Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | London Copper Hits New Historical Highs, UBS: Future Copper Prices May Rise to $15,500 (With Concept Stocks)

Copper futures prices on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of $14,533 per ton during trading on Monday. Analysts point out that the market expects the U.S. may impose new import tariffs on refined copper, prompting traders to ship copper to the U.S. in advance, which has tightened supplies outside the U.S. and driven global copper prices upward. So far this year, copper prices have increased by about 17%, and over the past 12 months, the increase has been as high as 47%. Cristin Cifuentes, a senior analyst at Chilean mining think tank Cesco, stated that this trend is "more driven by tariff-induced metal relocations rather than strong end-user demand," indicating that there is "a localized shortage, rather than a global demand surplus." The U.S. has accumulated significant copper inventories, leading to a prolonged premium of copper prices on the New York Commodity Exchange compared to London. In May 2026, the price difference between the two exchanges widened to $400 to $500 per ton. Attracted by inter-market arbitrage opportunities, traders accelerated the withdrawal of LME-registered warrants and shipped them to the U.S. The total refined copper imports to the U.S. for the entire year of 2025 surged to about 1.4 million tons, nearly 800,000 tons more than in a normal year; in July 2026 alone, approximately 200,000 tons of copper metal arrived in the U.S., marking the highest single-month inflow since records began in 2014. Global copper supply from mines may see its first annual decline since 2017. Due to factors such as lower ore grades from large mines, maintenance, slow project ramp-ups, and operational constraints, copper production in Chile during the first half of this year was 2.481 million tons, down 6.7% year on year. The latest forecast from the Chilean National Copper Corporation (Cochilco) indicates that Chile's copper production in 2026 is expected to decline by 2.6% year on year to 5.27 million tons, further revised down from the 5.3 million tons forecast released in May this year. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) also downgraded its global copper mine production growth forecast for 2026 from 2.3% to 1.6%. According to Pacific Securities, the global copper supply-demand gap for 2026 to 2028 is projected to be 40,000 tons, 350,000 tons, and 430,000 tons, respectively, indicating a strong supply-demand situation in the copper market, where supply growth is expected to lag behind demand growth. UBS predicts that copper prices will reach $15,500 per ton in the coming quarters. Tianfeng noted that the recent spike in copper prices is the result of multiple factors such as disturbances at the mining level, depletion of inventories, and a weakening dollar, rather than solely driven by demand recovery. In the short term, core variables to watch include Chilean mine production, export policies for copper concentrate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and global inventory fluctuations; in the medium to long term, issues like the aging of global mines, the lengthy start-up cycle for new mines, and sustained demand driven by AI, power grids, and new energy are expected to maintain a tight balance between copper supply and demand. Related concept stocks: CHINFMINING (01258): The company expects a comprehensive copper production of approximately 484,000 tons in 2026, including about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and approximately 350,000 tons of blister/anode copper. Due to planned maintenance at the Qianbixi copper smelter and the Lu'alaba copper smelter, the output of blister/anode copper will decrease. It is expected to produce about 155,000 tons of copper from self-owned mines for the whole year; produce approximately 900,000 tons of sulfuric acid; produce about 100,000 tons of liquid sulfur dioxide; and produce around 600 tons of cobalt hydroxide. JIANGXI COPPER (00358): Jiangxi Copper, as a leading domestic copper smelter, has an annual cathode copper capacity of 2.1 million tons, with copper business revenues accounting for over 70%. CMOC Group Limited (03993): CMOC Group Limited is a leading global "mining + trading" company, with significant production in tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum, and is also an important producer of copper and phosphate fertilizers, ranking among the top three in base metal trading globally. The company currently holds 80% of TFM, one of the worlds largest and highest-grade operating copper-cobalt mines; it also holds 71.25% of KFM, a world-class greenfield copper-cobalt mine.