Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Demand Peak Combined with Supply Structure Optimization, Valuation Repair in the Coal Sector is Expected (Including Concept Stocks)

As high temperatures continue to drive up electricity demand, the national electricity load has repeatedly reached peak levels. At the same time, the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry" clearly states that coal consumption will peak, with supply concentrating on five major bases, indicating a clear trend toward structural optimization. Coal prices are strongly supported at high levels. Founder notes that coking coal prices show resilience, with high-quality coking coal companies benefiting from the persistence of high prices under rigid supply. Data shows that nationwide temperatures have consistently risen this month, with electricity load reaching 1.557 billion kilowatts on August 7, marking the fourth new high this year, which is 49 million kilowatts higher than last year's peak, primarily driven by high temperatures. The China Electricity Council predicts that the median of the nationwide coordinated maximum load will reach 1.6 billion kilowatts in 2026, an increase of approximately 6.1% year-on-year. Under high temperatures, coal consumption at terminals remains at a seasonally high level, with power plants in eight coastal provinces and seventeen inland provinces showing positive year-on-year growth in daily coal consumption, indicating continued support for thermal coal demand. This week, thermal coal prices continued to rise, with the Qinhuangdao port Q5500 closing price up 1.3% week-on-week to 860 yuan per ton. Pithead coal prices were also raised, maintaining an upward trend in both price and volume. The impact of demand is gradually extending to imported coal, leading to synchronized price increases. From August 10 to 16, the price of Russian, Canadian, and Australian main coking coal at the Beijing-Tangshan port increased by 60-70 yuan per ton week-on-week and by 130-330 yuan per ton year-on-year; prices for Mongolian coking coal and coking concentrate at the Ganqimaodu port rose by 100-175 yuan per ton week-on-week and 255-295 yuan per ton year-on-year. In the short term, high temperatures will continue across the country in late August, and downstream power plants are expected to maintain high daily consumption, further depleting inventories at all levels of the industry chain. After September, while seasonal demand may decline, restocking demand is likely to gradually start, providing support for high coal prices. On the supply side, there are also structural benefits. The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry" has been released, proposing that by 2030, the proportion of high-quality advanced capacity and intelligent coal mines will be further increased, with coal consumption peaking, reinforcing medium- and long-term supply constraints and high-quality development orientation. The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry" was recently published. Debon Securities pointed out that the plan further enhances the strategic position of coal in energy supply security, promotes large-scale advancement of capacity, and integrates artificial intelligence into coal mining construction, which is expected to stabilize the industry supply structure, reduce cyclical fluctuations, and further enhance companies' ability to provide stable dividends. At the same time, national safety production supervision remains under high pressure, with coal mine safety inspections still at a high intensity, and production halts continue to constrain output. Last week, Shanxi's production halts reached 55.9 million tons, and parts of major producing areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are also undergoing concentrated rectification, keeping capacity utilization low. With tight supply compounded by high temperatures driving coastal daily consumption to high levels, inventories at all stages continue to decline. Stocks at ports in the Bohai Sea region and coastal power plants continue to decrease, and the rapid decline in inventory has also become an important factor driving this round of coal price increases, maintaining a continued tight run in the coal market. Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the focus of coal has shifted to the quality of supply and construction of resilience in supply security. On the demand side, coal consumption is set to peak, with a high platform soft landing, rejecting steep cuts in coal consumption, and the demand base showing resilience. The long- and medium-term outlook is positive for coal prices, maintaining a reasonable upper range, which will increase the certainty of profits for coal companies. Zheshang notes that considering current sector funding and fundamentals, there is a medium- to long-term bullish outlook on coal valuation recovery. After the previous pessimistic positioning has been sufficiently cleared, the three core concerns of excess capacity, high-carbon impairment, and safety incidents have all been offset by policy interventions, resulting in limited downside space for the sector. With multiple catalysts, there is a basis for sustained upward movement. Relevant Concept Stocks China Shenhua Energy (01088): The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the first half of 2026 to be between 26.3 billion and 29.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%-21.1%. The performance change is primarily due to the increase in coal chemical business volumes and shipments through its own railways, ports, and shipping operations, which boosted profits in related businesses year-on-year. Yankuang Energy Group (01171): The company anticipates achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of approximately 7.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2026, an increase of approximately 2.5 billion yuan or 53% compared to the same period last year; it expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of around 4.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2026 after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, which represents an increase of approximately 0.1 billion yuan or 2% compared to the same period last year. China Coal Energy (01898): The company's main business encompasses coal production and trade, coal chemical industry, coal mining equipment manufacturing, pithead power generation, financial services, and related services. Its primary products include thermal coal, coking coal, polyolefins, urea, and methanol. The company's competitive advantage in coal production, washing, and blending technologies is industry-leading, and its production costs are lower than most coal enterprises in the country.