Debang Securities: The inflection point for solid-state battery mass production is approaching, and emerging scenarios such as embodied intelligence may accelerate commercialization.

Debon Securities released a research report stating that the industrialization turning point for solid-state batteries is approaching and recommended prioritizing investments in high-certainty upstream sectors: Firstly, on the equipment side, focus on dry process electrodes, isostatic pressing equipment, and other segments where value significantly increases; secondly, on the materials side, concentrate on core incremental materials such as sulfide electrolytes and silicon-based anodes. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to pay attention to leading battery integrators with core technology reserves and deep ties to major automotive companies. Debon Securities' main points are as follows: Industry Development: A Resonance of Policy and Capital Driving Dual Forces, 2027 Could Be a Key Milestone Against the backdrop of global low-carbon energy transformation, traditional liquid lithium batteries are gradually approaching theoretical limits in energy density and safety. Solid-state batteries boast multiple advantages, including high safety, outstanding energy density, a wide temperature adaptation range, and longer cycle life, making them a promising core route for the next generation of energy storage technology upgrades. 1) On the policy side, a complete support system has been formed from top to bottom. Since 2025, intensive top-level designs have been implemented, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology listing solid-state batteries as a key direction for breakthroughs. The National Energy Administration has clearly prioritized breakthroughs in critical equipment for long lifespan and wide temperature range. The Ministry of Finance has introduced differentiated consumption tax policies, exempting solid-state batteries from consumption tax from September 2026 to the end of 2028, significantly boosting industrialization through tax incentives. Meanwhile, various provinces and cities are actively responding and implementing local industrial policies, with special plans rolled out in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhuhai, and other areas, supported by funds and research platforms to tackle core technologies in solid-state batteries. 2) On the capital side, the enthusiasm for industrial investment and financing continues to rise. In just the first half of 2026, over 40 investment projects have emerged in the solid-state battery field, with multiple industrial funds being established, covering areas from key material research and development to full industry chain mergers and acquisitions, providing ample capital support for technological engineering and industrial upgrades. 3) A consensus has emerged within the industry regarding mass production rhythms, with a clear path established transitioning from semi-solid to fully solid-state batteries. The industry generally expects semi-solid batteries to first enter the commercialization cycle in 2026, and by 2027, several leading companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology, BYD Company Limited, and Gotion High-tech plan to achieve small-scale mass production or demonstration vehicle installations of fully solid-state batteries, significantly accelerating the pace of industrialization. Technological Path: Three Major Technological Routes in Competition, Sulfides Expected to Become the Long-Term Core Line The technological routes for solid-state batteries are mainly divided into sulfides, oxides, and polymers. The oxide route has become the preferred solution during the transition period to semi-solid batteries due to its high mechanical strength and chemical stability, with leading companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology and Qingtao Energy achieving vehicle verification; the polymer route offers good flexibility but has low room temperature conductivity, mainly serving as auxiliary support for flexible scenarios; the sulfide route boasts the highest room temperature ion conductivity (up to 10^-2 S/cm) and a wide electrochemical window, making it the most suitable for high energy density and fast charging needs in automotive applications, thus being the long-term core track for fully solid-state batteries. Application Scenarios: Downstream Applications Penetrating Layered Markets, Automotive Storage as the Foundation, Low-altitude and Siasun Robot & Automation Fields Expected to Lead Initial Scale The report posits that the commercialization of solid-state batteries follows the logic of "high-cost tolerance for niche scenarios first, with widespread market expansion following cost decreases": in the short term, industries such as low-altitude economy, embodied intelligence, and commercial aerospace are expected to land first; in the medium to long term, new energy vehicles and energy storage will form core demand. The demand for new energy vehicles accounts for about 70%, with Hainan's ban on fuel vehicles by 2030 opening up regional growth; energy storage is expected to account for 15%-20%, with safety and long cycle attributes highly matching the rigid demands of the energy storage industry, thus ensuring ample long-term demand space. Industrial Chain: Value Expected to Be Released Sequentially, Equipment and Materials to Benefit First The value of the solid-state battery industrial chain is expected to be released in phases. On the equipment side, due to the introduction of new processes such as dry-process electrodes, isostatic pressing, and stacking, the ratio of production line transformations is as high as 80%-90%. The value of equipment per GWh is estimated to be 3-5 times that of liquid batteries, leading to early benefits from peaks in pilot line and mass production line construction, showcasing rapid market growth. On the materials side, solid-state electrolytes (especially sulfides) and silicon-based anodes are core incremental segments. As the industry iterates from semi-solid to fully solid-state, the structure of electrolyte shipment volume may undergo a fundamental reversal, with silicon-based anodes becoming the mainstream choice due to their high specific capacity, likely ushering in rapid market expansion. On the battery cell side, with the highest manufacturing barriers, leading battery companies are expected to dominate the market landscape in the long term due to their technological accumulation and scale advantages. Risk Reminder: Breakthroughs in core technologies such as interfacial resistance of solid electrolytes may be less than expected, facing challenges in patent layout for domestic industrialization, competition from other new energy storage technology routes, and downstream demand falling short of expectations.