Goldman Sachs: Aluminum, gold, and copper companies generally fell short of expectations in their mid-term performances, while lithium companies benefited from the rebound in lithium prices. Upgraded Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772) rating to "Neutral."

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that it has analyzed the performance of 19 stocks related to aluminum, copper, gold, lithium, and other electric vehicle-related metals in the first half of 2026. Among them, the performance of companies in copper, aluminum, and gold generally fell short of expectations, while lithium companies showed mixed results. In terms of individual stocks, the firm upgraded the rating of Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772) from "Sell" to "Neutral," with the target price adjusted down from HKD 60 to HKD 46; it maintained a "Sell" rating for Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696), reducing the target price from HKD 48 to HKD 33. Goldman Sachs pointed out that high aluminum prices are driving profit margins for aluminum companies; copper companies benefit from rising copper prices, although inflation in costs partially offsets the benefits; most lithium companies have turned from losses to profits due to the rebound in lithium prices; however, rising sulfur prices and declining MHP production have dragged down the profitability of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) and GEM Co., Ltd. (002340.SZ). The firm expects that as new supplies from China and overseas increase, aluminum prices and spreads on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will soften, leading to a 12% downward adjustment in aluminum company profit forecasts for 2027 to a range of 12% to 19%. In the second half of 2026, copper prices may remain high due to continued tight supplies of scrap and ongoing stockpiling in the U.S. Regarding lithium, Goldman Sachs predicts that lithium prices will correct in the second half of 2026, with the price per ton of lithium carbonate equivalent expected to further decline to between USD 10,300 and USD 16,000 in 2027 and 2028. The global lithium market is expected to shift from a current shortage to an oversupply. Therefore, the firm raised its profit forecasts for most lithium stocks in 2026 by 11% to 30%, with 2027 forecasts remaining largely unchanged. For other individual stocks, the firm maintains "Buy" ratings for Zijin Mining Group (02899), CMOC Group Limited (03993), Jiangxi Copper (00358), and MMG (01208), while keeping a "Sell" rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (02600). In terms of target prices, the price for Aluminum Corporation of China is reduced from HKD 7.5 to HKD 6.8; Jiangxi Copper is raised from HKD 45 to HKD 50; MMG and CMOC Group Limited are lowered from HKD 14 and HKD 25 to HKD 12.5 and HKD 23.5 respectively; Zijin Mining Group remains unchanged at HKD 51.