Caitong: The resilience of home appliance exports continues, with structural differentiation and marginal improvements coexisting.

Caitong released a research report stating that, overall, the export resilience of home appliances remains strong despite the high base effect, and the firm maintains a market perform rating for the home appliance sector. Currently, the export DRIVE of the home appliance industry is transitioning in an orderly manner from traditional major products to diverse emerging categories, with sub-sectors such as electric two-wheelers and lawn mowers continuing to show high demand. The narrowing decline in air conditioning and the surge in demand from South America have released positive structural signals, while the trend of the narrowing decline in the air conditioning category can be used as an indicator for monitoring future demand. Caitongs main points are as follows: The overall home appliance market maintains steady growth, with a month-on-month decline in July. From January to July 2026, the cumulative export value of home appliances in the country reached 49.22 billion USD, maintaining a relatively high cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%, which fully demonstrates that despite the pressure of last year's high base effect, the export market still shows strong resilience and growth elasticity. However, from the monthly dynamics in July, the export value was 6.713 billion USD, a month-on-month decline of 7.07%. The month's data decline is primarily due to a combination of factors, including short-term inventory adjustments following concentrated replenishment in overseas markets and the seasonal patterns of the home appliance exports, indicating that the sustainability of future exports still needs further tracking and observation. The characteristics of category differentiation continue, with traditional large items showing marginal improvement. From January to July, the export performance of various major categories shows significant differences. 1) Categories with leading growth rates: Electric two-wheelers remain the fastest-growing category, with cumulative exports of 5.48 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 36.0%; lawn mowers and color TVs saw cumulative year-on-year growth of 11.7% and 11.3%, respectively, showing good performance. 2) Categories with steady growth: The cumulative export values of refrigerators and washing machines were 5.23 billion USD and 3.40 billion USD, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.4% and 11.1%, keeping the demand base steady. 3) Pressured categories and changes: The cumulative export value of air conditioners was 10.53 billion USD, a year-on-year decline of 9.3%. Although it still shows negative growth, the decline has narrowed from -11.1% in the first half of the year, which is a marginal change worth noting. Vacuum cleaners had cumulative exports of 3.01 billion USD, a year-on-year decline of 17.6%, continuing to show relative pressure. Europe maintains steady growth, and South America shows an upward trend against the month-on-month decline. The export patterns among continents show significant structural differences. 1) Europe: From January to July 2026, the cumulative export value was 16.32 billion USD, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 21.5%, the largest volume among the major continents and leading in growth rate. 2) Asia: Cumulative exports were 15.79 billion USD, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, remaining the only region among all continents with a year-on-year decline. The decline has modestly narrowed from -5.5% in the first half of the year; however, the month of July saw a significant month-on-month decline of 14.87%, indicating considerable volatility, and no clear improvement can be observed in the regional market. 3) South America: Cumulative exports reached 4.02 billion USD, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.8% (slightly accelerating compared to the previous period). Notably, South America experienced a month-on-month growth of 2.75% in July, showing relatively significant performance in stages. 4) North America, Oceania, and Africa saw cumulative year-on-year growth of 7.3%, 16.4%, and 17.9%, respectively, maintaining overall steady growth. Risk warning: Risks of raw material price fluctuations, exchange rate fluctuations, demand falling short of expectations, intensifying market competition, and tariff disruptions.