The diplomatic deadlock between the U.S. and Iran deepens! Trump claims there are no negotiations between the two sides, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly stagnant.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States is not currently engaged in any negotiations with Iran and has no plans to initiate a new round of talks, which marks a significant shift from his previous assertions that the U.S. and Iran were in contact. Meanwhile, Trump continued to claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open and that all mines in the area have been cleared, although local shipping remains nearly stagnant and tensions between the U.S. and Iran have intensified. On that day, Trump wrote on social media, "There are currently no negotiations or dialogue with Iran, nor are any such talks scheduled." This statement starkly contrasts with his remarks two weeks prior, when he accused Iran of being "inconsistent" in denying that talks were taking place. Iranian officials have consistently maintained that there are no formal negotiations with the U.S. at this time. Trump also indicated that the maritime blockade against Iranian ports remains fully effective and declared, "The Strait of Hormuz is open and functioning normally, and all mines have been cleared or detonated." However, U.S. Central Command has not confirmed that demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz have been completed and, when asked about the situation, only directed the media to inquire at the White House. In reality, commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to face severe disruptions. Prior to the outbreak of war, about 20% of global oil trade passed through this critical waterway, but shipping traffic has drastically declined in recent months and has recently slowed even further. On Sunday, only three vessels transited the Strait, while before the conflict began, approximately 130 vessels crossed daily. Shipping safety risks also persist. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office stated on Tuesday that a cargo ship was attacked by an unidentified flying object while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in damage to the vessel and casualties among the crew, with the remaining crew members receiving assistance from the Oman Coast Guard. At the same time, new signs of escalating military tensions in the Middle East have emerged. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ministry of Defense reported that its air defense systems detected two ballistic missiles launched from the direction of Iran towards the UAE. One missile fell outside UAE territory, while the other landed within its territorial waters. As the diplomatic outlook between the U.S. and Iran further deteriorates, international oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday. The market is concerned that if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be impeded, the risks to global energy supplies may worsen. On Monday, Trump explicitly ruled out extending the previously agreed-upon 60-day temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. This agreement expired on Monday, while both sides have effectively resumed military actions. Trump stated that Iran is unwilling to accept the conditions that the U.S. believes are necessary to end the war, so he has no intention of extending the temporary ceasefire. Notably, as U.S.-Iran diplomacy is at an impasse, Trump has recently suggested the idea of U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, he stated at the White House that the U.S. has "controlled" the waterway through maritime blockade; on Tuesday, he shared on social media an image labeling the Strait of Hormuz as "U.S. territory." However, it is still unclear whether this statement represents an official U.S. policy, and the White House has not provided any further clarification. Iran and Oman are still in contact regarding the resumption of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated over the weekend that negotiations with Oman are ongoing, and both parties are discussing the establishment of new maritime passage routes. However, Trump previously warned that if Oman obstructs U.S. operations in the area, the U.S. might take strong military measures. Marc Sievers, who served as the U.S. Ambassador to Oman from 2016 to 2019, believes that U.S.-Iran peace negotiations have effectively come to a standstill, and Trump's recent tough rhetoric regarding Oman reflects growing dissatisfaction within the White House regarding the current situation. He predicts that in the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, the U.S. and Iran may enter a longer-term standoff. The Eurasia Group has also pushed back its expectations for de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran situation. The organization no longer anticipates that the two sides will reach a peace agreement before September, instead pushing the potential timeframe for easing tensions to the end of the year, concluding that the most likely outcome is a limited agreement that allows for a partial restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The organization noted that since Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have circumvented the Strait of Hormuz through alternative transportation routes, international oil prices have not surpassed $100 per barrel, and the global economy is gradually adapting to the situation of blockage in the Strait, which has reduced the urgency for the U.S. to immediately push for a full restoration of shipping. However, as long as U.S.-Iran relations remain in a state of ongoing confrontation, even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is partially restored, it may still be limited, and new military conflicts could disrupt global energy transportation at any time.