Northeast: Threefold Logistical Resonance Marks a Long-Cycle Turning Point for the Titanium Dioxide Industry

Dongxing released a research report stating that global demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) is steadily growing, with the chloride process being the mainstream method for high-end titanium dioxide abroad. Rising sulfuric acid prices, along with a tight supply situation, are expected to persist until the large-scale production of phosphogypsum for acid generation begins (expected by the end of 2027). The African national resource nationalism is driving the supply chain towards localized processing, intensifying mid-term expectations for tight supplies. The bank is optimistic about titanium dioxide products that utilize both chloride and sulfate processes. The main viewpoints from Northeast are as follows: Global demand for titanium dioxide is steadily increasing, with the chloride process dominating overseas, while the sulfate process prevails domestically. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is currently the most optimal white pigment globally in terms of comprehensive performance, widely used in coatings, plastics, papermaking, inks, rubber, chemical fibers, cosmetics, and new energy sectors. According to the TZMI report, global apparent consumption of titanium dioxide is expected to be around 7.63 million tons by 2025, with a projected CAGR of approximately +2.4% from 2026 to 2030. Titanium dioxide production is divided into two main processes: sulfate and chloride. The sulfate process uses titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid as raw materials, is relatively mature, and has lower requirements for titanium ore raw materials; the chloride process, on the other hand, utilizes high-grade titanium slag and chlorine gas as raw materials, featuring continuous production with higher product purity, better whiteness, and uniform particle size, making it the mainstream process for high-end titanium dioxide abroad. Logic One: Since 2025, soaring sulfur and sulfuric acid prices have highlighted the profitability advantages of the chloride process. Since 2025, Russian refineries have been attacked by Ukraine, and from March 2026 onward, Middle Eastern refineries have been damaged due to the US-Iran conflict, leading to intermittent shipping blockages in the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, in the past two years, the concentration of new nickel hydrometallurgy projects in Indonesia has coincided with the rigid demand for phosphate fertilizers during the busy spring farming season in 2026, resulting in a dramatic increase in sulfur prices, which soared to 11,600 yuan per ton. As a result, sulfuric acid prices have risen; according to Baichuan, the average price of smelting acid increased from 266 yuan per ton in 2024 to 1,610 yuan per ton in early August 2026, causing a cost increase of approximately 5,373 yuan per ton. The tight sulfuric acid situation is expected to continue until large-scale production of phosphogypsum for acid generation begins (expected by the end of 2027). Chloride process titanium dioxide avoids fluctuations in sulfuric acid prices at the raw material end, and products enjoy a premium of 1,000-2,000 yuan per ton compared to sulfate process products, revealing profitability advantages. Currently, domestic total capacity is approximately 1.12 million tons, including 660,000 tons from LB Group Co., Ltd., 120,000 tons from Shan Dong Lu Bei Chemical, and 100,000 tons from Yibin Tianyuan Group. Overseas capacity mainly includes 1.1 million tons/year from Chemours, 850,000 tons/year from Tronox, and 517,000 tons/year from Cristal. Logic Two: Anti-dumping measures against Chinese titanium dioxide by overseas markets cannot change the trend of production capacity withdrawal by established giants. From 2023 to 2025, multiple countries and regions, including the European Union and Brazil, initiated anti-dumping investigations against Chinese titanium dioxide, most of which will implement final rulings by 2025. According to customs statistics, titanium dioxide exports in 2025 reached 1.8169 million tons, a decrease of 4.46% compared to the same period last year. Domestic companies are intensifying efforts to explore markets without anti-dumping tariffs. As a leading enterprise, LB Group Co., Ltd. is accelerating its overseas expansion through acquisitions and building overseas capacity. In the first half of 2026, China's titanium dioxide exports reached 1.0684 million tons, an increase of 17% year-on-year, excluding a 10% year-on-year growth in the Indian market (anti-dumping tariffs were temporarily suspended in India in the first half of 2026). Established international giants such as Tronox, Chemours, and Cristal have sequentially shut down or sold production lines since 2023, with Chemours and Tronox facing ongoing pressure in their operations in the first half of 2026, reporting net losses of $303 million and $274 million, respectively. Logic Three: Multiple African nations are tightening raw mineral export policies, leading to a restructuring of the titanium concentrate supply chain. African national resource nationalism is driving the transformation of the supply chain towards localized processing, intensifying mid-term expectations for tight supply. In May 2026, Mozambique passed a new Mining Law prohibiting raw ore exports and requiring domestic processing, while Tanzania has long enforced strict regulations. Currently, titanium concentrate prices have weakened due to disturbances from some manufacturers' liquidations, with Baichuan reporting an average price of 1,230 yuan per ton in early August 2026, which has fallen to early 2020 levels. In the mid-term, global titanium dioxide demand is expected to maintain a growth rate of +2.4%, correlating to an annual demand of at least about 400,000 tons of new titanium concentrate (calculated at 47% grade). Optimistic outlook for titanium dioxide products that utilize both chloride and sulfate processes. (1) LB Group Co., Ltd.: With access to high-quality titanium ore in Panzhihua, after integrating two mines next year, the titanium concentrate capacity will reach 2.48 million tons/year, comprising 660,000 tons from chloride process and 850,000 tons from sulfate process, along with 150,000 tons chloride process capacity in the UK and 200,000 tons/year post-processing capacity in Malaysia expected to ramp up by 2027; (2) Shan Dong Lu Bei Chemical: possesses chloride process capacity of 120,000 tons and sulfate process capacity of 200,000 tons, while a 600,000-ton zircon-titanium concentrate separation project is about to be completed. Upon production, it is expected to yield approximately 360,000 tons of titanium concentrate, 40,000 tons of zircon sand, and 13,000 tons of rutile annually. Risk Warnings: Risks of product price fluctuations, risks of downstream demand falling short of expectations, intensifying industry competition.