network. Performance promotion contributes the main revenue and traffic; ticketing and sponsorship businesses, due to their light capital characteristics and network effects, contribute higher profits and support project acquisition, pricing, and marketing through user data. The venue network enhances content carrying capacity while providing entry points for ticketing, sponsorship, dining, and parking revenues. London's West End and New York's Broadway rely on a parallel of long-running shows and new arrivals, high-frequency scheduling, and touring releases to extend the lifespan of works. After undergoing initial market validation, mature works can share upfront investments through re-staging, cast rotation, multi-city tours, regional licensing, and cross-media adaptations, and can repeatedly utilize venues, ticketing, and audience systems in different markets. International cases show that scale expansion needs to be based on reusable resources and collaborative mechanisms; merely increasing the number of projects does not sustain improvement in profit quality. Recommendations for three investment lines: (1) Ticketing platforms connect content supply, venue inventory, and audience demand; technology systems and user accounts can be reused across venues, cities, and projects. As transaction scales expand, network effects and profit consolidation are formed. It is recommended to prioritize platforms that can consistently secure top projects, possess a high transaction share and active user base, and can extend ticketing traffic into publicity, membership, and content services. (2) Venue operations can develop income from ticketing, sponsorship, dining, parking, and commercial space around stable audience traffic. Focus should be placed on professional operators that own long-term operational rights to quality venues in core cities, have stable basic management fee income, light capital expenditure pressure, and the ability to continuously introduce content and develop comprehensive consumption capacity. (3) Quality copyrights, after market validation, can extend the income cycle through residencies, re-stagings, multi-city tours, regional licensing, and cross-media adaptations. It is recommended to pay attention to content companies that own long-term core copyrights, hold a reserve of mature projects, and have cross-regional distribution networks that can continuously launch works and realize multiple monetization rounds. Risk reminder: risks of box office falling short of expectations; risks of artist moral impact; risks of ticketing after-sales disputes; risks of intensified competition; risks of tightening regulations.