Shenwan Hongyuan Group: The production and consumption of coal in Xinjiang is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) and others.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group has released a research report stating that coal production and consumption in Xinjiang are expected to grow significantly. Logistics companies in Xinjiang can use the key hubs along the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway as important logistics park nodes, while advantageous industrial enterprises can build a "Logistics Park + Industrial Park" collaborative ecosystem around these nodes to create an economic corridor. It is recommended to pay attention to TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) and Yankuang Energy Group (01171), which have potential for capacity growth in the Xinjiang region. The main points from Shenwan Hongyuan Group are as follows: Xinjiang has rich coal reserves, high resource quality, and low mining costs, with enormous potential for future incremental growth. They predict a resource amount of 21.9 trillion tons, accounting for about 40% of the national total, with a cumulative proven resource amount of 4.5 billion tons, of which low metamorphic coal accounts for 90%. Four major coalfields have been formed: Tuha, Junggar, Yili, and Kubuqi, with a projected output of 553 million tons by 2025, accounting for 11.44% of the national total. In the next five years, capacity will be further enhanced. The shallow burial of Xinjiang coal and its lower mining costs compared to inland regions create a geographical advantage for energy. By 2025, coal exports from Xinjiang are expected to reach 150 million tons, with about 410 million tons consumed within the region, where the coal and electricity, as well as coal chemical industries, will account for about 70% of consumption. Both coal production and consumption in Xinjiang are expected to increase significantly. Xinjiang's railway is entering a phase of major construction and development. After the completion of the Lin-Ha backbone passage in 2027, an additional outbound capacity of 200 million tons is expected. On the demand side, the construction of large pithead thermal power plants will be promoted to meet regional electricity needs and "West-to-East Power Transmission." The development of coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is good, and by the end of 2029, it is optimistically projected that coal consumption for chemical purposes will reach 269/204/148 million tons under optimistic/neutral/conservative scenarios, indicating significant overall development prospects. The export of Xinjiang coal is an important component of the national energy security system, with outbound channels continuously improving. The outbound railway presents a pattern of "one main line and two auxiliary lines," with the Lanxin Line as the core channel. After the opening of the Lanxin high-speed railway, it will release capacity from the conventional line to secure operations for the "China-Europe Railway Express" and the export of Xinjiang coal. The northern wing channel, the Lin-Ha line, is being accelerated as the future core influx channel for materials. Major road channels include G30 Lianhuo Expressway, National Highway 312, G7 Jingxin Expressway, and Naoliu Road, among others. The capacity utilization rate of G7 Expressway needs improvement, and the Naoliu Road has begun reconstruction and expansion. Some energy enterprises within Xinjiang have started to establish multimodal transport bases or coal pre-storage warehouse layouts. Risk warnings: An increase in new energy supply exceeding expectations, advanced energy storage technology development; macroeconomic decline exceeding expectations, coal demand falling below expectations; significant drop in international coal demand and international coal prices falling beyond expectations; slower-than-expected progress in the construction of "Xinjiang coal export" channels.