The main oilfields reaching their peak can't overshadow the ambition for increased production! Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) diversifies and expands to avert crisis, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $177.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) has recently warned Kazakhstan that the Tengiz oil field, the largest oil field in this Central Asian country, will peak in production next year. Worse still, production from this oil field will begin to decline thereafter. Exxon Mobil Corporation expects production to drop nearly 40% by 2035, to about 500,000 barrels per day. This is also significant for Chevron Corporation, as it holds a 50% stake in the TengizChevron Corporation (TCO) joint venture, which is involved in the development of this oil field. However, despite the imminent peak and decline of the Tengiz oil field, this is not a crisis for Exxon Mobil Corporation. Kazakhstan still has a "backbone" Although production at the Tengiz oil field is about to peak and start declining, Exxon Mobil Corporation has another opportunity in Kazakhstan: the Kashagan oil field. This giant offshore oil field in the Caspian Sea is operated by a joint venture that includes Exxon Mobil Corporation, Shell, TotalEnergies, and others. Exxon Mobil Corporation believes there is a joint investment potential of up to $80 billion for the development of the western region of this oil field. The expansion plan could yield up to 600,000 barrels per day. However, this oil field is at the center of a long-standing dispute between Kazakhstan and the operating joint venture. Kazakhstan has imposed a $5 billion environmental fine, which the operators have yet to pay. Additionally, the Kazakhstan government has stated that the joint venture partners should compensate it $150 billion for revenue losses due to development delays; this claim is currently awaiting international arbitration. Before resolving disputes with the government, Exxon Mobil Corporation and its partners will not invest the capital needed to boost production at this oil field. Exxon Mobil Corporation has ample growth opportunities in other regions The Kashagan oil field is far from Exxon Mobil Corporation's only potential growth driver. The oil giant is currently investing $100 billion in major capital projects from 2023 to 2030. These investments are expected to increase its oil and gas production from 4.7 million barrels last year to 5.5 million barrels by 2035. Key growth drivers include Guyana, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and the Permian Basin. The company anticipates that by 2030, production from the Permian Basin will double to about 2.5 million barrels per day. Recently, the company signed a 20-year, fee-based integrated midstream agreement with Targa Resources (TRGP.US) to support its growth in the Permian Basin over the coming years. Targa will build three new natural gas processing plants to support Exxon Mobil Corporation's development in the region and is evaluating the construction of five additional plants. Furthermore, the company is constructing a new 70-mile gas pipeline to support the increase in production at Exxon Mobil Corporation. Targa plans to have these new infrastructures operational by the first half of 2028. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil Corporation has recently awarded an $1.1 billion pre-investment equipment contract for the Mozambique Rovuma LNG project. The company is expected to make a final investment decision (FID) this year regarding this potential $30 billion project. Exxon Mobil Corporation may also approve an LNG project in Papua New Guinea by the end of this year. These projects will drive growth beyond 2030. Exxon Mobil Corporation's growth engines are far from "shutting down" Even though production from a major oil field under Exxon Mobil Corporation is about to peak and begin declining, this is not a crisis for the oil giant. In Kazakhstan, it still has another significant potential project brewing. In addition, the company has clear growth visibility in the Permian Basin, two LNG projects in progress, and numerous other opportunities globally. Although both the Kashagan and Rovuma projects come with risks (the latter having been delayed since 2021 due to regional violence), Exxon Mobil Corporation's diversified growth pipeline helps mitigate these risks. Exxon Mobil Corporation has multiple long-term growth drivers, making it one of the most attractive oil stocks for Beijing Zhidemai Technology. Wall Street is optimistic about upstream assets Morgan Stanley recently raised its target price to $177 and reiterated its "buy" rating. The firm believes that Exxon Mobil Corporation's "value takes precedence over production" strategy is paying offcapital expenditures are disciplined within the $27-29 billion range for 2026, with funding focused on the Permian Basin, Guyana, and global LNG projects, and the proportion of capacity with unit costs below $35 per barrel will continue to increase. Additionally, Barclays, Wells Fargo, and TD Cowen maintain a high target price range of $170-$182, with core arguments: the Golden Pass LNG Train 1 has produced its first LNG in March 2026, with US export capacity increasing about 15% compared to 2025; the Permian Basin production target for 2026 is 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, proprietary fracturing technology improves recovery rates; the Guyana Uaru project is expected to be operational by the end of 2026, with low-cost deepwater assets ramping up production; the company plans to return value to shareholders through $20 billion in stock buybacks and continuous dividend increases over 43 years by 2026.