Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Positive Signals from Bank Semi-Annual Reports, Absolute Return Space Expected to Continue

Yesterday, the market underwent fluctuating adjustments throughout the day, with the declines of the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 narrowing towards the close. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.01 trillion yuan. From the sector perspective, gold, coal, agriculture, and shipping sectors were active against the trend. On the downside, computing power hardware stocks weakened significantly. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.13%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.21%. CITIC SEC believes that the signals from bank interim reports are positive, and the absolute return potential is expected to continue; Galaxy Securities believes that the interim reports exceed expectations and strengthen incentive guidance, with long-term high demand for optical modules; Huatai notes that the effects of Bessents intervention in the bond market are unclear and the consequences are concerning. CITIC SEC: The signals from bank interim reports are positive, and the absolute return potential is expected to continue. Last week marked the beginning of the bank earnings season. The operating patterns of listed banks remain stable, with interest spreads and asset quality stabilizing, and profitability recovering slightly. More banks are expected to publish their results this week, with overall performance anticipated to meet expectations. From an investment perspective, last week the banking sector achieved both relative and absolute returns, outperforming most industries; looking ahead to the third quarter, it is expected that core variables such as interest spreads and asset quality will remain stable, and the trend of profit recovery for the year is positive. Coupled with macro narratives and long-term logic that continue to unfold, the absolute returns for the year are still expected to persist. Galaxy Securities: Interim reports exceed expectations and strengthen incentive guidance, with long-term high demand for optical modules. Cloud giants continue to ramp up capital expenditures, providing long-term rigid support for computing infrastructure demand, resulting in full orders for optical module manufacturers and structural optimization: the high growth potential of optical communications is not a short-term impulse, but is built upon continued and increased capital expenditures from overseas cloud giants. The industry is expected to maintain a tight balance of supply and demand. Driven by robust downstream demand, orders in the optical module industry are highly defined, and the delivery capacity of high-end optical modules has become a core scarce resource. As the demand for bandwidth in AI clusters grows and speeds increase further, this may accelerate the optical-fiber ahead, copper-fiber behind process, with the evolution of optical interfaces towards NPO and CPO, and the gradual introduction of high-margin new products may continue to drive the upward shift in the industry chain's profit center. Huatai: The effects of Bessents intervention in the bond market are unclear, and the consequences are concerning. This article comprehensively analyzes a series of recent operations by the U.S. macroeconomic control department (including the aforementioned two "unconventional" operations by the U.S. Treasury) and discusses the implications of this intervention on U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, dollar-denominated assets, and macro asset allocation in light of questioning of the credibility during the leadership transition verification period at the Federal Reserve, the contradictions in the underlying logic of recent fiscal and monetary policy operations, and the potential risks of "coordination failure" between the two departments. If U.S. fiscal and monetary policies cannot quickly reshape policy credibility and establish effective internal and external communication, the intrinsic value of dollar assets, especially the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, may further be eroded, and the volatility in the bond market may rise. This article was reproduced from "Cailian Press," with editing by Liu Jiayin.