The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose slightly to 206,000, and the pattern of "low recruitment, low layoffs" in the labor market remains unchanged.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that for the week ending August 29, the seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 206,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous weeks revised figure, slightly above economists' expectations of 205,000. Although this figure is a new high since the week ending August 15, initial claims have continued to hover between 189,000 and 230,000 this year, consistent with economists description of a labor market characterized by "slow hiring and slow layoffs." Meanwhile, for the week ending August 22, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits, an indicator of hiring willingness, rose by 8,000 to 1.779 million, below the market expectation of 1.795 million. The moderate rise in continuing claims suggests that the cycle for unemployed individuals to find new jobs has lengthened, but overall, it remains at historically low levels. The pattern of "slow hiring and few layoffs" in the U.S. job market remains unchanged. An independent report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that in August, U.S. companies announced layoffs of 52,881 workers, an increase of 58% from the previous month but a decline of 38% from the previous year, marking the lowest level for August since 2022. In the first eight months of this year, cumulative layoffs reached 529,914, down 41% compared to the same period in 2025. However, hiring has not kept pace. Although the announced hiring plans in the first eight months increased by 37% year-on-year, Challenger pointed out that "these positions do not seem to be being filled quickly." The Federal Reserve's Beige Book released on Wednesday also confirmed this assessment: employment saw a "slight" increase in August, with the demand for labor strongest in manufacturing, construction, and some service sectors, while demand in retail and hospitality declined. The report indicated a "very slight" overall growth in employment across the nation. Of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 3 reported moderate increases in employment, 4 reported slight increases, and 5 reported no change. The data collection for the report ended on August 24, and the Beige Book also pointed out that U.S. economic growth is increasingly reliant on a few projects like AI data centers, while inflationary pressures remain stubborn. Nonfarm data becomes a "key variable" for interest rate hikes, with the market highly focused on Friday's report. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh made it clear last week at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference that if policymakers do not gain sufficient confidence that inflation is falling to the 2% target level, the Federal Reserve will "have a lot of work to do." The CME FedWatch tool showed that the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has surged from about 34% before Walsh's speech to over 60%. The August nonfarm employment report set to be released on Friday will be a key variable in deciding on interest rate hikes. Market attention has shifted to the August nonfarm employment report to be released on Friday. Surveys indicate that economists expect nonfarm employment to increase by about 56,000 in August, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.1%. Nonfarm employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July, combined with a downward revision of 103,000 for May and June, indicating a significant cooling of the labor market. ADP data further reinforces the assessment of a moderate recovery in employment. Private sector employment increased by only 38,000 in August, below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest growth rate since January of this year. Among these, education and healthcare added 45,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, and professional and business services saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs. Bank of America analysts pointed out that nonfarm data is "unlikely to be the decisive factor for whether to raise rates in September," but a noticeably weak report may reduce the likelihood of a rate hike. Analysts expect that the rebound in August nonfarm employment will partially reflect the recovery of wages in local government education departments, but given the recent expiration of temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Haitians, which affects their work permits, the possibility of job declines for a second consecutive month cannot be ruled out. With no significant deterioration in the labor market, economists anticipate that the Federal Reserve may take action to raise interest rates as early as this month to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from import tariffs and the conflict in Iran.