Guotai Haitong: Precious metal prices have broken through, and we are optimistic about the upward valuation of gold, copper, and aluminum sectors.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the long-term logic for precious metals is solid, and the timing for long-term positioning has arrived. The resource competition has strengthened the strategic value of copper; while short-term copper price movements are affected, it is expected that the medium-term bullish logic will not change. In terms of mid to long-term outlook, the bank continues to view rare earths as a key strategic resource with investment value. The tightening supply combined with global order restructuring is expected to sustain recovery in the tungsten sector. In a scenario of tight supply and demand balance, the supply-demand balance sheet is important, but greater attention should be paid to the macro factors influencing metal price trends. Monetary policy, macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical competition, and supply disruptions will become critical determinants. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Precious Metals: Prices Break Through, Continue Positioning in the Precious Metals Sector U.S. non-farm payrolls dropped by 23,000 in July, with the decline exceeding expectations, leading to a drop in market pricing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year. The U.S. Treasury has increased its buybacks of government bonds to lower long-term interest rates, but with little effect, market concerns about U.S. debt have intensified, prompting a breakthrough in precious metal prices. Although there has been geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, the correlation has decreased, and it is expected that precious metal prices will continue to rise. The long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the timing for long-term positioning is here. Recommended stocks: Shanjin International Gold, Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shengda Resources; related stocks: ZHAOJIN MINING. Copper: Tariff Catalyst, Resource Competition Strengthens Strategic Value of Copper As expectations for U.S. copper tariffs approach, global resource competition may intensify, and the supply constraints remain strong. Meanwhile, persistently high U.S. deficits and debt expansion continue to undermine the credibility of the dollar, leading to a re-evaluation of resource value. The Jackson Hole meeting next week will be an important macro observation window; the Federal Reserve's policy statements may influence short-term copper price movements through the dollar and U.S. bond rates, but it is expected that medium-term bullish logic will not change. Recommended stocks: Western Mining, Zijin Mining Group. Aluminum: Domestic De-inventory Supports Prices, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate On the macro front, U.S.-Iran talks are stalled, with geopolitical risk premiums still present. In terms of demand, major aluminum processing companies saw a slight increase in operating rates by 0.1 percentage points to 60.0%. On the inventory side, SMM reports that domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 875,000 tons, with a weekly decrease of 23,000 tons. Recommended stocks: Yunnan Aluminium, Tianshan Aluminum Group, CHINAHONGQIAO, Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power; related stocks: Aluminum Corporation Of China, CHUANGXIN IND. Tin: Supply Disruptions Continue to Support Prices Silver Mountain Mining's production halt remains unresolved, and the Wa State's resumption of production remains constrained, leading to a continued tight supply situation at the mine level; demand maintains seasonal weaknesses, and domestic social inventory has increased continuously during the week, but LME inventory remains at historical lows, providing support for tin prices. On the stock front, pay attention to resource-type stocks with quality tin reserves and growth potential in future production. Recommended stocks: Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd., Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal. Energy Metals: Tight Supply-Demand Pattern Remains, Realistic Factors Continue to Drive Prices Up Lithium Carbonate: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and inventory continued to decrease, with total inventory not being high. The prospects for resumption of large mines in Jiangxi remain unclear, while the shipments of concentrate from Zimbabwe are gradually arriving at the port, with the supply increment already reflected in the prices. On the demand side, production scheduling continues to increase month-on-month; as inventory decreases significantly, strong real trading starts, while weak long-term demand expectations become a secondary logic. Excessive pessimism about demand may lower expectations for supply increments. Recommended stocks: Chengxin Lithium Group, Zangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium Group, Tianqi Lithium Corporation. Nickel Sector: Refined nickel inventory has decreased, and the outlook for Indonesia's second batch of nickel mine quotas remains unclear, with nickel supply and demand balanced loosely, leading to expectations for a gradual increase in nickel prices. Recommended stocks: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt; related stocks: GEM Co., Ltd. Rare Earths: Prices Fluctuate Upward In the short term, with the seasonal switch, downstream restocking demand is expected to warm up, and prices are expected to rise. In the mid to long-term outlook, the bank continues to see investment value in rare earths as a key strategic resource. Recommended stocks: China Rare Earth Nonferrous Metals, Jl Mag Rare-Earth. Strategic Minor Metals: Strategic Value Becomes Prominent Tungsten: The tightening of supply combined with global order restructuring is expected to continue the recovery of the tungsten sector. Recently, some small tungsten mines have reduced production; coupled with low inventories at the mine level, tungsten concentrate prices have started to rise again. Additionally, as the peak season approaches in September-October, downstream restocking demand is expected to improve. On the export side, restricted impacts are accelerating the transition towards high-value-added deep processing products, and continued price increases for overseas tools alongside limited supplies of high-end tungsten materials from Japan are expected to encourage orders to shift domestically. On the stock side, continue to focus on the "resources + deep processing + domestic substitution" direction. Recommended stocks: China Tungsten and Hightech Materials, Xiamen Tungsten; related stocks: JIAXIN INTL RES. Uranium: The price of natural uranium long-term contracts was $95.5 per pound in July, remaining flat from the previous month. Rigid supply along with nuclear power development creates a persistent supply-demand gap for uranium, and prices are expected to continue rising. Recommended stocks: China National Uranium; related stocks: CGN MINING. Tantalum: Supply-demand mismatch supports tantalum prices. Global tantalum supplies are tight, and the growth of emerging industries such as AI is driving end-demand. The bank anticipates tantalum prices to remain elevated. Attention is recommended for leading companies' capacity expansion. Recommended stocks: Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry; related stocks: XIMEI RESOURCES. Risk Warning: Weak downstream demand, large releases from the supply side, and Federal Reserve rate cuts not meeting expectations.