The U.S. military has for the first time targeted three Iranian oil tankers, escalating the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz from "blowing up facilities" to "cutting off transportation."

This week, the nature of the U.S.-Iran military conflict underwent a significant shift, as U.S. military strikes targeted, for the first time, oil tankers in transit, moving away from attacking coastal military facilities and infrastructure. The risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is now approaching reality rather than remaining a theoretical concern, requiring a reassessment of the global oil pricing logic. According to a statement from the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on September 5, "After the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran fired ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy ships patrolling in regional waters, CENTCOM forces struck three Iranian oil tankers." CENTCOM subsequently issued a strongly worded statement: "We will not hesitate to defend U.S. forces and will destroy Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet if necessary." This marked the first time since the conflict escalated in February that U.S. forces have included oil tankers in transit as targets, indicating an official upgrade in U.S.-Iran confrontations from "striking production capacity and facilities" to "striking transportation routes." Market focus has thus shifted from "How much will Iran cut production?" to "Can the Strait pass safely?" The pricing framework for oil and marine insurance is now under pressure for reevaluation. Earlier the same day, Iranian media reported that an oil tanker near Halk Island had allegedly been struck by a U.S. missile, with evacuation efforts underway and no casualties reported so far. On the previous day, Tehran reportedly launched anti-ship missiles at vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The sustained military actions targeting maritime shipping lanes have heightened the shipping risk premium in the region, as the Strait of Hormuz faces its most severe security challenge since the start of the conflict. Targeting has fundamentally changed: from facility destruction to targeting oil tankers Over the past week, U.S. military strikes have focused on the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air defense positions, mining facilities, radar systems, maritime assets, communication stations, as well as ground facilities at oil export hubs like Larak Island and Halk Island. Last Sunday, CENTCOM conducted "limited and precise actions" against Iranian mine-laying forces in the Strait; on Tuesday, it launched a new round of strikes against IRGC air defense positions and mining facilities. The direct targeting of three oil tankers in transit expands the target from static military assets to dynamic transport vessels. According to the U.S. side, the trigger for this action was Iran's launch of ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy ships. CENTCOM's public warning that it "will destroy Iran's oil fleet if necessary" further indicates that the U.S. intends to include Iran's energy export capabilities in its scope of strikes. Compared to prior damage to infrastructure, striking oil tankers directly impacts Iran's oil export capacity more immediately and directly. Disruption of shipping has become a reality: the safety of passage through the Strait is a core variable The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 20% of global oil transport and is the most crucial chokepoint in global energy supply. Previously, market pricing related to the conflict primarily revolved around Iran's capacity loss and facility damage. Now, direct attacks on tankers have spread the risks to the passage itself; disruptions are no longer a hypothetical scenario. According to the Iranian Fars News Agency on September 5, multiple explosions were reported in the waters near Halk Island, with an Iranian oil tanker allegedly struck by a U.S. missile, and evacuation efforts underway, with no casualties reported yet. The previous day, Tehran reportedly launched anti-ship missiles at vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. There are discrepancies between Iranian and U.S. accounts regarding the number and specific locations of the oil tankers involved, but both sides point to the core fact that "tankers have been attacked." Iran subsequently responded. According to a report from the Islamic Republic News Agency on September 6, the IRGC's public relations department announced that the IRGC Air Force launched multiple ballistic missiles, striking a U.S. aircraft carrier and a destroyer, claiming that the two U.S. ships "were forced to withdraw from the conflict area after sustaining damage." The intense exchanges targeting maritime transport routes signify that the Strait of Hormuz is facing its most severe security test since the outbreak of the current conflict. Switching of the oil pricing logic: Can the geopolitical premium persist? For the oil market, the current core issue is no longer "How much oil can Iran produce?" but rather "Can this oil be exported?" If attacks on tankers further extend to international commercial fleets, the pricing of shipping insurance will face continued upward pressure, subsequently affecting shipowners' routing choices and overall logistics costs. Amid the escalating conflict, oil prices have been at a high level: WTI crude stabilized around $91 per barrel after a cumulative rise of approximately 9% over three consecutive days, while the Brent oil settlement price closed below $96. Market participants indicate that the latest round of escalation may continue to support oil prices, but whether there exists a window for U.S.-Iran negotiations to "de-escalate" will determine the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium. Key observations going forward include whether U.S. military strikes will systematically expand against Iranian oil tankers and whether significant changes will occur in the passage arrangements and shipping insurance rates for international commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. This article is reprinted from "Wall Street Insights," by Zhao Ying, edited by Xu Wenqiang.