Weak US investment demand and rising expectations of interest rate hikes are "pressing down" on Bitcoin, making it difficult to maintain the $80,000 threshold.

After surging about 25% in August, Bitcoin fell into a period of turbulence at the beginning of September. Although the market briefly broke through the psychological barrier of $80,000, persistent weak demand from U.S. investors, the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve rising to 66% in September, and a "supply ceiling" of 1.05 million Bitcoins held by long-term holders in the $83,000 to $86,000 range jointly formed a triple resistance that made it difficult for Bitcoin to stabilize above the $80,000 mark. As of September 3, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $77,800, having fallen about 2% over the past week. Multiple Headwinds August Recovery: $500 Billion Market Cap Returns, but U.S. Demand Is the Biggest "Hidden Threat" In August, Bitcoin rapidly climbed from around $63,500 to $80,000, driving the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies up by approximately $500 billion. In the same month, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached about $3.52 billion, a significant increase from only $172 million in July, marking the strongest single-month performance since October 2025. However, there were notable concerns regarding the inflow structure. Of the accumulated $3.05 billion inflows over nine days starting from August 17, about $2.3 billion was contributed by BlackRock's IBIT fund, accounting for a staggering 75.6%. Although the last week of August still recorded about $924.5 million in net inflows, single-day outflows began to appear. As we entered September, the sustainability of ETF fund inflows was under scrutiny. The continuous negative premium on Coinbase for over four months has become the most direct evidence of weak U.S. demand. This indicator measures the price difference between Coinbase and international platforms like Binance, with a persistent negative premium indicating that U.S. investors' buying strength is significantly weaker than that of other regions. Glassnode pointed out that in this round of price increases, the seven-day average daily inflow of ETFs was $290 million, but compared to previous bull markets, trading activity was relatively low, with fund inflows driven by policy news "often coinciding with local turning points." Macroeconomic Headwinds: Fed Rate Hike Probability Soars to 60%, Bitcoin Takes a Sharp Dive The hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh at Jackson Hole became the central catalyst for this round of Bitcoins rise and subsequent fall. Walsh emphasized that current financial conditions are not tight, and inflation must clearly align with the Fed's targets. CME FedWatch data indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September had soared from about 35% before the speech to 60%. The sudden spike in rate hike expectations directly suppressed risk assets. Bitcoin plunged from above $81,000 and briefly fell to around $76,000. Gate Research noted that all three major U.S. stock indices retreated over the past week, with Bitcoin falling about 2.14% to $77,336 in the same period. Macro factors, including rising oil prices and increasing U.S. Treasury yields, are continuing to disrupt risk assets. On-chain Resistance: The 1.05 Million BTC "Long-Term Holder Ceiling" Glassnode's on-chain data reveals the structural resistance Bitcoin faces on its upward trajectory. The report shows that in the $83,000 to $86,000 range, about 1.05 million Bitcoins are held by long-term holders who have not sold them through the complete decline cycle. Glassnode describes this range as "heavy structure," almost entirely formed by supplies from long-term holders (wallets that have not sold for over six months). Reaching $83,000 will test whether these holders will sell at the breakeven point. Additionally, there are multiple liquidity structures between $81,000 and $86,000, including exchange sell orders. This means that even if Bitcoin breaks through $80,000, the range between $83,000 and $86,000 will face severe tests of actual demand. Divergent Institutional Perspectives: TD Cowen Lowers Year-End Expectations, Bulls Still Aim for $150,000 The market shows a clear division in institutional behavior. On one hand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of cooling demand after experiencing strong inflows during the summer. On the other hand, Strategy continues to buy in the same price range above $80,000 since May 14, despite the market facing resistance, serving as a key force against retail pressure and short-term profit-taking. TD Cowen revised its year-end Bitcoin price target down from approximately $140,000 to $97,500, based on the assumption that it is currently trading around $78,000 and still has about 25% upside potential by year-end. The bullish camp is more optimistic. Fundstrats Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000, supported by the fact that it is digesting approximately 24% growth in August. Analyst Didier points out that Bitcoin re-emerging above the 200-day moving average is the clearest bullish technical indicator, marking the onset of a bullish market. CryptoQuant's bull market score has risen to the most optimistic level since October 2025, with a model price target pointing to $81,319 by September 29. However, CryptoQuant also warns that Binance's Bitcoin reserves are rising while exchange stablecoin reserves are shrinking, indicating that the market is in a distribution phase rather than an accumulation phase. The options market also reflects the conflicting psychology of investors. Put options are mainly concentrated in the defense range of $68,000 to $75,000, while the largest open interest for call options piles up at the $80,000 level. The options expiration date of September 25 involves about $14 billion in open contracts, which could become a significant source of volatility and position pressure in the coming weeks. IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore notes that this price surge has largely been driven by short covering rather than new long positions. If prices fall back to the mid-70,000s, buyers may provide support around the 200-day moving average (at $69,507). Nansen analysts warn that weak spot liquidity, divergent whale positions, and ETF fund outflows have yet to confirm a new bull market. Technical Analysis: Consolidation Above the 200-Day Moving Average, Bull-Bear Battle Intensifies From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's current trading price is about $8,100 above the 200-day simple moving average and over $9,400 above the 50-day moving average. Major moving averages remain upward, supporting the overall recovery structure. However, the RSI has retreated from its high to 66.7, and momentum has temporarily stalled. Key support is around $69,600, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and closely overlaps with the 200-day moving average of approximately $69,550. Sycamore points out that if prices fall back to the mid-70s, buyers will provide strong support near the 200-day moving average ($69,507).