JP Morgan: Hong Kong's policy address may increase the stamp duty on luxury homes, but the overall impact remains manageable.

The Hong Kong government will release its first five-year plan and a new Policy Address next Wednesday (September 16). JP Morgan expects that the Hong Kong government may further increase the stamp duty on luxury properties in the upcoming Policy Address, although the impact is anticipated to be manageable. JP Morgan points out that while this is not its baseline expectation, the possibility of further increasing the stamp duty on luxury properties cannot be entirely ruled out. Even if this occurs, the bank expects the impact to remain controllable. JP Morgan further indicated that the first five-year planning report published by the Hong Kong government is not expected to introduce any meaningful support measures for the private housing market. The focus of the Policy Address may be on accelerating development in the northern areas and attracting talent, which are anticipated to support housing demand. However, in the short term, the stock prices of Hong Kong developers will primarily be influenced by the outlook on interest rates.