China Securities Co., Ltd.: The express delivery industry is shifting from "price wars" to a comprehensive game of "market share + service."

China Securities Co., Ltd. has released a research report stating that the express delivery industry in Q2 2026 presents three main characteristics: first, the industry's growth rate is shifting downward, but resilience during peak seasons remains; second, in terms of competition, Shentong has achieved a turnaround with the support of the Alibaba ecosystem, while Yuantong steadily narrows the gap with Zhongtong, leading to a potential reshuffling of the top players; third, revenue growth generally outpaces business volume, indicating a easing of vicious price competition in the industry, with companies focusing more on operational quality. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the industry is entering a traditional transition between peak and off-peak seasons, compounded by the regulatory body's ongoing attention to low-price competition. Leading companies are expected to seek better solutions in balancing volume and price, with cost control capabilities and differentiated services becoming key differentiators. Main viewpoints of China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows: Industry Overview From the performance of various transportation sub-sectors relative to the CSI 300, the transportation sector as a whole rose this week (August 24 - August 28), with the logistics composite sector up 3.20% and the express delivery sector increasing by 1.63%. Business Volume Shentong and Jitu lead the way, with increasing differentiation. In terms of year-on-year growth rate of business volume, Shentong (including Dan Niao) tops the list with a 17.06% growth rate, and still maintains an 11.77% growth rate after excluding Dan Niao, continuing the trend of high growth; Jitu China reports a year-on-year growth of 10.62%, steadily increasing its share through its franchise network. Competitive Landscape Concentration is on the rise again, with Shentong's share increasing the fastest. The six listed express delivery companies collectively hold an 82.88% market share, up 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a continued increase in industry concentration. Shentong (including Dan Niao) has a market share of 14.54%, up by 1.59 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting significant growth and ongoing synergies with the Alibaba ecosystem; Yuantong stands at 16.40%, up by 0.40 percentage points year-on-year, reducing the gap with Zhongtong (19.92%, up by 0.42 percentage points); Shunfeng holds 7.79%, and Yunda 12.43%. Revenue Side Shentong and Zhongtong performed well. Revenue growth rates generally exceed business volume growth rates, suggesting improvements in pricing or product structure. Shentong's revenue has grown by 28.98% year-on-year, far exceeding the growth rate of business volume, reflecting a recovery in single-ticket revenue or an increase in high-value-added services; Zhongtong's revenue increased by 23.00% year-on-year, performing well on both volume and price fronts. Three Major Characteristics of the Express Delivery Industry in Q2 2026 First, the industry's growth rate is shifting downward, but resilience during peak seasons remains; second, the competitive landscape is shifting from "price wars" to a comprehensive competition of "market share + service", with Shentong leveraging the Alibaba ecosystem for a turnaround, Yuantong steadily approaching Zhongtong as the seating arrangement of the top players faces potential reshuffling; third, revenue growth generally outpaces business volume, leading to a easing of vicious price competition in the industry, with companies placing greater emphasis on operational quality. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the industry is entering the traditional transition between peak and off-peak seasons. Coupled with the regulatory body's ongoing attention to low-price competition, leading companies are expected to seek better solutions in balancing volume and price, with cost control capabilities and differentiated services becoming the keys to differentiation. Risk Analysis E-commerce express delivery demand growth is lower than expected; price wars in the express delivery industry are becoming more intense; labor costs rise beyond expectations.